Construction Declines Signal Need for Policy Changes

As might have been expected considering the sixth consecutive drop in the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) Housing Market Index released yesterday, residential builders pulled back in a big way last month. Both residential permitting and housing starts plummeted in June , although both so far are ahead of last year at the same date. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development report that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of residential permitting dropped 7.0 percent in May to 1.695 million units compared to 1.823 million in April. The April rate is a revision from the 1.819 million units reported last month. The May 2022 number represents a 0.2 percent increase from the 1.691 permitting rate reported for May 2021. Single-family permitting was down 5.5 percent for the month and 7.9 percent lower on an annual basis at 1.048 million units. The annualized 592,000 permitting rate for multifamily units was down 10.0 percent and 19.8 percent from the two earlier periods. On an unadjusted basis there were 148,900 construction permits issued in May compared to 156,600 the prior month. There were 95,000 single-family homes authorized, down from 98,200 in April. During the first five months of the year 739,300 permits were issued, a 2.7 percent increase from the same period in 2021. Single family permits are down 2.5 percent while multifamily permits have risen 14.8 percent Housing starts fared worse. The annual rate dropped 14.4 percent to 1.549 million from 1.810 million in April. The latter, however, was a substantial upward revision from the original April estimate of 1.724 million. Starts were 3.5 percent lower than in May 2021.

June 16, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Construction Declines Signal Need for Policy Changes As might have been expected considering the sixth consecutive drop in the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) Housing Market Index released yesterday, residential builders pulled back in a big way last month. Both residential permitting ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Decent Day For Mortgage Rates, Relatively Speaking, Despite Volatility Mortgage rates are still in the process of bouncing back from an ultra-sharp spike to the highest levels since 2008 seen on Tuesday. Clarity from the Federal Reserve helped yesterday, but the bond market faced new hurdles overnight. Bonds dict... (read more) Rob Chrisman Company Webinars, Non-Agency, Compliance, DPA Products; USDA and Ginnie News; Rates Smack Housing Starts and Permits If you can't think of a word or phrase, say, "I forgot the English word for it." That way people will think you're bilingual instead of an idiot. It is not hard to remember the phrase, “Rates are going higher.” While independent mortgage banks contin... (read more) Mortgage Rates Decent Day For Mortgage Rates, Relatively Speaking, Despite Volatility 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.05% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.05% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.38% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.58% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.07% +0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.33% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.68% -0.32 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.38% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.10% -0.15 0.90 15 Yr. Fixed 4.31% -0.12 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.20% +0.12 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/26 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.33% -0.13 0.51 15 Yr. Fixed 4.72% 0.00 0.63 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.93% -0.09 0.41 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/1 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 4.5 99.53 +0.06 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.5 99.53 +0.06 UMBS 5.0 101.20 -0.02 GNMA 4.5 101.23 +0.19 GNMA 5.0 102.41 -0.11 Pricing as of: 6/16 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.1820 -0.1095 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.091 -0.118 5 YR Treasury 3.274 -0.100 7 YR Treasury 3.269 -0.108 10 YR Treasury 3.182 -0.110 30 YR Treasury 3.229 -0.103 Pricing as of: 6/16 5:21PM EST Latest Video Existing home sales are really slowing, says KeyBanc's Kenneth Zener Higher interest rates hit housing We're seeing synchronized global tightening, says Bleakley's Peter Boockvar Weekly jobless claims fall to 229,000, housing starts decline 14.4% Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Housing Starts Decreased to 1.549 million Annual Rate in May CNBC Powell says the Fed could hike rates by 0.75 percentage point again in July Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 229,000 Reuters Swiss National Bank raises rates in shock move, ready for more Calculated Risk Blog NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 67 in June; "Traffic of prospective buyers" Falls below Breakeven CNBC Fed hikes its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a point, the biggest increase since 1994 yahoo finance SNB Surprises With First Interest-Rate Hike in 15 Years Realtor.com U.S. Home Equity Hits Highest Level on Record$27.8 Trillion forexlive BOE raises bank rate by 25 bps from 1.00% to 1.25%, as expected CNBC Fed members predict more hikes with the benchmark rate above 3% by year-end Calculated Risk Blog FOMC Projections and Press Conference Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 4.1% Compared to Same Week in 2019 Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Decreased 0.3% in May

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