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| Thursday, August 29, 2024 |
| On Tuesday night, Dan Schneier backed up all of his "superior athlete" talk and bested Adam Aizer in a game of charity tennis. Incredible stuff. I finished work, got some ice cream, and fell asleep. Adam and Dan are among the most relentless grinders that I know, though. They're out here putting in work on the tennis court even after a day of work. Adam probably recorded a podcast afterwards. |
| I needed the rest. I've been on the grind a bit, myself. Here's what I've been working on lately: |
Preseason rookie film thread
Rookie roundup (notes on roughly 40 rookies)
Evaluating all 32 offensive lines
Updating the offseason rush scheme research with preseason data from new play-callers
Examining the NFL's new play-callers
My favorite upside picks in each of the first rounds
Unheralded rookies to know (Who's this year's Puka?!?!?!?!) |
| I also have been planning out a new podcast that Dan and I are bringing to FFT for the 2024 regular season. |
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| We recorded our first episode on Tuesday, joined by three members of the FantasyLife crew. Matthew Berry led things off by telling us about Guillotine leagues (I'm going to try these leagues out for the first time this season! I'd be happy to update y'all in this space on how it goes if people want that. You might have to remind me to do so.), and then Dwain McFarland and Ian Hartitz took over for a discussion about what the 2024 Fantasy football season may have in store for us. It was a super fun conversation, and we covered a ton of ground. Ian and Dwain are two of my favorite Fantasy football analysts to talk ball with, and I respect the heck out of the work that they do. You can catch that episode on YouTube, and I believe that we'll have it live on the FFT Express podcast steam. If you want to help us grow the show, please subscribe to the FFT Express stream and leave a rating/review that mentions our show! |
| We're still figuring out all of the details for this second Beyond the Boxscore episode. |
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| I also just took part in a 12-team mock draft with the FFT crew where each of us drafted two teams at once. My two teams had the third and ninth picks. The league format was 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, and 1FLEX with full-PPR scoring and six points per touchdown. We drafted the first 14 rounds. |
| Check it out: |
Drafting out of the 1.03 spot -- Elite WR or RB early?
I drafted Jonathan Brooks as my RB1 to provide some insight into how that type of team can work. (it's not published yet, I'm not sure why. I'll include a link in Friday's newsletter) |
| I have been extremely high on Brooks for the entirety of draft season, and my guess is that a decent number of you might be too. That second article is for you, and I'll be updating on how my Brooks nest egg teams are weathering the storm as we get rolling here. |
| We are so close |
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| We have talked about just about every player possible, at this point in the NFL cycle. A buddy who I co-manage a Dynasty team with asked me what I thought about adding Julius Chestnut to our roster last night. I've been waiting for years for someone to ask me about Julius Chestnut! |
| People are coming around on Bryce Young! |
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| The public is becoming excited about the Panthers who are -- checks notes -- tied for 31st in Vegas-implied wins and points for 2024. We are at that special point in the NFL lifecycle. I think it's fun! |
| Wanna get excited about Bryce Young with me? |
| We are so close! Beyond the Boxscore, twice per week! Newsletters in your inbox, every day but Saturday! Guillotine leagues! DFS! Parlays! Pick your poison, addiction is back on the menu! |
| For my money, BTB has gotta be the fix of choice. It's free! Subscribing to a podcast is free! Beyond the Boxscore will hit the FFT Express podcast feed at 6 pm ET! |
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| Thank you! This is going to be a very fun season! Let's get to Dan's rankings! |
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| Dan's rankings are not bold enough! |
| I hope that I am not being irresponsible, here. If you find yourself having recently followed me blindly into a way-too-early selection of Jonathon Brooks, maybe consider not following anyone blindly. |
