In today's CMU Daily: Warner Music has confirmed that it recently made an offer to buy Believe, upsetting founder and CEO Denis Ladegaillerie’s own efforts to take the company back into private ownership. Does Warner really want it though, and can it afford it if it does?

One Liners: Nick Cave, Haddaway, AntsLive, Högni Egilsson, Esme Emerson deals; Ivors Academy, Native Music appointments; UK budget responses; JKBX launch; Dave Rowntree to stand as MP; Girl In Red tour dates; new music from Mura Masa, Alice Ivy & Låpsley, King Hannah, Mal Not Bad, Breed 77

Also today: NMPA says it won't renew its TikTok licensing deal; Spotify is huffily putting up prices in France (a little); new proposals in US to introduce performer ER on streaming

Plus: Earth Tongue are CMU Approved

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WMG is toying with an offer for Believe that would wipe out Warner’s cash reserves - but is it serious, would Believe shareholders sell and can WMG afford to bet the farm?

There’s nothing like a high stakes boardroom battle to liven things up - and in a (sort of, but not really) surprise announcement today, Warner Music Group has really delivered the goods. It wants to buy Believe in a deal that would wipe out Warner’s cash reserves while attempting to outbid Believe founder and CEO Denis Ladegaillerie’s own offer to buy out shareholders and take the company private.

A month ago independent distributor and artist services business Believe - currently listed on the Paris stock exchange - said it was going to go private in a deal led by Ladegaillerie. This would see the company delist from the stock market and existing shareholders get a huge premium for their shares.

A consortium of investors led by Ladegaillerie has offered €15 per share - more than 50% higher than the previous 120-day average share price. Everything looked rosy - until Warner Music Group popped up with a higher offer, sending the share price soaring. But can WMG afford to buy Believe - and would Believe shareholders sell to the major?

In a statement released by WMG today, the mini-major positions its offer as being better than “the purely financial transaction” proposed by Ladegaillerie, because WMG could offer Believe “strategic support and financial stability” as well as “accelerating its expansion into new geographies”. The combination of WMG and Believe, says WMG, would be “beneficial” to both Believe and the “shareholders, employees, artists and labels” associated with Believe.

WMG would, says the statement, be happy to pay cash - and an additional premium over what Ladegaillerie and his consortium were offering - with Warner proposing €17 a share.

As the markets opened in Paris, Believe’s share price leapt up from yesterday’s close of €15.60 to peak at €16.70 before dropping back slightly. At time of publication the share price is €16.30, up just over 5% from yesterday’s close.

It’s not a huge surprise that Warner might be interested in buying Believe - click through to find out why...

AEG Europe // Strategy And Insights Analyst (London)

AEG Presents // Tour Accountant, International Touring (London)

Kilimanjaro Live // Event Coordinator (London Hybrid)

Horizon is CMU's new weekly newsletter - published each Friday - that brings you a hand-picked selection of early-stage career opportunities from across the music industry.

Whether you're looking for your first job in music or you're ready to take a step up, Horizon is here to help you find your dream job faster.

👉 Click through to see the current selection.

ONE LINERS

Budget responses, Nick Cave And The Bad Seeds, Girl In Red + more

DEALS

Play It Again Sam has announced a deal with Nick Cave And The Bad Seeds to release the band’s new album ‘Wild God’ under a worldwide licensing agreement. “I have been a massive fan of Nick Cave since the early days of Play It Again Sam when we were importing his Birthday Party albums and it is the realisation of a long held dream to partner with one of my all-time musical heroes”, says Kenny Gates, founder and CEO of parent company [PIAS]. New single ‘Wild God’ is out now.

