| Good morning Voornaam, If you are young, market crashes are exciting times. Provided you've managed your risk properly (i.e. you aren't sitting with all your money in leveraged positions with no protection), a crash is a wonderful excuse to wait for the dust to settle before buying again. Stocks move from trading above their average multiples to trading below them, which means you can take advantage of not just earnings growth going forwards, but also multiple expansion - the secret weapon of wealth creation.
Welcome to investing, where the geeks like me love a red market. The caveat right up front about my age makes a difference. I'm 36, so it will be many moons until I retire. I obviously feel for those who are closer to retirement, especially where proper financial planning and risk management hasn't happened. With decent planning, you should have enough in lower risk assets to allow a crash to be ridden out. If you're close to retirement, it's time to have a serious talk with your financial advisor.
One thing you could certainly discuss with your advisor and with the Investec team directly is the opportunity around the latest structured products, especially because one of them references the Nikkei. With the Nikkei down 13% for the day at time of writing, the entry point for the instrument is suddenly a whole lot more attractive. Applications close this Thursday and you need to be careful about the pricing date, so listen to the podcast on the product and reach out to the team directly. I expect the team to update the market this week and I'll naturally share the latest information with you as soon as I receive it.
For traders, market volatility is when things get properly exciting. After all, you need prices to move before you can make money. To learn more about trading, my podcast series with IG Markets South Africa is proving to be a helpful resource. The latest episode is available here>>>
In local company news, the highlight on Friday was Curro and an earnings recovery back to 2020 levels. In Ghost Bites, I show the earnings progression at Curro from 2019 to 2024 to give more context to the trading statement. There's also trouble for Mantengu Mining's potential acquisition of Birca Copper. Get the details in Ghost Mail here>>>
And for those looking for a break from the markets, Dominique Olivier wrote an excellent piece on first mover disadvantage and what this actually means, with ChatGPT as a perfect recent example. Read it here>>>
Buckle up for a bumpy ride in the markets today! |
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| FEATURED: Investec Structured Products new product applications close on 8 August |
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| | | Investec Structured Products: Applications for the Nikkei 225 Autocall and Euro Stoxx 50 Autocall close on 8 August. Don't miss the opportunity to learn about these offshore investment opportunities. |
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| FEATURED: The Trader's Handbook Ep 3 (NEW) |
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| IG Markets Episode 3: For a review of the trades in my demo account and a discussion on how to choose the right brokerage, I was joined as usual by Shaun Murison of IG Markets South Africa. Learn about trading at this link>>> |
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| FEATURED: Unlock the Stock - SA REIT sector with Keillen Ndlovu |
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| | | Unlock the Stock: In a session with a different format to the norm, Keillen Ndlovu joined us to present his institutional-quality research on the REIT sector, followed by a vibrant Q&A. Brought to you by the SA REIT Association, you can watch the recording here>>> |
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| FEATURED: ChatGPT and first mover disadvantage |
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| Dominique Olivier: Going first isn't always the best move in business. The benefit of hindsight is wonderful, even if we are talking about someone else's hindsight. ChatGPT is just the latest example of what looks increasingly like first mover disadvantage. Learn more here>>> |
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| Ghost Bites: Get the latest on Curro and Mantengu Mining, along with various Little Bites in Ghost Bites here>>> |
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| | | Ghost Wrap: Get the latest on Balwin, British American Tobacco, Mr Price and Vodacom, all in just a few minutes in the Ghost Wrap podcast. |
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| Nico Katzke of Satrix: The GNU has driven significant optimism around the South African market. To help us understand where this is playing out and how the carry trade protects the rand, Nico Katzke joined me on Ghost Stories. Find it here>>> |
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| Magic Markets: Is the automotive sector a good investment? Using examples like Ford, GM, Toyota and BMW, we set out to answer that question in the latest episode of Magic Markets. Find it here>>> |
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| Investec No Ordinary Wednesday podcast: The market may be unpredictable, but your investment strategy doesn’t have to be. Investec Investment Management experts share their insights on what approaches are winning, common mistakes investors make, and why staying the course is important. Enjoy it here>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| There's been much talk in the market about Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett's famous investment vehicle) selling down nearly half its stake in Apple. I'm not surprised, to be honest. When we last covered Apple in Magic Markets Premium and in subsequent writing on the company, I had raised concerns about the extent to which multiple expansion drove returns in the past decade. Sure, the iPhone was an absolute game-changer, but what was the next iPhone going to be? How was Apple going to offer the same returns over the next decade?
It seems like the Oracle of Omaha has similar concerns. This is why I far prefer Microsoft to Apple in my portfolio and I'm weighted accordingly. Remember, my most detailed research alongside Mohammed Nalla is available to our subscribers in Magic Markets Premium. At just R99/month, it's the best investment you can make. |
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| IG Morning Call: daily macroeconomic update |
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| US tech has led global markets lower as onerous valuations start to moderate amidst weaker than expected economic data. US employment data on Friday missed consensus estimates and the market is now questioning the health of the economy, rather than just cheering the prospect of imminent rate cuts.
Fed fund futures now suggest a 92% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in the US as soon as September. The dollar has in turn weakened against the majors, most notably the Japanese Yen, as the carry trade opportunity starts to dissipate.
The rand is trading weaker in risk-off trade and we are expecting a softer start for the JSE All-Share Index this morning as well.
Oil prices are trading softer this morning as demand side worries emanate from weak economic data and OPEC+ look to unwind production curbs as soon as October.
Gold after moving close to all-time high territory on Friday is trading relatively muted this morning, despite the softer dollar.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.44/$ | US 10yr 3.71% | Gold $2,434/oz | Platinum $935/oz | Brent Crude $75.80
The macroeconomic update is based on IG's morning call update |
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