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| Tuesday, October 11, 2022 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I would like to start things off today by pointing out that I didn't get any sleep last night because I spent the entire night trying to figure out what constitutes roughing the passer in the NFL. If you breath on Tom Brady, you'll be penalized. If you literally take the football from Derek Carr's hands, you will be penalized even though you technically are no longer the defender anymore because you have the ball. |
| That second one happened last night during the Chiefs' wild 30-29 win over the Raiders. We'll be covering the controversial call against Chris Jones, plus the postgame situation involving Davante Adams and much more in today's newsletter, so let's get to the rundown. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. |
| 1. Today's show: Recapping the Chiefs' wild win over the Raiders |
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| The Chiefs had a wild win over the Raiders on Monday night and the only thing crazier than the game was the podcast we recorded afterward. Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and I spent roughly 45 minutes going over every major aspect of Kansas City's win. |
| With that in mind, here are three key things from the game that we talked about during the podcast: |
Travis Kelce makes history as Chiefs storm back from 17-point deficit. The Chiefs got off to an ugly start -- trailing 17-0 at one point -- but a controversial roughing-the-passer call against Chris Jones late in the second quarter seemed to spark them to a win (We'll cover the penalty a little bit later). After the call, the Chiefs stormed back thanks to the unstoppable combination of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes with ALL FOUR of them going to his tight end. For Kelce, he set the Monday night record for most touchdown catches, he tied the Chiefs record for most receiving touchdowns in a game and he finished with the second most touchdown catches by a tight end in a single game in NFL history. Kelce finished the night with seven catches for 25 yards, giving him the NFL record for fewest receiving yards by a player with four TD catches. As for Mahomes, he completed passes to nine different receivers on a night where he threw for 292 yards. Raiders go toe to toe with Chiefs offense thanks to two star players. This game turned into a shootout, and the Raiders were able to stay in it thanks to Josh Jacobs (154 rushing yards) and Davante Adams (124 receiving yards, two touchdowns). The two scores by Adams both came in big spots. The first one came on a fourth-and-1 in the first quarter that Derek Carr converted by throwing a 58-yard TD to Adams. The receiver's other TD came with just under 4:30 to play on a 48-yard score that cut Kansas City's lead to 30-29. As for Jacobs, he averaged 7.3 yards per carry on a night where he steamrolled the Chiefs defense. Jacobs was so good that it was stunning that he didn't get the ball on the Raiders' final offensive possession when all they needed to do to keep their drive alive was convert a fourth-and-1. Josh McDaniels showed off his bold side. The Raiders coach gambled quite a few times in this game, but not every gamble paid off. In the first quarter, McDaniels decided to go for it on fourth-and-1 and it paid off handsomely when Carr hit Adams for a 58-yard TD to give Vegas an early 7-0 lead. McDaniels made an even bigger gamble in the fourth quarter when he decided to go for two after his team scored a TD with just 4:27 left to play. If the Raiders had converted, they would have gone up 31-30, but Josh Jacobs got stopped just short of the goal line. McDaniels also took another gamble on the Raiders' final offensive play. On fourth-and-1 with 47 seconds left, McDaniels called for a deep pass when the team just needed a SINGLE YARD to keep the drive alive. At that point, the Raiders were only about 15 yards from being in field goal range, so going deep didn't make a ton of sense. The play ended up failing because Hunter Renfrow and Adams ran into each other (which you can see by clicking here). Controversial roughing call was one of two crazy penalties in the game. The play that everyone is talking about was a controversial roughing-the-passer call that went against Kansas City's Chris Jones, which you can see here . On the play, Jones stripped the ball from Derek Carr and then gained possession of it, but he still got called for roughing the passer because he landed on top of Carr. The problem with the rule is that if it was enforced correctly, then that means that NFL rulebook essentially made it illegal for Jones to recover a fumble in that situation. It was a bizarre sequence, but possibly not the craziest penalty called in the game. The Raiders also got hit with a controversial penalty. On a fourth-and-14 play for the Chiefs, kicker Matthew Wright missed a 36-yard field goal, but Kansas City got a first down after the Raiders were flagged for defensive holding on A FIELD GOAL. The Raiders were the first team SINCE 2015 to get hit with that exact penalty. If you want to see what defensive holding on a field goal looks like, be sure to click here. Davante Adams could face legal and league repercussions for postgame actions. Following the Raiders' loss, Adams was on his way to the locker room when he pushed a photographer who stepped in front of him (You can see the push here ). Adams did apologize, but that might not save him from a punishment. For one, the photographer has filed a police report, according to NFL Media. Police in Kansas City are now going to investigate the incident to determine if assault charges should be filed against the Raiders receiver. Also, the NFL is now reviewing the situation for possible discipline, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones has reported.
