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What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Prepare for headline risk and volatility this week.

That's the message from the Deribit-listed bitcoin options market, where the implied volatility term structure is elevated at the front end, per data source Amberdata. It's a sign of traders anticipating a relatively greater degree of uncertainty or potential volatility in the short term, driven by potential BTC-related announcements at the Bitcoin Conference 2025, which will be held from May 27 to 29.

"The sustained elevation in near-term vols suggests that traders are positioning around headline risk ahead of the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, scheduled for 27 to 29 May. Focus is already building around the event’s speaker line-up, which includes JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump," Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital said in a market note.

QCP used last year's Nashville Bitcoin Conference in July as an analogue. Back then, one-day volatility spiked to 90%, coinciding with President Donald Trump's keynote speech at the conference, followed by a swift reversal and a 30% drop in two days, QCP explained.

The heavy macro data docket, boasting releases of the Fed Minutes, the U.S. Core PCE, Japan's CPI and the RBNZ rate decision, could also add to volatility in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Amid all this, data tracked by Glassnode shows large BTC holders have already pivoted to distributing coins, hinting at potential downside volatility.

In other news, The Blockchain Group, a French-based company focused on bitcoin treasury strategies, announced the completion of convertible bond issuance totalling €63.3 million ($72 million) to fund additional  BTC purchases.

An FT report said India's crypto industry is lobbying to reduce the 30% capital gains tax and 1% transaction tax imposed in 2022, which have drained volumes from local exchanges.

Google's quantum team said breaking RSA encryption in Bitcoin wallets and banking may require 20 times fewer qubits (effort) than previously thought.

In traditional markets, the Japanese 10- and 30-year government bond yields continued to descend from recent highs, calming the market's nerves. Stay alert!

Galaxy Now Trading on Nasdaq — Ticker: GLXY

Bringing digital assets and AI infrastructure to the forefront of U.S. markets

Galaxy (Nasdaq: GLXY) is trading on Nasdaq, marking a milestone for a company operating at the forefront of digital assets and artificial intelligence.

Founded in 2018 by billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, Galaxy has grown into a global platform offering institutional trading, asset management, lending, tokenization, and crypto ETFs. Its derivatives desk recorded over $20 billion in volume last year, and it ranks among the largest crypto lenders worldwide.

Galaxy is also expanding into AI infrastructure. Its Helios data center in West Texas is being repurposed from supporting BTC mining to high-performance compute, with a 15-year partnership to host CoreWeave’s AI workloads that will create a diversified source of predictable revenue that is uncorrelated to the prices of digital assets.

Find us on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY and learn more about how Galaxy is building the future of finance and AI at www.galaxy.com.

Important Disclosures

This announcement shall not constitute a solicitation of a proxy, consent or authorization with respect to any securities. In addition, this announcement does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction. No securities commission or securities regulatory authority in the United States or any other jurisdiction has in any way passed upon the merits of the Reorganization or the accuracy or adequacy of this communication.

Certain statements in these materials constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PLSRA”), Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as “may,” “might,” “will,” “should,” “expects,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “potential” or “continue,” the negative of these terms and other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions about us, may include projections of Galaxy Digital Inc.’s (the “Company”) future financial performance or results, our anticipated growth strategies, anticipated trends in our business or future events and circumstances. These statements are only predictions based on the Company's current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections about future events and trends that may affect the business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects. And as a result, these statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company and which may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. For a further discussion of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please see the section titled “Risk Factors” in Part II, Item 1A of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2025. Forward-looking statements are provided as a general guide only, and should not be relied on as an indication or guarantee of future performance. They can be affected by inaccurate assumptions we might make or by known or unknown risks or uncertainties. Given these uncertainties, recipients are cautioned to not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Subject to any continuing obligations under applicable law the Company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements in these materials to reflect any change in expectations in relation to such forward-looking statements or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

Crypto:

• May 30: The second round of FTX repayments starts.
• May 31 (TBC): Mezo mainnet launch.

• June 6, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on "DeFi and the American Spirit"

Macro

• May 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases April manufactured durable goods orders data.
  • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. -7.9% vs. Prev. 7.5%.
  • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. 8.9%.
  • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. -0.1% vs. Prev. -0.4%.
• May 27, 10 a.m.: The Conference Board (CB) releases May U.S. consumer confidence data.
  • CB Consumer Confidence Est. 87.2 vs. Prev. 86
• May 28, 2 p.m.: The Fed releases minutes of the FOMC meeting held May 6-7.
• May 29, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases April unemployment rate data.
  • Unemployment Rate Est. 6.9% vs. Prev. 7%
• May 29, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases Q1 GDP data.
  • GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estimate Est. -0.3% vs. Prev. 2.4%
  • GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Estimate Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 2.3%
  • GDP Sales QoQ 2nd Estimate Est. -2.5% vs. Prev. 3.3%
• May 29, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech at the 5th Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop (virtual). Livestream link.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.88

Governance Votes & Calls

Unlocks

Token Launches

Spot BTC ETFs

Spot ETH ETFs

• Annualized funding rates for the top 25 tokens by market value mostly remain below 10%.

•  

  It's a sign that animal spirits remain at bay despite BTC trading at record highs.

🇫🇷 The Blockchain Group Secures $71.9M to Fuel Bitcoin Acquisition (CoinDesk): The Paris-listed firm raised 63.3 million euros ($71.9 million) via BTC-denominated convertible bonds, purchased by Moonlight Capital, Fulgur Ventures, and UTXO Management, to expand its bitcoin treasury strategy.

🐻 Bitcoin Faces Risk of Pullback to $100K as Momentum Indicator Diverges Bearishly: Technical Analysis (CoinDesk): Momentum is fading as price gains outpace technical strength, raising the risk of a drop toward $100,000 before any broader uptrend resumes.

🇹🇭 SEC Clarifies Rules for Upcoming G-Token (Bangkok Post): Thailand’s Finance Ministry will issue G-Token, the world’s first government-backed digital debt instrument, through a selected initial coin offering platform to fund its deficit under the public debt ceiling.

🇺🇸 The U.S. Reinforces Europe’s Northern Front, Fearing War With Russia (The Wall Street Journal): The U.S. is strengthening NATO’s northern defenses with joint exercises, expanded troop presence, and tighter coordination, even as Trump’s criticism of the alliance raises doubts about future American support.

🇬🇧 UK Turns to Shorter-Term Borrowing as Fiscal Pressure Mounts (Financial Times): RBC Capital forecasts that U.K. government bonds issued between July and September will average just nine years in maturity, well below the 14-year stock average and approaching a record low.

🇯🇵 Japan’s MOF Is Said to Sound Out Market on Bond Sale Amounts (Bloomberg): Japan’s finance ministry issued a rare late-day survey after weak bond demand, prompting a sharp drop in long yields as markets anticipated reduced issuance of 20- to 40-year debt.

CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.

L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.

Edited by Sheldon Reback

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