Assad's Last Stand

Assad's Last Stand

By Gregg Roman ● Dec 08, 2024

Smart Brevity^® count: 6 mins...1621 words

Welcome to a special edition of The Dispatch, focused on the dramatic developments in Syria following the fall of Damascus to opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This edition provides comprehensive coverage and expert analysis of this pivotal moment in Syria's 13-year civil war, examining its far-reaching implications for regional stability and international relations.

Our lead story covers the unprecedented capture of Damascus by rebel forces, with detailed reporting on the ensuing chaos, President Assad's uncertain whereabouts, and the establishment of a National Transitional Council. MEF Fellow Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi offers valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of post-Assad Syria, particularly examining the realignment of local communities and the weakening of the Iran-Russia axis of influence.

This edition also features Michael Rubin's analysis of HTS's evolution and its attempts to rebrand itself, alongside Daniel Pipes's strategic assessment of U.S. involvement in Syria. Jonathan Spyer contributes a detailed examination of the ethno-sectarian dynamics at play, while Hussein Aboubakr Mansour explores the implications for Gulf state diplomacy and Iranian influence in the region.

We conclude with a critical piece on the humanitarian situation in northeastern Syria, where Michael Rubin draws sobering parallels between the Kurdish crisis and recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh. Additionally, we revisit MEF's previous predictions about Syria's trajectory, evaluating our scholars' past analyses against current developments.

Damascus Falls: A New Chapter in Syria's Turmoil

Houses and streets in Syria War knows no stone or man

Syrian rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have taken control of Damascus, marking a pivotal shift in the 13-year civil war.

Why it matters: The fall of Damascus reshapes power dynamics in the region, posing significant challenges for Assad's allies, Russia and Iran, and impacting U.S. strategic interests.

Chaos in Damascus: Rebel advances have led to widespread chaos, with President Assad's whereabouts unknown and civilians desperately fleeing the capital. Reports of potential chemical weapon use by regime loyalists have U.S. intelligence on high alert.
Declaring Victory: The official announcement of the National Transitional Council: "On this historic day, after years of injustice, we announce today to the Syrian people and the whole world that Bashar al-Assad's regime has fallen."

The big picture: HTS's rise raises alarms due to its history as an Al Qaeda affiliate and its designation as a terrorist organization, demanding cautious international engagement.

International Implications: The loss of Damascus is a major blow to Assad's allies, particularly Russia and Iran, who have supported his regime for over a decade. The U.S., maintaining 900 troops in northern Syria, is closely monitoring the situation to assess its impact on regional stability.
Israel actively deployed forces into the Golan Heights buffer zone to protect its borders but emphasized that it will not interfere in Syria's internal conflict.

What's next: The rebel coalition's plans for governance are uncertain, with HTS's dominance posing challenges for future stability.

Transition Challenges: Observers watch closely as HTS attempts to establish order amidst the power vacuum. The international community must balance the need for stability with the threat posed by HTS's extremist elements. The geopolitical landscape may shift significantly as global powers react and reassess their strategies in the Middle East.

Syrian Opposition's Shift: Genuine or Tactical?

By Michael Rubin

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian opposition group backed by Turkey, has taken control of Aleppo’s citadel and now controls Damascus.

Why it matters: Western nations are cautious about HTS's intentions due to its past as a designated terrorist group.

HTS's leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, broke with Al Qaeda in 2016 but remains on the U.S. Treasury's watchlist.

The big picture: HTS is rebranding, emphasizing governance over jihadist ambitions.

Observers like Charles Lister note Jawlani’s calls for tolerance and protection of minority communities.

What’s next: The West must decide if HTS's moderation is genuine or a tactical move.

Jawlani's ties with Turkey raise concerns about the sincerity of his shift from extremism.

Al-Tamimi's Insights: Post-Assad Syria's Dynamics

Interview with MEF Milstein Fellow Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

MEF Fellow Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi offers insights into Syria's shifting landscape following the fall of the Assad regime, crucial for our readers.

Why it matters: The collapse of Assad's regime marks a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East, affecting regional stability and power balances.

Israel's strategic operations, previously aimed at containment, now focus on navigating the post-Assad power vacuum.

The big picture: Al-Tamimi highlights diverse local responses, with Shi'a communities like Nubl and al-Zahara' grappling with new uncertainties in the absence of Assad's regime.

What’s next: The dissolution of the "axis of resistance" poses challenges for Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, as they reassess their roles in Syria's new era.

Shifting allegiances on social media suggest potential political realignments as communities adapt to Syria's changing landscape.

MEF's Syria Predictions Revisited

Several key Middle East Forum scholars accurately forecasted aspects of Syria's trajectory in 2011.

The big picture: Scholars like Gary Gambill, Daniel Pipes, and Jonathan Spyer highlighted the sectarian dimensions and Iran's pivotal role in shaping the Syrian conflict and regional dynamics.