| Dan, I think that your rankings are more conservative than your actual opinions. Maybe that's a good thing and I am just a naive rookie who has never even played in a Guillotine league before. I just found a CBS league that we drafted months ago where I certainly left myself thin on contingency options. Maybe I take too many big swings. I do wanna draft with conviction, though! |
| I did not land Puka Nacua in some rookie drafts in 2023. That's crazy! I was into him as a prospect from the jump, and the landing spot with L.A. was a perfect fit, and still, I didn't get him in all of my drafts. How is that possible? I had leaguemates who knew how much I liked him and were willing to be more aggressive in drafting him than I was. |
| That's an outlier type of example, of course. But isn't that part of what we are attempting to do here, Dan? Finding outliers is our job, right? Why are we writing sleeper columns? Surely not just to fill the SEO void. Who cares? You do, enough to do the work. No one else cares if you were a little bit "too high" on Tank Bigsby. You might have nameless accounts pester you online, but that will dissipate. You're not going to get fired unless the economy collapses or the NFL gets shut down, and if that happens, did it matter if you made sure to not be too bold with a Bucky Irving ranking? You do absolutely fantastic work. You know it, you trust it. |
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| I'm done with my Dan rant. Well, actually, that's not true. I've promised to pick his rankings apart. I'm continuing my rant but now directing it at you. I'll get back to Dan and his rankings after this. You're also doing fantastic work, right? You're here reading this newsletter. What percentage of people drafting Fantasy football teams this August are doing that much? Trust your dang convictions. If it's wrong, we can adjust. |
| Players who I am much higher on than Dan: |
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| I thought Dan was a huge Jayden Daniels believer! |
| Jayden Daniels -- Dan has Daniels at QB12. I have Daniels at QB8. |
| Give me the upside! Daniels has the potential to be a true cheat code for Fantasy. If he's not, I probably grabbed Caleb Williams too. Streaming the position is always an option if you strike out on finding top-five upside. Does Kyler offer top-five upside? Do Jordan Love and Dak Prescott? Maybe. Things have to go pretty much perfectly in their offenses to hit that level of production. That's not the case with Daniels. |
| Yo, I'm not excited for the Kliff Kingsbury Horizontal Raid 2.0 either! I love the pace, though. I asked people if they saw Kyler Murray as bringing the same type of upside as Daniels and why, and many pointed towards his 2020 season. He finished as the QB3 in Fantasy in 2020. Isn't pointing out that fact actually supporting evidence for why Daniels should be drafted higher? |
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| Washington is 23rd in passing yardage and 28th in passing touchdowns in my projections. And still, Daniels is the QB7 in my projections. I'm drafting him as the QB8. |
| Geno Smith -- Dan has Geno at QB23. I have Geno at QB20. |
| This is a small difference, but I just wanted to point out that Dan seems low on Seattle's offense. It surprised me, because I thought that he was pretty high on this offense. He has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at WR42, I have him at WR35. I'm also a little bit higher on DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He has Noah Fant at TE22. I have Fant at TE18. Dan has Kenneth Walker at RB16, in his fifth tier of Fantasy running backs, which he denoted with a "solid drop" (presumably from Tier 4 to 5). Dan has David Montgomery ahead of Walker. I have Walker at RB13 and continue to feel like I'd rather draft Walker than Travis Etienne or Saquon Barkley, not that the hypothetical scenario ever presents itself in my draft strategy. I am slightly higher on Zach Charbonnet than Dan is. |
| Maybe I'm just way too high on Seattle's new coaching staff. |
| Jahymr Gibbs and De'Von Achane |
| Dan has Gibbs at RB9, behind Isiah Pacheco and Derrick Henry. I have Gibbs at RB4 and am fine with taking him at the back end of Round 1 if you want to swing for legendary RB upside. He's a David Montgomery injury away from being like 95% of CMC for Fantasy purposes. |