BMG has acquired the catalogue of German record label Coconut Music, which includes the recorded music rights of Haddaway. BMG previously acquired Haddway’s recording royalties in 2022. “We are delighted to become custodians of Coconut’s 2500 track catalogue and especially [Haddaway’s 1993 hit] ‘What Is Love’”, says BMG EVP Repertoire & Marketing Continental Europe Maximilian Kolb. “It is one of the most influential tracks in the whole Europop movement and - as seen in David Guetta’s successful homage last year - it still very much resonates with music fans today. We look forward to ensuring its place in music history”.

Warner Chappell has signed AntsLive to a worldwide publishing deal “I’m grateful to be kicking off the year by joining the Warner Chappell roster”, he says. “They all get my vision, so I know we’ll get the best out of each other as we create new projects together this year”.

Wise Music Group’s new Icelandic office has signed composer Högni Egilsson to a worldwide publishing deal. "Wise Music, with their broad perspective and rich experience, stands at the crossroads of tradition and innovation”, he says. “As artistry lies not just in composition, but in the integrity of its presentation, I am deeply grateful to be working with Wise as my new publishing partner”.

Communion Records has signed Esme Emerson - aka sibling duo Esme and Emerson Lee-Scott. Their first release for the label is new single ‘Please’, with a full EP due later in the year. “‘Please’ is about young, queer love”, says Esme. “It’s about all the tentative moments and shame that comes with something so confusing yet simple. It’s about feeling unsure and wrong, angry and gentle. It’s about such a pure and sweet emotion, but how that feeling can sit so sickly and rotten in your gut”.

APPOINTMENTS

UK songwriter organisation The Ivors Academy has appointed Roberto Neri as its new Chief Executive Officer. He’s had a long career in music rights with Downtown, Utopia and most recently Believe. “I am deeply honoured and humbled to step into the role of CEO of The Ivors Academy”, he says. “It is a dream job to fervently advocate for and represent songwriters and composers, who I have been fortunate enough to represent for over two decades globally. I believe now, more than ever, is the pivotal moment to ensure music creators’ interests are protected, championed, valued and recognised for their central and indispensable role in the success of the entire music business”.

Native Music has hired Sophie Faricy as Executive Producer / Music Supervisor. She joins from Cavendish Music. “I am beyond THRILLED to transition into the realm of commercial music supervision and to be joining such a warm, creative and hugely respected team”, she says. “Renowned across the industry for their total ease of doing business without ego, I’m looking forward to contributing fresh energy to the company and expanding the client base, whilst uncovering new opportunities for Native”.

LIVE BUSINESS

The music industry has responded to the latest budget statement from the UK government, which was delivered by Chancellor Of The Exchequer Jeremy Hunt yesterday. There was one positive in the budget, the extension of orchestra tax relief. However, the big ask from the live sector - a cut in the VAT charged on tickets - was ignored, meaning the industry’s response has mainly been negative. There also remain calls from some parts of the industry for other tax relief schemes to benefit the wider music community. Read the various responses here.

ROYALTIES

JKBX, the new music rights investment platform headed up by The Orchard founder Scott Cohen, has formally launched having got approval from the US Securities & Exchange Commission. It soft launched last year. The platform allows anyone to buy shares in music royalties from songs recorded by artists including Beyonce, Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran, OneRepublic, and more. "I love the idea that music fans will be able to participate in the success of some of music's greatest hits, alongside artists, writers and producers”, says OneRepublic frontman Ryan Tedder. "JKBX has done the hard work to make this possible in a safe and secure way, and I’m so excited for the fans as they get access to this part of the industry”.

ARTIST NEWS

Blur drummer Dave Rowntree has been selected as the Labour candidate for Mid Sussex. "We think Dave will be an excellent and a very successful candidate”, said a spokesperson for the Mid Sussex Labour Party. He will stand to become an MP at the upcoming General Election in the currently Conservative-held seat.

GIGS & FESTIVALS

Girl In Red has announced UK shows later this year, including a performance at Wembley Arena in London on 3 Sep. Tickets go on general sale on 15 Mar.

RELEASES

Mura Masa has released new single ‘Still’.

