Capitol View for February 12

Good morning. The Capitol is quiet no more.

Lawmakers are flocking back for a legislative session that could run up to May 20. Dana Ferguson has MPR’s curtain-raiser . The upshot is that there’s less money to go around, there is more tamping down of expectations and it’s an election year. It’ll all combine to make it harder for substantial legislation to power through in the same fashion as 2023. House Speaker Melissa Hortman put it this way: “So if you think about budget year 2023, it is like a snake eating a hedgehog. For a while, this snake is not going to be eating anything else — not like a mouse or anything — because it has to digest the hedgehog.” Sounds appetizing.

Don’t mistake bill introductions for a signal of what’s really in play. Remember, there were 6,707 introductions in the House and Senate last year combined – sure some were companion files – and those were funneled way down. Already on the first day of 2024, there are 442 bills going in, more in the House than in the Senate . But that doesn’t mean partisans won’t use an introduction or a press conference about one to call out the other party’s priorities. Again, it’s an election year, so campaign themes will be on a fever pitch.

Case in point: The immigration legislation to make Minnesota a sanctuary state that limits cooperation with federal authorities faces resistance. It has been featured prominently by DFLers and Republicans in the session run-up. But the path ahead is difficult. A pair of DFLers from the Iron Range – Sen. Grant Hauschild and Rep. Dave Lislegard – made clear over the weekend that they won’t support it. That’s a big blow in the Senate, where one DFL senator can hold back bills given a scant 34-33 majority. Republicans have also come out en masse against it, but it’s also the type of bill they’ll want to see an eventual floor vote on to get as many lawmakers on record as possible.

No session goes exactly as leaders draw it up. Issues spring onto the radar or fall off unexpectedly. As lawmakers clock in for the year, here are some of the items we expect to see get ample debate.

Meanwhile, implementation of things approved in 2023 continues. As part of our North Star Journey series, Mark Zdechlik reports how a pair of programs approved and funded at the Legislature last year could be the key to ending racial disparities in homeownership. Minnesota’s Black homeownership rate peaked in 1950 and since then, the gap between Black and white homeownership has widened to nearly 50 percent. The $150 million in funding for the program will go toward assistance, including forgivable, zero-interest down payment loan money for what are considered first-generation home buyers and those who lost their home to foreclosure.

Did we mention it’s an election year? The presidential race will tower over all things. The weekend produced many more headlines there. Republican frontrunner Donald Trump caused waves among U.S. allies by saying he’s unwilling to commit to NATO efforts to hold back future Russian incursions, saying that protection would be tied to the level of defense spending by member countries. For President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies, that special counsel report that dwelled some on his mental sharpness remains a point of contention.

Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race isn’t on handicapper lists of one to watch, at least not now. And on the ladder of states where national group investments come into play, it might have fallen even further down. On Friday, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan declared his Republican candidacy for an open seat, which Democrats now might have to spend money on to defend a reliable Senate seat. Montana, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all places where Democrats are on defense. Arizona is an odd one given that Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema is running but could be in a lively three-way race. For Democrats, West Virginia is as good as gone.