| Dan has Achane at RB10. I have Achane at RB5. I will place this bet every time. It's a rare opportunity, in my opinion. |
| Rachaad White -- Dan has White at RB17, behind Walker in Tier 5. I have White at RB14. I wonder if Dan feels too certain on this one. White is a young player who could get better. He could stand to benefit from the coaching change and offensive line upgrade in an unexpectedly big way. If the split between White and Irving is larger than we anticipate, White's Fantasy points could pile up quickly. He could basically be what Etienne was last year. |
| For what it's worth, I haven't clicked White's name anywhere this summer. I'm fully in on Team Bucky. But I would draft him if the situation presented itself. This is your Joe Mixon, it seems. I basically moved Mixon down to the point that I know I'll never land him. I am totally fine conceding that it could be a huge year if he happens be the one finishing off the majority of drives for Houston's offense. Maybe that's where Dan is on White? Why isn't Bucky higher in his rankings, then? |
| Javonte Williams -- Dan has Williams at RB32. I have Williams at RB23. |
| I see a sneaky path to upside for Williams, but I'm not so sure how realistic it is after watching more of Denver's preseason action. The Broncos made it a point to get Jaleel McLaughlin involved with the first-team offense, particularly on passing downs. Dan is a bit higher on McLaughlin than me. Maybe that's all there is to know when it comes to his ranking of Javonte. I'm totally fine drafting Williams, I want at least some exposure to the Denver backfield. Samaje Perine is gone, and someone is going to catch a lot of balls. If you think that it's McLaughlin ( here's his collegiate receiving data if you're into that sorta thing), then he's definitely a name to have in mind late in drafts. |
| The Chargers backfield |
| Dan has J.K. Dobbins at RB40. I have Dobbins at RB36. |
| Dan has Gus Edwards at RB35. I have Gus Bus at RB37. |
| Dan has Kimani Vidal at RB57. I have the rook at RB45. |
| Blake Corum, Ray Davis, Trey Benson, Tank Bigsby, Tyrone Tracy, and Bucky Irving |
| Dan has all of these backs outside of his top-40, with Irving being the lowest! I thought Dan was higher on Bucky than me! He's certainly lower on Rachaad White than I am. |
| Below, you'll see where I've most recently landed on this group. |
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| These backs are always shifting around. Zamir White is on a free fall! It feels unlikely that he's going to have the backfield to himself. Cutting into his snap rate at all drastically cuts into White's projection. He already offered a thin-margin type of projection with little upside. He needs a massive heaping of rush attempts. He's fine if you need someone to help out a Jonathon Brooks team, but I don't see him as much different than Chuba Hubbard and Ezekiel Elliott. Those two are much cheaper. I know that White is probably a much better player than Zeke, but the difference between the Dallas and Las Vegas offensive team-level projections are massive. If choosing a small-win player to help me patch together the early portion of the season, I don't want to pay a premium. |
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| Players who Dan is much higher on than me: |
| Kyler Murray -- Dan has Kyler at QB5. I have him at QB9. |
| You can read my thoughts on Murray in this Twitter thread. I recognize that Murray has upside to finish as a top-five QB. I don't hate the idea of ranking him this high. I'd rather swing on Anthony Richardson or Jayden Daniels. I think that Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud have a more-likely path to putting up a top-eight QB score and have a similar peak outcome. |
| That might seem off-base, since those two don't rush as much as Murray does. Their offenses are way better, though. Cincinnati is sixth in implied points according to Vegas lookahead lines. The Texans are ninth. Arizona is 21st. |
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| This is how I'm currently prioritizing the QB position in drafts. Is Murray more likely to hit the top to his range of outcomes than Daniels? Yes. I am very excited about Arizona's offensive outlook. Murray might be more likely to hit the top to his range of outcomes than Richardson. He's certainly not a bad pick. |