Alice Ivy and Låpsley have teamed up for new single ‘Popstar’, released to coincide with tomorrow’s International Women’s Day.

King Hannah will release their second album ‘Big Swimmer’ on 31 May. The title track, which features Sharon Van Etten, is out now. They are also set to play Rich Mix in London on 25 Sep.

Mal Not Bad has released new single ‘No Worries’. The track is taken from her debut album 'This Is Your New Life', which is due out later this year.

Breed 77 are back - having gone on hiatus in 2015 - with new single ‘End Of the Line’. They’ve also announced UK tour dates in May.

US publisher group doesn't plan to renew its TikTok licensing deal

The US National Music Publishers Association has told its members that it doesn't anticipate renewing its framework licensing agreement with big bad TikTok, meaning any independent publishers currently utilising that agreement will need to negotiate their own new deal with the social media platform. Or alternatively demand that their songs be removed and sign up to attend Universal Music's regular TikTok diss parties.

In an update to members, NMPA states that its current TikTok agreement expires on 30 Apr and "at this time, we do not anticipate that there will be an option to renew or extend the current NMPA licences or participate in a new licence with TikTok through NMPA. NMPA members should make their own business determination whether to engage directly with TikTok to negotiate a licence beyond 30 Apr 2024".

The update also notes that "recently the press has highlighted concerns around TikTok’s licensing practices, concerns that NMPA has heard directly from many of our members". That relates to the big bust up between Universal Music and TikTok.

Having failed to agree a new licensing deal with TikTok, Universal has accused the social media firm of undervaluing music and failing to deal with its concerns about AI and platform safety. The fall out first resulted in Universal controlled recordings being pulled from TikTok. Then the songs that are published and licensed by Universal Music Publishing had to be removed.

Removing songs published by Universal means that the stand-off between the major and TikTok impacts on other labels, whose artists have recorded versions of songs in part owned by the major. If US independent publishers currently licensing TikTok via the NMPA agreement decide not to negotiate their own direct deals with the platform, more songs will need to be removed, impacting more labels that still have TikTok deals in place.

NMPA has negotiated a number of framework licensing agreements with digital platforms over the years on behalf of its members, which can then choose whether or not to participate in those licences. The trade group usually gets involved with digital platforms that cannot rely on a combination of licences from the US collecting societies like BMI and ASCAP, and the compulsory licence administered by the MLC that covers mechanical rights for audio services.

It's not clear how many publishers are currently part of the NMPA's TikTok licence and it remains to be seen how many use this as an opportunity to ally with Universal on the big boycott, and how many seek their own deals instead.

While NMPA won't be able to help those publishers who want to go the licensing route with TikTok, it is offering advice to the boycotters. It adds, "Starting 1 May 2024, any members who are not licensed with TikTok and would like to discuss enforcement options can contact attorneys at NMPA".

CMU Approved: Earth Tongue

New Zealand duo Earth Tongue released their debut album ‘Floating Being’ in 2019, establishing their fuzzed up psych-rock sound with twin vocals from guitarist Gussie Larkin and drummer Ezra Simons.

Things have subsequently been largely quiet on the recordings front, with 2022 single ‘Miraculous Death’ their only release since then. That’s all about the change though, with the arrival of new track ‘Bodies Dissolve Tonight!’ and the announcement of their second album ‘Great Haunting’.

Despite the five year gap, the new single doesn’t deviate far from the sound of that debut album. But when you nailed it so hard first time around, why would you? “It's been a long time coming but we hope that you'll agree it's been worth the wait”, they say. And indeed it is.

‘Bodies Dissolve Tonight!’ kicks in with fast-paced ferocity, briefly holding itself back before going all in again. It’s an immediately exciting experience that will have you hankering for their live show. Luckily, they have UK dates coming up in May, including performances at Desertfest and The Great Escape.