Alawite loyalty to Assad proved resilient, affecting regional stability.
Iran's strategic alliance with Syria was pivotal in shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Missed opportunities: Despite their foresight, some developments, like the rise of ISIS and Russia's intervention, were unforeseen.

The regime's unexpected longevity affected regional power balances.
The emergence of Kurdish autonomy was not fully addressed, altering conflict dynamics.

Assad's Fall: Rethinking Rapprochement

A man in a suit waves a white flag of surrender.

By Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin highlights the lessons from the fall of Assad's regime, urging caution in diplomatic engagements with pariah states.

Why it matters: The collapse of Assad's government underscores the risks of legitimizing oppressive regimes through diplomacy.

Recent events reveal that compromise with adversaries can embolden them, delaying inevitable collapse and perpetuating suffering.

The big picture: Assad's participation in Arab League summits marked a shift towards normalization, yet his regime's abrupt fall highlights underlying instability.

Similar diplomatic efforts with regimes like Iran must consider whether they rest on "termite-ridden wood rot," lacking genuine public support.

What's next: Policymakers should assess the potential for regime collapse against the risks of legitimizing oppressive authorities through engagement.

Rubin asserts that sometimes the best diplomacy is no diplomacy, especially with regimes that sponsor terrorism and harm their own citizens.

Strategic Chaos in Syria: A Calculated Gamble

By Daniel Pipes

President-elect Donald Trump advocates for U.S. non-involvement in Syria, but Daniel Pipes suggests a counterintuitive approach.

Why it matters: Supporting Assad’s backers could strategically benefit U.S. interests by keeping adversaries occupied.

It pits Turkey, Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia against each other rather than targeting the U.S. and allies.

The big picture: A prolonged conflict deters a Türkiye-backed Islamist victory, preventing destabilization in the region.

Allowing former Assad regime members to remain weak prevents Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from gaining power and strengthens Erdoğan's influence.

What’s next: U.S. policy could include pressuring Türkiye to cut ties with HTS and allowing Russian forces to shift focus to Syria.

This strategy could draw resources away from Ukraine and limit Iran's capacity to threaten Israel.

Syria: A Microcosm of Middle Eastern Power Dynamics

By Jonathan Spyer

The recent offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria highlights the region's ethno-sectarian clashes and the influence of powerful states.

Why it matters: The offensive underscores the fragile balance of power in the Middle East, with implications for regional stability.

Syria's civil war remains unresolved, and HTS's advance reshapes control over key areas, sacking Damascus last night.

The big picture: The now deposed Assad regime, reliant on Iranian and Russian support, faced challenges as allies are distracted by conflicts elsewhere.

HTS's strategic move exploits this vulnerability, reflecting broader Middle Eastern dynamics.

What's next: Understanding these power plays is crucial for Western governments and stakeholders to navigate the region's complexities.

Observers must watch how ethno-sectarian forces and state actors wield power across the Middle East.

Syria's Conflict: A Complex Web of Power

By Hussein Aboubakr Mansour

Recent escalations by jihadist groups in Syria complicate diplomatic efforts by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. to distance Syria from Iran.

Why it matters: The Syrian conflict, a battleground for regional powers, challenges strategic shifts aimed at reducing Iranian influence.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia see opportunities in Syria's precarious position but face setbacks due to jihadist advances.

The big picture: The conflict underscores Syria's role as a microcosm of Middle Eastern power dynamics, with implications for global stability.

Iran's support for Syria and regional alliances complicate efforts to redraw power maps.

What's next: Nations must balance exerting influence without pushing Syria further into Iran’s orbit.

The chaos serves as a reminder that strategies must adapt to the volatile nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Northeastern Syria: Echoes of Nagorno-Karabakh

By Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin highlights the dire situation in northeastern Syria, drawing parallels to the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.

Why it matters: The assault on the Kurdish region by Turkish-backed forces is a slow-motion genocide, reminiscent of past ethnic cleansings.

The Biden administration's inaction mirrors the international community's failure in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The big picture: The Syrian Kurds, known for their secular and progressive governance, face existential threats as Turkey intensifies its military campaign.

This conflict exposes the fragility of regional alliances and the limitations of international diplomacy.

What’s next: The world must confront the potential for a humanitarian catastrophe and address the geopolitical consequences of ignoring such aggression.

Observers urge immediate attention to prevent further atrocities and uphold the "Never Again" promise.

As we conclude this special edition examining the fall of Damascus, we find ourselves at a historic inflection point in Syria's trajectory and broader Middle Eastern geopolitics. The diversity of perspectives presented by our scholars - from Michael Rubin's analysis of HTS's temerity in seizing power to Daniel Pipes' strategic considerations for U.S. policy - illuminates both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. The simultaneous collapse of Assad's once-mighty regime into a mendicant state, the rise of HTS as a dominant force, and the weakening of the Iran-Russia axis demand careful consideration from policymakers and regional stakeholders alike.

Gregg Roman
Director
Middle East Forum

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