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| We talked about those three things, plus everything else you could possibly want to know about Monday's game. If you want to listen to the rest of our recap, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 6 |
| The biggest winner in this week's power rankings is definitely the Big Apple. For possibly the first time in the history of Prisco's Power Rankings, both New York teams are ranked in the top 15. Overall, Prisco did some major reshuffling in his power rankings this week and that includes at the top where there are TWO new teams in the top five. |
| Here's a look at Prisco's top-five teams heading into Week 6: |
| EaglesBillsChiefsBuccaneers (Up from No. 6 last week) Vikings (Up from No. 7 last week) |
| Dropped out: Packers, Dolphins. |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the power rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since last week. |
The biggest jump this week went to the New York Jets. After thrashing the Dolphins 40-17 on Sunday, Prisco rewarded them by moving them up TWELVE SPOTS from 26th to 14th. That's a big jump for a team that only beat a third-string quarterback, but I won't fight it, because the Jets have looked decent this year. In other New York news, the biggest jump in the NFC went to the Giants, who have officially cracked the top 10. Following their win over the Packers in Week 5, Prisco moved them up eight spots from 16th to eighth. The biggest drop in Prisco's Power Rankings went to the Jaguars. The Jags lost to the NFL's only winless team (Houston) and Prisco punished them accordingly by dropping them 12 spots from 14th to 26th. As for the bottom of the rankings, we have a new team in the NFL cellar! The Texans were ranked last, but after picking up their first win, Prisco moved them up to 25th. The new last-place team is the Washington Commanders.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 6 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
| 3. Breech's Week 6 picks: Cowboys shock undefeated Eagles |
| If it's Tuesday, that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| If this is your first season with us, here's how the formula works around here: I stay up until an insane hour every Monday night so that I can give you my picks every Tuesday morning. This newsletter will feature three of my picks, and then if you feel like reading the rest of them, you can do that below. |
| Last week, I predicted that the Texans would win their first game of the season and that's exactly what happened, so let's just go ahead and assume that all of my picks will be right this week. |
| Here are three of my picks for Week 6: |
| Commanders at Bears (Pick'em) (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime): The forward pass has been used in football for more than 115 years, but apparently, no one has told the Bears about it. The Bears have one of the worst passing offenses in football this year, but this week, they might actually be able to throw the ball because they're playing a Washington team that can't stop the pass. The Bears are playing at home in prime time and they'll be wearing their awesome orange helmets and I can't pick against a team wearing awesome orange helmets. PICK: Bears 20-17 over Commanders. Bills (-2.5) at Chiefs (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): This feels like a revenge game for the Bills. They were 13 seconds away from beating the Chiefs in the playoffs last year, but then Patrick Mahomes happened. After that loss, the Bills basically went into the offseason with one goal on their mind and that was to create a team that could beat Patrick Mahomes. I think they have created that team. PICK: Bills 38-31 over Chiefs. Cowboys (+5) at Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC): The Cowboys keep winning with Cooper Rush and I feel like I have to keep backing them until something changes. Every week, they win the same way: They dominate on defense and they don't make mistakes on offense. One reason why I think this game will be close is because the Cowboys haven't given up 20 points in a single game this year. They've held Tom Brady, Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford all below 20 points so I think this could be a low-scoring battle. If it turns into a shootout, the Eagles will likely roll, but I think the Cowboys defense will keep that from happening. PICK: Cowboys 20-19 over Eagles. |
| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 6, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. NFL hot seat rankings: Here's who has the hottest seat now that Matt Rhule has been fired |
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| For the first five weeks of the NFL season, Matt Rhule was at the top of our hot seat rankings, but his seat finally exploded on Monday when he was fired by the Panthers. With Rhule out in Carolina, that means there's a new face on top of our rankings this week. |
| Cody Benjamin put together our hot seat rankings this week and here's a look at the top-five coaches on his list: |