🎧 Watch the video for ‘Bodies Dissolve Tonight!’ here

France has stood firm against Spotify’s bullying - and Spotify is having a tantrum

Back in December Spotify’s head honcho in France, Antoine Monin, gave a blistering TV interview saying that the French government’s proposal to add a small levy to streaming subscriptions to help preserve a sustainable music industry in the country was a “monumental strategic error” and that, as a result, Spotify might “disinvest from France”. It then went on to rage-quit a bunch of festival sponsorship partnerships, and slash money allocated to artist marketing initiatives in France, in retaliation.

Three months on and the levy is coming into effect. Needless to say, Spotify doesn’t seem to be shutting up shop in France - despite laying off nearly 2000 employees globally just days before Christmas.

It has, however, true to form, rolled out yet another exhaustingly histrionic memo lashing out at what it calls the “CNM Tax”, because the cash generated by the levy will be administered by France’s Centre Nationale de la Musique, or CNM. “The French government decided that digital music streaming services will now have to pay a new tax in order to finance” the CNM, it declares.

“Perhaps you’ve never heard of the Center for National Music”, its press release then disingenuously muses, before laying into the organisation's budget and operating costs. “With the creation of this new tax”, whines Spotify, the company “would be required to give approximately two thirds of every euro it generates to music rights holders and the French government”. This is a “MASSIVE AMOUNT” shrieks Spotify, and “does not allow for a sustainable business”.

Given that Spotify used to make a big thing about the fact that it pays out about 70% of the revenue it generates to music rightsholders, it seems a little odd that Spotify is now trying to couch this as a negative drain on its precarious finances. Percentages and fractions are hard though, so maybe Ek hasn’t realised the two thirds is actually 66.67% - a full 3.33% lower than 70%. Numbers are hard!

That said, the company did actually switch to saying it paid out “two thirds” a while back, so maybe today’s horrifyingly unfair two thirds is different to the “we are great, look how much money we pay people” two thirds that they’ve been trumpting for the past couple of years. Maybe they actually meant four sixths and something got lost in translation between Swedish, French and English.

“As we’ve long said”, sobs Spotify, “we simply can’t absorb any additional taxes. Even after making the difficult decision to reduce our artist marketing budget and support of French music festivals” the MASSIVE AMOUNT OF TAX that Spotify is required to pay “continues to impede our ability to operate in France”.

As a result, anyone using the streaming service in France is going to have to pay more, says Spotify - though it doesn’t say how much more. Maybe it doesn’t have that number to hand right now, or maybe the number isn’t actually as important to Spotify as the opportunity to grandstand its whining about how unfair everything is and take pot shots at an organisation that actually supports artists and music making.

Spotify, of course, recently demonetised a whole swathe of independent music creators by imposing a ‘1000 streams from 500 unique users’ threshold - which may have devastating consequences for entire genres of music - and in particular specialist, traditional and classical music, as well as non-English language music creators with smaller audiences.

In reality, it’s more likely that it just doesn’t want to highlight the fact that the levy is just 1.2%. So a €10.99 subscription will go up by - brace yourself - a MASSIVE HORRIFYING AMOUNT of just 13 cents. That’s a whole €1.56 a year.

On 27 Jul 2023, Daniel Ek sold 675000 shares in Spotify for $100,001,250.

On 25 Oct 2023, Daniel Ek sold 400000 shares in Spotify for $64,208,000.

On 7 Feb 2024, Daniel Ek sold 250000 shares in Spotify for $57,505,000.

As of 31 Dec 2023, Daniel Ek held 30,856,376 shares in Spotify. Taking into account the February disposal of 250,000 shares, he would appear to hold 30,606,3756 shares in the company which - at today’s share price of €254.50 a share - are worth €7,513,865,308.

That’s enough to pay the levy for every single individual person in France - Spotify subscriber or not - for 71 years.