| The top to his range of outcomes is not as high as Richadson or Daniels. Those two offer significantly more rushing upside. Richardson's Colts have a notably higher implied point total than Arizona. If I'm drafting Richardson or Daniels, I'm looking to pair them with Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, or Geno Smith. Those four play in offenses that I want to invest in, and I'm totally fine investing an extra pick into one of those four. Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford are fine if they fall. I want one extra QB attached to a good offense to pair with Richardson and Daniels if those two struggle or miss time early on. I want to take a swing at potentially landing the QB1 , and the math (and my eyes) tell me that Richardson and Daniels are more likely of doing that in fast-paced offenses than Murray is in a slug-it-out James Conner-led Cardinals offense. I'm fine paying a bit for insurance in the later rounds if it allows me to take that swing. |
| Brian Robinson Jr. -- Dan has Robinson at RB27. I have him at RB34. |
| I've been moving Robinson up. I'm definitely taking Javonte and Jaylen Warren ahead of him. Way more receiving upside exists with those two, and I think Warren's offense is going to produce massive rushing volume too. I also think Warren is an insanely explosive player who has the potential to put up monster numbers if healthy and serving as an every-down back. If Najee Harris were to miss time, a Warren + Cordarrelle Patterson pairing would be so much fun and Warren would be a weekly top-20 option at the RB position. |
| I also prefer Aaron Jones. To me, his 2024 formula is similar to Robinson's -- the offense will probably suck, the pace of play will be awesome, and Jones is a more explosive player with a play-caller who I actually believe in. |
| Cooper Kupp -- Dan has Kupp at WR8. I have Kupp at WR22. |
| One of Dan's three bold predictions on our most recent Beyond the Boxscore episode was that Kupp was going to outscore Puka Nacua in 2024. Couldn't be me. This one will hurt if it turns out to be true. |
| Chris Olave -- Dan has Olave at WR9. I have Olave at WR15. |
| Wow! I feel somewhere between neutral and reasonably optimistic about Olave's 2024 expectations. Someone, if you know Dan's reasoning, please fill me in! |
| Marquise Brown -- Dan has Hollywood at WR37. I have Brown at WR49. |
| Dan has Brown in the same tier as Xavier Worthy, which is a clear divergence from the rest of our similarly bullish Chiefs expectations. Dan dropped a bold prediction that Mahomes would finish as the QB1. How has this become bold? One extremely weird season (which also ended in him hoisting the Lombardi), and we are down on Mahomes? Maybe I should be higher on Brown. |
| DeAndre Hopkins -- Dan has Hopkins at WR38. I have Nuk at WR45. |
| I was very high on Hopkins at the beginning of draft process, but I really do not like starting the season hurt at his age. I hope that Dan is right. I have lots of Dynasty teams that are counting on Hopkins to serve as a passable free WR3. |
| Players Dan and I are in lockstep on |
| We're fading James Cook and Etienne |
| Of the two fades, Etienne is the one that scares me. Jacksonville's offense could be better than in 2023, and Etienne was a Fantasy monster. So much of that came through touchdowns, though. Etienne doesn't look good at all in my projections. The rushing efficiency is so bad, and I have no faith in this coaching staff to fix things. |
| We're both back in on Christian Watson |
| One of my Beyond the Boxscore bold takes was that Watson leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Dan loves it, of course. |
| We're both high on Xavier Worthy |
| I do worry a bit about his preseason 'go' route rate. If Worthy is only a field-stretcher, then Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are probably going to have huge seasons. |
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| Worthy was good with the ball in his hands at Texas, and Andy Reid used him in pre-snap motion some this preseason. I am comfortable drafting him as if he might be more than just a deep threat, because the upside is massive if that scenario plays out. |
| If you want more from me and Dan, check out the podcast that we just recorded with Matthew Berry, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitz of FantasyLife.com. |
| Positional Tiered Rankings Update |
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| QB TIERS |