| 1. Commanders coach Ron Rivera. "The once-heralded defensive mind last led a winning record in 2017 with the Panthers, and the defensive units he's entrusted to Jack Del Rio the last two years have been porous. More than that, he's failed, like Rhule, to identify an adequate short- or long-term answer at QB. He may be beloved as a man, but Rivera's days as a coach look numbered."2. Raiders coach Josh McDaniels. "Wins are tough to come by in the AFC West, and the ex-Patriots assistant has failed to oversee even an efficient unit on his preferred offensive side of the ball."3. Texans coach Lovie Smith. "Houston has shown fight in every game this year, but team brass would almost assuredly prefer an ascending offensive mind, not an aging defensive one, for the long haul."4. Colts coach Frank Reich. "General manager Chris Ballard probably deserves more blame for the construction of Indy's lineup, which saddled an aging, declining QB with a declining O-line and virtually barren receiving corps. Owner Jim Irsay watched as Reich vouched for -- and failed to revive -- Carson Wentz prior to the Matt Ryan experiment, and he's still struggling to stay ahead of a wide-open AFC South."5. Lions coach Dan Campbell. "How much goodwill can locker room energy buy you? Campbell feels invincible as a Detroit spokesman thanks to consistent investment from his players, and the offense has undoubtedly improved this year. But at some point, you just need to win." |
| To see Cody's full list of coaches on the hot seat, be sure to click here. |
| 5. NFL Week 5: Overreaction or reality (Ron Rivera, Jerry Jones) |
| Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 5 to decide if we're all overreacting. |
Situation: The Giants are actually a good football team.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Giants are well-coached by Brian Daboll and the coaching staff he put together. Mike Kafka is an innovator and creative play caller and Wink Martindale has transformed that defense into a unit that makes key stops and is always in position to make plays." |
Situation: The Titans are the best team in the AFC South.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Tennessee might be the best team in this bad division, but maybe it's Jacksonville (even though the Jaguars lost to Houston). It also could be the Colts, who are stringing together wins behind poor quarterback play and an inept offensive line. The Titans have not scored a point in the fourth quarter through five games, which has to change if Tennessee is going to win consistently. Through five games, we really don't know who the best team in the AFC South is. The Titans, however, do sit in first place." |
Situation: Bailey Zappe should start over Mac Jones.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Bailey Zappe got the crowd rocking at Gillette Stadium on Sunday after going 17 of 21 for 188 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the Patriots' 29-0 shutout win. The Patriots didn't punt until the fourth quarter and Zappe did a good job against zone coverage, but here's the reality: He did it against the worst defense in the NFL and the Lions were losing defensive backs throughout the game (five total)." |
| There are plenty more of overreactions from Week 5 and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Rapid-fire roundup: Ron Rivera throws Carson Wentz under the bus |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Commanders coach makes interesting comments about his QB. Ron Rivera was asked why other NFC East teams are doing better than the Commanders right now and he blamed Washington's struggles on the quarterback position. Rivera essentially said that the other three teams have had more time to build around their quarterback and although he might technically be correct, he's likely not going to win any points in the locker room for his comments. You can check everything he had to say here. Jerry Jones shuts down talk of a QB controversy. Speaking of NFC East quarterbacks, there is no QB controversy in Dallas. Jerry Jones made it clear on Monday that the job will belong to Dak Prescott once he's cleared to play. Of course, Jones could always change his mind if Cooper Rush beats the Eagles on Sunday. Baker Mayfield has a high ankle sprain. The Panthers won't have their head coach or their starting QB from Week 5 on the field for Week 6. Their head coach has been fired and Mayfield will likely miss at least a week or two after suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 5, according to NFL.com.
Seahawks kickoff time could change. The Seahawks are scheduled to kick off at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, but apparently, that could change. According to Pete Carroll, the time could change so that the Seahawks don't conflict with the Mariners, who could be hosting Game 4 of the American League Divisional Series on Sunday.
Tua not ready for 'football stuff' yet. It's looking more and more like Tua Tagovailoa will be sitting out at least one more week. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Tuesday that Tua still isn't ready for "football stuff." With Teddy Bridgewater also in concussion protocol, the Dolphins could be forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson against the Vikings this week. |
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