Setlist Podcast: UK music revenues are back to their CD peak (sort of)

On this week's show we discuss the news that UK music retail revenues are back to where they were at the peak of the CD era in 2001. So long as you imagine that no time has passed in between. Plus, the legal battle over Kanye West’s “shameless” interpolation of a Donna Summer track.

🎧 Click here to listen - or search for 'Setlist' wherever you normally listen

US Congress members propose new performer remuneration system funded by a streaming levy

Two members of US Congress have proposed a Living Wage For Musicians Act which would basically introduce performer equitable remuneration on streaming, but funded by a levy applied to streaming subscriptions. And a pretty significant levy at that - 50% of the current subscription fee.

"The popularity of streaming services has forever changed how people consume music and upended the economics of the industry in the process, creating a system of winners and losers that under compensates tens of thousands of recording artists and musicians for their art and labour", says an official statement from the Congress members proposing the act, Rashida Tlaib and Jamaal Bowman, who respectively represent Detroit and New York.

“Streaming services wouldn’t exist without the brilliant work of artists who choose to share their music with these platforms”, adds Bowman. "Artists and musicians across the country deserve to be paid for their work. I represent the Bronx, the birthplace of hip hop, where music is the foundation of our communities. They all deserve to be paid fairly for their incredible and transformative art".

Under the proposals, the act explains, each streaming service would charge each subscriber “an additional fee in an amount equal to 50% of the subscription fee charged by the service provider, except that such additional fee shall not be an amount less than $4 or more than $10".

The service would then pay the money generated by that levy - plus 10% of its non-subscription revenues - to a new entity that would be called the Artist Compensation Royalty Fund. That Fund would then make payments directly to performers, with 90% of monies flowing to the main artists on each track, and 10% flowing through to session musicians.

Music streaming is a revenue share business, with streaming services sharing their revenues with record companies, music distributors, music publishers and collecting societies, which in turn pay a cut over to artists and songwriters.

How big a cut each artist gets depends very much on their deals with any labels or distributors they work with. With a distribution deal, they could be getting 100% of the money that flows to their distributor, with a pre-digital record contract they could be getting a single figure percent.

Some in the industry have long argued that the payments received by many artists from streaming are too low. One proposal to address that problem is the introduction of an equitable remuneration system like that which already applies to radio income in most countries.

Under such a system, at least some streaming revenue would flow directly to performers via the collective licensing system, with performers - including session musicians - paid at industry standard rates oblivious of their label or distribution deals.

Most proposed ER systems would see either labels and distributors, or the streaming services, or both, get a smaller percentage of streaming revenues in order to allow a slice to flow to performers as ER. However, the Living Wage For Musicians Act basically passes the cost onto the consumer instead, presumably based on the argument that streaming subscription prices were always set too low.

The proposals will almost certainly be strongly opposed by the streaming services, and some of the music industry too. The services will likely argue that the pretty hefty price increase caused by the levy would result in a significant number of subscribers cancelling, meaning that the boost provided by the levy would be countered by there being fewer subscribers overall.

That said, the streaming services have already begun increasing prices and that hasn't resulted in a big flurry of cancellations. A 50% price hike may well be different, but if a more modest levy was introduced, that might not have too negative an impact. And whereas the recent price increases benefit the services, superstars and majors the most, with the levy system all the additional money would flow to performers.

The Living Wage For Musicians Act has been developed in partnership with the United Musicians And Allied Workers, which has been campaigning for higher streaming payments for performers for sometime, including via the Justice At Spotify campaign.

Welcoming the new proposals in Congress, UMAW organiser Damon Krukowski says, “There is a lot of talk in the industry about how to ‘fix’ streaming – but the streaming platforms and major labels have already had their say for more than a decade, and they have failed musicians”.

“The Living Wage For Musicians Act presents a new, artist-centred solution to make streaming work for the many and not just the few", he adds. "We need to return value to recordings by injecting more money into the system, and we need to pay artists and musicians directly for streaming their work".