| The stocks getting hit hardest | Sprint runs like the wind |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for January 28th in 3:12 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a kadak chai at Prithvi Café in Mumbai, India (27°C/80°F ⛅️)

Today's big stories

  1. Global markets dropped as the coronavirus continued to spread across China, signaling trouble for travel, restaurant, and luxury goods firms
  2. Apple are reporting their quarterly earnings tomorrow, so it's the ideal time to get up to speed on their fundamentals – Read Now
  3. Sprint reported better-than-expected earnings, but investors don’t think its merger with T-Mobile US will go through
1/3

Sorry, We’re Closed

Sorry, We’re Closed

What’s Going On Here?

Investors ditched their stocks on Monday, as the deadly coronavirus continued to disrupt the Chinese – and global – economy.

What Does This Mean?

Chinese authorities confirmed on Monday that the virus has killed 80 people and infected almost 3,000 more. And they warned its spread could accelerate still, what with the millions of people traveling for Lunar New Year celebrations – trips that've also taken the virus abroad.

To keep the situation from getting worse, the government is extending the New Year holiday. Many firms won’t reopen until the end of next week, while shops, restaurants, and theme parks – yes, even Disneyland – have closed their doors.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Bad for business.  
It’s hard to know how much financial harm the outbreak could do, but the 2003 SARS epidemic ended up costing the global economy about $50 billion. China-reliant luxury goods companies are particularly at risk, which might be why Burberry and Hermès’s shares slipped 5% on Monday. Restaurants could be hit hard too, says investment bank Goldman Sachs – as could manufacturers like Honda and Groupe PSA (maker of Peugeot cars). They’ve had to suspend operations, which will impact their supply chain even when things get back to normal. Stocks across multiple industries could suffer as a result, though Goldman points out that after past epidemics, shares rebounded within four months (tweet this).

The bigger picture: Volatile reaction.
Investors – afraid the virus might impact China’s economic growth – have started to panic. A measure of the US stock market’s volatility shot up almost 30% on Monday, as investors sold off their stocks. The virus isn’t entirely responsible: tensions between America and Iran also rose over the weekend after an attack on the US embassy in Iraq. That would normally lead to a spike in oil prices, but seeing as the virus is reducing travel – and therefore oil demand – oil producers are instead trying to keep the price from falling.

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2/3 Premium Story

Earnings Season

All this week, our analysts will be bringing you the latest earnings updates from the biggest names in tech.

First up is Apple. So to make sure you’re up to speed on the company’s fundamentals – its performance so far, its potential for growth, the biggest risks it faces – take a look at our dedicated Pack, Where Does Apple Go Next. You’ll find out:

  • What Apple’s planning now it’s banked $1 trillion in iPhone revenue
  • Why services’ higher profit margin is key to its future growth
  • How its cash flow could turn it into the next AT&T


With Finimize Premium, you’ll be able to read or listen to our breakdown of Apple, along with every other company we’re covering in the next week. And we’re giving all our newsletter subscribers 30% off when they join. Get the key insights

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3/3

Hands Off

Hands Off

What’s Going On Here?

Phone carrier Sprint announced better-than-expected earnings on Monday, but its planned merger with T-Mobile US is looking less and less likely to come to pass.

What Does This Mean?

Sprint reached 2019’s finish line with tired legs but an optimistic outlook: it made a loss last quarter just like it did in 2018, but that loss was both smaller than the year before and smaller than investors expected. The company’s “churn” numbers looked particularly good: the company lost 45,000 fewer subscribers than expected, thanks to the cheaper plans it offered.

Then again, those cheaper plans might have something to do with why Sprint’s revenue missed expectations – perhaps, in turn, the reason the phone carrier’s share price fell. Well, that, and the $27 billion merger that seems ready to collapse…

Why Should I Care?

Zooming out: Dial M for merger.
For the past two years, rival T-Mobile’s been trying to buy Sprint: the firms think they can better compete against communications juggernauts AT&T and Verizon if they team up. But US regulators are skeptical, and several states are trying to stop the deal. Unlike AT&T’s approved “vertical merger” with Time Warner – which involved two non-competing firms linking up – this deal is a “horizontal merger”, in which two direct competitors join forces. So although T-Mobile and Sprint argue they need scale to invest in 5G, the deal’s critics expect less competition to lead to higher prices for consumers.

For markets: Deal or no deal?
Investors seem to think regulators will agree with the naysayers. Sprint’s stock price is currently around 70% below the price T-Mobile is offering to pay for its shares. If investors thought the deal was likely, they’d be buying Sprint’s shares in the hope of making money from selling to T-Mobile. The fact they’re not taking advantage of that “arbitrage” suggests they think the deal will fall through. They’ll know soon enough: all that’s left is for the judge to make his decision.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The test of good manners is to be patient with the bad ones.”

– Solomon ibn Gabirol (an Andalusian poet and Jewish philosopher)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: North By Northwest

“Will UK stock markets drop when it leaves the EU on Friday?”

– Maddie in Argentina

“Probably not, Maddie. While Brexit has put UK markets on edge for years now, ‘Brexit Day’ is the sure thing investors have been craving. That means it’s been ‘priced in’ to the market – that is, the impact of the event is already reflected in stock prices. If anything, markets are just happy the UK has secured a deal at all, and that business will carry on as usual until the withdrawal period ends in December. It’ll then be up to investors to figure out whether a deal can be agreed beyond that – because if trade agreements expire at the end of the year, that really could cause stock markets to drop.”

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⚡️ Lightning insights

The average drug’s journey from concept to creation is 12 years, so your biotech investments might take a while to pay off.

But if they do, they could give your portfolio the shot in the arm it needs. It’s all about knowing which companies are most likely to get the next big thing to market – and which have the fundamentals to survive even when that blockbuster drug is nowhere to be seen. It’s a tricky industry, but our Pack, Investing in Biotech, makes it straightforward. Read Investing in Biotech

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