| There is a real sense of frustration in Ukraine about a perceived double standard in US support for Israel. “The view among some is that if Britain, America, Jordan and all these other countries are willing to shoot down drones to help out Israel, why can’t they do something similar for us when we’re facing this all the time?” Dan Sabbagh says. According to Ukraine’s permanent representative to the UN, Russia has launched 1,000 missiles, 2,800 drones, and 7,000 guided aerial bombs since January. Though Ukraine has called on its allies to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine since the start of the war, Nato has refused as it could lead to a direct war with nuclear-armed Russia. Zelenskiy says that when it comes to Ukraine, “rhetoric does not protect the sky”. Frontline under pressure For some time, the situation in Ukraine was considered to be a stalemate, but since January, Kyiv’s position has been deteriorating. Russia has been “simultaneously increasing pressure on the frontlines and conducting an increasingly ruthless campaign against civilians principally by attacking power stations and knocking out electricity supplies”, Dan says. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city, has been particularly badly affected, with all three major power plants left severely damaged. “Russia is trying to conduct a slow-motion siege of Kharviv to make it less and less attractive for people to live here,” he says. Russia has also been battering away at the 600-mile frontline. In February, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka, marking Moscow’s biggest victory since capturing Bakhmut in May 2023. Zelenskiy said this defeat was a result of dwindling supplies and the US failure to approve its aid package. After the withdrawal, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, a Ukrainian army commander, said the troops had to retreat as Russia was “advancing on the corpses of their own soldiers” and had “a 10-to-one shell advantage”. Russia did lose a significant number of troops – about 17,000 may have been killed according to Ukraine, an indication of the volume of casualties the Kremlin is willing to tolerate. “Ukraine’s commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, acknowledged that Russia has stepped up its offensive since its election,” Dan says. “He said that Ukraine was coming under more and more frontline pressure, which is a very candid admission and not the sort of thing generals normally say.” Arms shortage Ukraine has been direct about the potential consequences of its arms shortage: it will lose the war if the situation does not change. For months, the US Congress has refused to pass $60bn in aid, leaving Ukraine to fight with severe ammunition shortages. “An isolationist mindset has gripped a meaningful proportion of the Republican party, which has prevented any progress in getting aid to Ukraine,” Dan says. This week there seems to have been progress, but there is still no guarantee the bill will pass. By contrast, most European countries have been eager to do more for Ukraine but have much smaller militaries than the US. The Ukrainian government has reported shortages of all types of weapons: long-range missile systems, mortar shells, fighter jets, bombers and even bullets. Russia is estimated to be firing at least five times as much artillery as Ukraine. The Czech prime minister, Petr Fiala, confirmed he has signed contracts for the first 180,000 of 300,000 ammunition rounds for Ukraine, and Germany said it will send a Patriot missile defence system. It will be the third Patriot that Germany has supplied, with each newly produced system costing about $1.1bn. Though this is progress, Zelenskiy has said they need 25 of the US-made Patriot systems. Not enough people At the start of the war, Ukraine’s military was inundated with volunteers ready to fight for their country. Two years on, the picture is very different with Ukraine facing a soldier shortage. In December, Zelenskiy said Ukraine needs 450,000 to 500,000 extra soldiers to resist Russia this year. Though he has since walked this figure back, Ukraine’s parliament still passed a new mobilisation law that is trying to compel more people to fight. “The problem is everyone who wanted to join has probably already joined,” Dan says. The bill initially had a number of draft-dodging penalties that have since been dropped because of significant public backlash. “Under the previous rules, any man under the age of 27 would not be sent to the frontline,” Dan explains. “This new legislation will drop that down to 25 because they need to expand the pool of people available.” Ukraine’s struggles do not, however, necessarily mean that Russia is having huge victories. The frontline has not moved significantly and Moscow is battling its own internal political quagmire. “Life in Kharkiv is going on. The streets are busy and mostly people are just going about their day,” Dan says. “They are resilient but the war is not going well for Ukraine.” | 