| Tier 1 -- I view these as the two best quarterbacks in the game, and each has a top-five Vegas implied team point total for 2024. |
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Patrick Mahomes |
| Tier 2 -- I view these two as a step below Allen and Mahomes as players and I'm not sold that we'll get elite production from their offenses. |
QB3 - Lamar Jackson
QB4 - Jalen Hurts |
| Tier 3 -- They aren't proven, but there's legitimate QB1 overall upside |
QB5 - Anthony Richardson
QB8 - Jayden Daniels (Our first instance of a player being placed in a tier "above" players who are ranked higher. What does it mean? Well, the tiers are really only a loose representation of order. I'm using them mostly for categorization. This player fits in the same archetype as the player(s) sharing the tier. If that archetype fits a team need, maybe it makes sense to take this player above players who are ranked higher. If the archetypes don't matter for your particular team build, you are probably better off taking the player who is ranked higher) |
| Tier 4 -- Elite floor+upside combo |
QB6 - C.J. Stroud
QB7 - Joe Burrow
QB9 - Kyler Murray
QB12 - Dak Prescott |
| Tier 5 -- Upside to outscore the Tier 4 quarterbacks, but we're still really early in their career. Inconsistency could be a 2024 theme |
QB10 - Jordan Love
QB11 - Caleb Williams |
| Tier 6 -- Should have a strong offensive environment and could push into the top-six range with an outlier TD total |
QB13 - Trevor Lawrence
QB14 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB15 - Jared Goff
QB16 - Kirk Cousins
QB17 - Brock Purdy (originally, he was at the top of this tier. I'm not drafting him until I know what's going on with Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk)
QB20 - Geno Smith
QB21 - Matthew Stafford
QB22 - Aaron Rodgers |
| Tier 7 -- Named Drake Maye and capable of moving up the Fantasy QB rankings faster than any player. |
| QB23 - Drake Maye |
| Tier 8 -- Truly no idea what we can expect from this group, but there is a path to upside |
QB18 - Justin Herbert (most recently, reports are that Herbert's early season mobility may be limited)
QB19 - Deshaun Watson
QB24 - Daniel Jones
QB25 - Sam Darnold
QB27 - Bo Nix
QB28 - Will Levis
QB29 - Bryce Young (I'm very excited to see if he can take a Year 2 leap, but Carolina's 31st-ranked implied point total is so hard to overlook)
QB32 - Justin Fields |
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| Tier 9 -- Might be serviceable starters, but there's very little upside |
QB26 - Baker Mayfield
QB30 - Derek Carr
QB31 - Russell Wilson
QB33 - Gardner Minshew |
| RB TIERS |
| Tier 1 -- CMC |
| RB1 - Christian McCaffrey |
| Tier 2 -- Could score like CMC, even without a teammate injury |
RB2 - Breece Hall
RB3 - Bijan Robinson
RB5 - De'Von Achane |
| Tier 3 -- Could score like CMC with a teammate injury |
| RB4 - Jahmyr Gibbs |
| Tier 4 -- Workhorse RB with huge TD upside but mid receiving projections |
RB6 - Jonathan Taylor
RB7 - Kyren Williams
RB8 - Derrick Henry
RB9 - Josh Jacobs
RB10 - Isiah Pacheco
RB11 - Saquon Barkley |
| Tier 5 -- Potential workhorse RB with decent TD and target upside |
RB12 - Travis Etienne
RB13 - Kenneth Walker
RB14 - Rachaad White
RB15 - James Conner |
| Tier 6 -- Low-ceiling options who you can probably trust as weekly RB2 starters |
RB16 - James Cook
RB18 - Najee Harris
RB21 - Joe Mixon
RB22 - Alvin Kamara (he'll almost certainly finish higher than this if you want to grab him as a "small win" value. I'd rather take a WR with upside in the range where he is typically drafted. I see more upside for the running backs ahead of him in this tier. Harris could move into 300+ touch role if Jaylen Warren ever were to miss time. Cook and Mixon bring more TD scoring upside than Kamara. Last season was probably a +90th percentile outcome for Kamara, in terms of scoring PPR points)
RB24 - Aaron Jones
RB26 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB30 - Devin Singletary |
| Tier 7 -- Low-ceiling options who you might be able to trust as weekly RB2 starters |
RB36 - Gus Edwards
RB37 - Zamir White
RB38 - Ezekiel Elliott
RB49 - Austin Ekeler
RB53 - Rico Dowdle |
| Tier 8 -- I'm not convinced that they'll have the role, but a role might exist that gives these RBs surprising upside |
RB23 - Javonte Williams
RB25 - D'Andre Swift
RB27 - Tyjae Spears
RB28 - Tony Pollard
RB35 - J.K. Dobbins |
