Decent Recovery But MBS Underperform

Decent Recovery But MBS Underperform On Thursday, 10yr yields came close to spiking 20bps, trough to peak, in the wake of hotter CPI data and a lousy 30yr bond auction. That's a brisk day of selling and one that didn't line up with this week's theme (adjusting to softer Fed comments and pricing in some safe-haven flows surrounding the Israel/Gaza War). Today's rally started early and stayed strong all night. A pop in consumer inflation expectations brought the rally to an end, but bonds held on to gains without any drama in the PM hours. MBS underperformed along with the short end of the yield curve. Econ Data / EventsImport Prices0.1 vs 0.5 f'cast, 0.6 prev Export Prices0.7 vs 0.5 f'cast 1.1 prev Consumer Sentiment63.0 vs 67.2, 68.1 prev 1yr inflation expectations3.8 vs 3.2 prev 5yr inflation expectations3.0 vs 2.8 prev Market Movement Recap10:11 AM Steady gains overnight, flattening out into domestic hours. 10yr down 7.6bps at 4.621. MBS up a quarter point 11:46 AM Slightly weaker into mid-day. Consumer inflation expectations aren't helping. MBS up only an eighth on the day. 10yr down 5.8bps at 4.639. 03:42 PM Very flat all day after earlier selling. 10yr down 7.2bps at 4.625, MBS up just over an eighth of a point.

October 13, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Decent Recovery But MBS Underperform Decent Recovery But MBS Underperform On Thursday, 10yr yields came close to spiking 20bps, trough to peak, in the wake of hotter CPI data and a lousy 30yr bond auction. That's a brisk day of selling and... (read more) Rob Chrisman Database Mining, Closing Cost, RON, AI, DPA Products; Vendor News Heading to Philly Today, as I head to Chicago (from the Native American word shikaakwa, for the wild onion) on my way to Philadelphia, I received this note. “Rob, why is PenFed exiting from correspondent?” Well, you should talk to your PenFed rep. But if anyone had to... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.66% -0.03% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.66% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.01% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.12% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.84% -0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.12% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.14% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/13 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.01% -0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.57% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.89% +0.11 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/12 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.67% +0.14 0.75 15 Yr. Fixed 6.97% +0.11 1.18 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.70% +0.19 0.57 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/11 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.09 +0.13 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 98.09 +0.13 GNMA 6.0 98.67 +0.08 Pricing as of: 10/13 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.6190 -0.0780 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.056 -0.015 5 YR Treasury 4.644 -0.050 7 YR Treasury 4.655 -0.069 10 YR Treasury 4.619 -0.078 30 YR Treasury 4.760 -0.095 Pricing as of: 10/13 5:31PM EST Latest Video Wealthy Americans are not affected by the housing crisis, says former FHA C... Higher interest rates have been good for banks, says UBS analyst Erika Naja... Consumer sentiment slips, inflation outlook spikes, survey shows September CPI showed Fed still has work to do, says Citi's Nathan Sheets Around the Web CNBC Student loan borrowers hit snags as payments resume: 'It's a challenging environment,' head of loan servicer group says CNBC Mortgage rates near 8%, an 'inventory crisis': Homebuyers face a 'tricky' market, expert says CNBC Getting to 2% inflation won't be easy. This is what will need to happen, and it might not be pretty CNBC Philadelphia Fed President Harker advocates holding interest rates 'where they are' Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2.4% YoY; New Listings Down 3.2% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking: High 3s Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September Eye on Housing Building Materials Price Inflation Cools in September CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors weigh interest rate outlook Marketwatch Treasury yields are likely to fall. That doesn't mean stocks and corporate bonds are guaranteed to increase. Reuters Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased 0.2% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in September

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