Could South American Weather Erase The High Yields Noted in WASDE?

Let this sink in: One state in Brazil — Mato Grosso — produces the equivalent of Illinois and Iowa’s soybean production combined. Here's a look at South America's growing regions, crop calendar and production capacity.

The shift to an El Niño weather pattern is creating dynamic market conditions. In particular, the U.S. soybean market will be extremely sensitive to threats to the Brazilian crop.

In December 2022, Jon Scheve sold 25% of his expected 2023 soybean production at $14.04 with a November 2023 futures contract sale. He also bought $13.80 November puts for 78 cents on his remaining 75% of production. Combined, these trades provided a guaranteed $13.25 futures price floor and unlimited upside potential.