| Tier 9 -- Probably fine starters if needed, and there's upside for much more if there's a teammate injury |
RB17 - David Montgomery (again, don't get hung up on the ordering of the tiers. See the note on Jayden Daniels if you missed it)
RB18 - Raheem Mostert
RB29 - Jaylen Warren
RB32 - Zack Moss
RB33 - Chase Brown
RB34 - Brian Robinson |
| Tier 10 -- Probably only early-season options, but capable of helping bridge the gap if needed |
RB44 - Chuba Hubbard
RB52 - Jerome Ford |
| Tier 11 -- Maybe capable of offering flex value, could be more with a backfield injury |
RB31 - Blake Corum
RB35 - Ray Davis
RB40 - Trey Benson (I'm not so sure that Benson belongs in this tier. My guess is that it's James Conner's backfield, at least out of the gate)
RB41 - Zach Charbonnet
RB42 - Bucky Irving
RB50 - Tyler Allgeier
RB54 - Tank Bigsby
RB55 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB57 - Khalil Herbert
RB59 - Ty Chandler
RB60 - Justice Hill |
| Tier 12 -- True handcuffs |
RB39 - Jaylen Wright
RB45 - Kimani Vidal
RB46 - Tyrone Tracy
RB47 - Jordan Mason
RB48 - MarShawn Lloyd
RB61 - Trey Sermon
RB63 - Antonio Gibson |
| Tier 13 -- Potential handcuffs |
RB51 - Sione Vaki (potential obstacle - Craig Reynolds)
RB56 - Carson Steele (potential obstacle - Samaje Perine)
RB62 - Braelon Allen (potential obstacle - Israel Abanikanda)
RB64 - Will Shipley (potential obstacle - Kenneth Gainwell)
RB65 - Cam Akers (potential obstacle - Dameon Pierce) |
| WR TIERS |
| Tier 1 -- Cheat codes |
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb
WR2 - Tyreek Hill |
| Tier 2 -- Also the best WRs in the NFL, not quite the perfect-storm circumstances for Fantasy |
WR3 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR4 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR5 - A.J. Brown
WR6 - Justin Jefferson |
| Tier 3 -- Purely hypothetical, but it could be really cool |
WR7 - Garrett Wilson
WR11 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR13 - Drake London |
| Tier 4 -- Studs in perfect roles who could compete with Tier 2 and Tier 3 WRs in terms of Fantasy production |
WR8 - Nico Collins
WR9 - Deebo Samuel
WR17 - DJ Moore
WR24 - Rashee Rice
WR27 - Tank Dell |
| Tier 5 -- Studs who have lingering question marks as Week 1 approaches |
WR10 - Puka Nacua (injury)
WR12 - Jaylen Waddle (injury)
WR21 - Brandon Aiyuk (contract) |
| Tier 6 -- They're really good, the target projection looks amazing, but limited TD upside will likely prevent a truly elite Fantasy output |
WR14 - Chris Olave
WR15 - Malik Nabers
WR16 - Davante Adams
WR22 - Diontae Johnson
WR26 - Michael Pittman
WR30 - Christian Kirk |
| Tier 7 -- Probably decent starting options, but may be inconsistent week-to-week |
WR19 - DK Metcalf
WR23 - Mike Evans
WR28 - Amari Cooper
WR32 - Zay Flowers |
| Tier 8 -- No idea which version of this player that we'll get, but the fun version would be a huge W at ADP |
WR19 - DeVonta Smith
WR20 - Cooper Kupp
WR25 - Tee Higgins
WR29 - Stefon Diggs
WR31 - Calvin Ridley
WR36 - Christian Watson
WR38 - George Pickens
WR45 - DeAndre Hopkins
WR48 - Curtis Samuel
WR49 - Marquise Brown
WR54 - Jameson Williams
WR62 - Adonai Mitchell |
| Tier 9 -- Small win late-round picks (even if they prove to be ADP values, I'm not sure we benefit in a big way from drafting them) |
WR33 - Chris Godwin (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR40 - Keenan Allen (maybe he's more than this if the Bears offense takes off!)
WR50 - Darnell Mooney
WR53 - Tyler Lockett
WR56 - Jordan Addison
WR57 - Brandin Cooks
WR59 - Khalil Shakir (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR60 - Romeo Doubs
WR61 - Jerry Jeudy (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR64 - Demario Douglas
WR66 - Demarcus Robinson
WR67 - Greg Dortch
WR68 - Ja'Lynn Polk
WR71 - Adam Thielen (injury-contingent upside for more, but the offense probably falls apart again if Diontae is out)
WR72 - Jakobi Meyers (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR74 - Rashod Bateman
WR75 - Michael Wilson
WR76 - Jalen Tolbert
WR77 - Andrei Iosivas
WR78 - Tyler Boyd
WR82 - Gabe Davis
WR83 - Malachi Corley
WR85 - K.J. Osborn
WR87 - Darius Slayton
WR89 - Jalen Nailor
WR90 - Josh Reynolds
WR93 - Jalin Hyatt
WR94 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR101 - Roman Wilson |
| Tier 10 - Medium win late-round picks |
WR35 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR41 - Terry McLaurin
WR42 - Jayden Reed (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR43 - Josh Palmer
