Cliff-Diving Continues For New Home Sales, Now Down to 2016 Levels

The headline conveys the thesis quite well when it comes to the New Residential Sales data just released by the Census Bureau. July's total fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 511k, down from 585k last month and well below the median forecast of 575k. This is the slowest pace of sales since early 2016. Sales are divided into 4 areas of the country. The South added 342k of the 511k while the West added 98k. Both were down more than 12% month over month--more than enough to tank the national number. Incidentally, the Midwest's 54k contribution was more than 20% lower while the Northeast improved 13.3% with a 17k unit annual pace. Put 'em together and whaddaya got? Ouch. Notably, this is NEW home sales--not to be confused with Existing Home Sales, which comprise a far bigger portion of the market (although they've also tanked). Price shifts are getting interesting as well. In outright terms, things still look boomy. Even when we calculate the year-over-year percent change, prices are still rising, but the pace of appreciation is now moving decisively lower, back into a range that had at least been a part of reality during the past two price booms. The chart above is a bit "busy." We can smooth it out by applying a 4-month moving average. One thing to keep in mind on the price metrics in New and Existing home sales data is that they are not adjusted with the same apples to apples approach found in the housing market's most widely followed price indices. For example, if builders are focusing on smaller homes, that could create some additional downward pressure on median prices.

August 23, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Cliff-Diving Continues For New Home Sales, Now Down to 2016 Levels The headline conveys the thesis quite well when it comes to the New Residential Sales data just released by the Census Bureau. July's total fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 511k, down from 585k last month and well below the median forecas... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Little-Changed at Recent Highs Today's mortgage rates are roughly in line with yesterday's for the average lender. Some are in better shape while others are slightly worse off depending on yesterday's late-day changes. This refers to the occasional necessity for a mortgage ... (read more) MBS Commentary Fun While it Lasted: Bonds Give Up Data-Inspired Gains Fun While it Lasted: Bonds Give Up Data-Inspired Gains Bonds started out weaker early this morning but were able to make gains after weaker economic data at 9:45am and 10:00am. Prices were almost a quar... (read more) Rob Chrisman Subservicing, Profitability, Servicing Products; Investor's Conventional Conforming Changes Mortgage rates dropped after mid-June. Momentarily switching gears, given their role in cakes, breakfasts, custards, and breads, if eggs didn’t exist, would a food scientist have to had invented them? I mention this because the benchmark price of egg... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Little-Changed at Recent Highs 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.73% +0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.73% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.01% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.12% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.90% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.88% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.14% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/23 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.01% -0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.30% -0.40 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.45% -0.38 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.19% -0.31 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.45% -0.02 0.57 15 Yr. Fixed 4.87% +0.13 0.64 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.14% +0.05 0.33 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/17 MBS / Treasuries Fun While it Lasted: Bonds Give Up Data-Inspired Gains UMBS 30YR 4.0 98.28 -0.06 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.0 98.28 -0.06 UMBS 4.5 99.92 -0.03 GNMA 4.0 99.14 -0.08 GNMA 4.5 100.47 -0.08 Pricing as of: 8/23 5:41PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.0572 +0.0334 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.302 -0.014 5 YR Treasury 3.179 +0.014 7 YR Treasury 3.145 +0.028 10 YR Treasury 3.057 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 3.263 +0.031 Pricing as of: 8/23 5:41PM EST Latest Video You'll still see rent growth for the next three to five years, says real es... The Fed needs to use its balance sheet, not rate hikes, to improve the econ... Cracks develop in the housing market The 2pm Bond Report - August 23, 2022 Around the Web CNBC 72% of recent homebuyers have regrets about their purchases. As the market cools, these steps can help you avoid disappointment CNBC We're in a 'housing recession,' experts say. Here's what that means for homeowners, sellers and buyers CNBC 10-year Treasury yield holds above 3% as investors await economic data Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory August 29th Update: Growth has Slowed Calculated Risk Blog Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July Calculated Risk Blog Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC 59% of Americans worry student loan forgiveness will make inflation worse, CNBC survey finds Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 27% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15% CNBC U.S. Treasury yields move lower as investors look ahead to Jackson Hole symposium Eye on Housing Jump for Multifamily Rental Development CNBC European markets set for slightly lower open as Fed hike fears resurface Fannie Mae Weak Growth Continues as Housing Slows Fannie Mae Economy Constrained by Competing Effects of Elevated Inflation and Strong Labor Market

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