WR44 - Courtland Sutton
WR47 - Rashid Shaheed
WR51 - Jalen McMillan (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR52 - Ladd McConkey
WR55 - Josh Downs (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR63 - Luke McCaffrey
WR73 - Mike Williams
WR81 - Marvin Mims
WR91 - Tim Patrick |
| You might notice that players like Jordan Addison, Tyler Lockett, Rashid Shaheed, and Ladd McConkey did not receive the 'injury-contingent' designation, even though each has a WR1 present on their team whose removal would hypothetically result in more opportunities. I don't feel as confident that those players are capable of consistently winning as the number one option in an offense and truly benefiting in a noteworthy way) |
| Tier 11 -- Big win late-round picks |
WR34 - Xavier Worthy
WR37 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR39 - Rome Odunze
WR46 - Keon Coleman |
| Tier 12 -- Buried on a depth chart but might be good |
WR58 - Dontayvion Wicks
WR65 - Xavier Legette
WR69 - Ricky Pearsall
WR70 - Jermaine Burton
WR79 - Malik Washington
WR80 - Jacob Cowing
WR84 - Jahan Dotson
WR86 - Jordan Whittington
WR88 - Cedric Tillman
WR92 - Johnny Wilson
WR95 - Javon Baker
WR96 - Tre Tucker
WR97 - Quentin Johnston
WR98 - John Metchie
WR100 - Tyler Scott |
| TE TIERS |
| Tier 1 -- Young studs with elite peripherals in good offenses |
TE1 - Trey McBride
TE2 - Sam LaPorta (He's my TE1 for half-PPR or non-PPR) |
| Tier 2 -- You know who they are |
TE3 - Travis Kelce
TE4 - Mark Andrews
TE7 - George Kittle |
| A Mark Andrews reminder, in case you need one. Another reminder: He's missing practice. Ravens injury reporting is always weird. Harbaugh expects him to be ready for Week 1. |
| Tier 3 -- If things swing their way, these are TE1 overall candidates |
TE5 - Kyle Pitts
TE6 - Dalton Kincaid |
| Tier 4 -- He's Jake Ferguson, and he's our savior if we miss out on the elite TE upside |
| TE8 - Jake Ferguson |
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| Tier 5 -- They're good! |
TE9 - Evan Engram
TE10 - David Njoku |
| Tier 6 -- Young tight ends who could outproduce Kincaid and Pitts and it would be no surprise at all |
TE11 - Brock Bowers
TE12 - Luke Musgrave
TE13 - T.J. Hockenson (he's not as young as the players in this tier, but he could sneakily outproduce a lot of the tight ends drafted ahead of him down the stretch run if Minnesota's offense is functional)
TE14 - Ben Sinnott (on a per-game basis if/when he supplants Zach Ertz) |
| Tier 7 -- I never draft these players |
TE15 - Dallas Goedert (there is injury-contingent upside)
TE16 - Dalton Schultz (he might score touchdowns! I don't wanna bet on it)
TE17 - Pat Freiermuth (sad. Arthur Smith strikes again) |
| Tier 8 -- I definitely draft these players |
TE18 - Noah Fant
TE19 - Colby Parkinson
TE20 - Tyler Conklin
TE21 - Taysom Hill
TE22 - Hunter Henry (undisclosed injury) |
| Tier 9 -- I guess there is upside. I'm not sure what to expect from a role standpoint |
TE23 - Cole Kmet
TE24 - Michael Mayer
TE26 - Chigoziem Okonwko
TE29 - Gerald Everett |
| Free late-round tight ends who may be viable |
TE27 - Zach Ertz
TE28 - Kylen Granson
TE32 - Cade Otton
TE33 - Jonnu Smith
TE35 - Theo Johnson
TE37 - Hayden Hurst
TE38 - Will Dissly
TE40 - Tommy Tremble |
| Upside players buried on depth charts |
TE30 - Greg Dulcich
TE31 - Isaiah Likely
TE34 - Erick All
TE35 - Theo Johnson
TE39 - Tucker Kraft
TE42 - Cade Stover
TE43 - Jared Wiley |
| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning during the regular season! Until then, we'll be rocking three days a week. Use your newfound free toilet time wisely. Maybe learn a new language over the next few Tuesdays and Thursdays. You learned how to make sense of my ramblings and made-up stats this summer! You are capable of so much! What might you do with this newfound freedom? The world is yours! I will be sleeping. And I hope to occasionally use my free time on Tuesdays and Thursdays to go outside, maybe get some grass and sun on my skin. Take some deep breaths before we lock in for another fun and chaotic ride. NFL is so back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! |
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| | | | | NFL | | 24/7 Sports News | The countdown is on! The NFL season is near and you can catch it on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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