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| Tuesday, September 12, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter. |
| When it comes to the NFL, there's only one thing that anyone is going to be talking about today and that's Aaron Rodgers. The Jets quarterback is done for the season after tearing his Achilles on Monday night. |
| With Rodgers out, the Jets could have given up against the Bills, but instead, they pulled off one of the wildest Monday night wins in recent history. We'll be breaking down the game today, plus taking a closer look at Rodgers' injury, so let's get to the rundown. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It's the perfect gift to get for your favorite football-loving friend at the start of the season. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Today's Show: Early bets for Week 2 |
| With Week 1 officially in the books, we decided to get an early jump on Week 2 today by revealing some of our best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action. |
| During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by SportsLine gambling gurus Emory Hunt and Alex "PropStarz" Selesnick. |
| The crew covered several of their favorite bets for Week 2 and we're going to look at one from each of them below: |
| Hunt: Seahawks (+5.5) to cover against the Lions. "The Seahawks have a banged-up offensive line and the best way to help a banged-up line is to run the football. We saw the Chiefs have success running the ball on the Lions, but they got away from it. ... We're going to see Seattle try to shrink this game by leaning on its run game so I'm willing to take Seattle at +5.5." Katie: Vikings (+7) against the Eagles. "I know the Vikings just lost, but if you watched that game, the Vikings were the better team. They just had those really, really bad turnovers from Kirk Cousins. You have to think they're going to clean that up. ... And then from what I saw with the Eagles offense in Week 1, it kind of worried me to see how Philly played. I think Philly wins this game against Minnesota, but I think the Vikings cover." Brinson: Chiefs at Jaguars OVER 51 total points. "The Chiefs defense didn't do a great job against Detroit and Jacksonville has a better offense than the Lions, so this could turn into a shootout. I would lean toward the over in this game." Selesnick: Giants (-4.5) to cover agains the Cardinals. "There's absolutely value here with the Giants. There's just not a lot of confidence inspired by a Josh Dobbs-led offense. The Giants are going to bounce back. This is a great spot. I think the Giants are going to completely overwhelm them." |
| If you want to hear the rest of the props, including what PropStarz had to offer, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Aaron Rodgers out for the season, plus breaking down the Jets' wild win over the Bills |
| The Jets season got off to a nightmare start on Monday night when Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury on just the fourth offensive snap of the game for New York. |
| Here's what you need to know about the situation: |
| Rodgers has a torn Achilles. At the time of the injury, the Jets labeled it as an ankle issue, but after the game, Robert Saleh revealed that the injury was actually a torn Achilles. Due to that fact, Rodgers is definitely done for the season, and at his age (39), there's an outside chance that he could be done playing football for good. How the injury happened. On the Jets' fourth play from scrimmage, Rodgers dropped back to pass and ended up getting sacked by Leonard Floyd. As Rodgers was going down, his left foot appeared to get caught in the turf, which caused it to bend awkwardly (You can see a photo here). Rodgers was taken to the blue tent after the play before eventually being carted off the field. Jets QB options. Following the Jets' wild 22-16 win over the Bills, Saleh said that the team would be sticking with Zach Wilson. However, if they do look to bring someone in, we made a list of possibilities that you can check out here. The most realistic option right now would probably be Carson Wentz or to just roll with Wilson. Tom Brady could also be in play, but his signing would have to approved by the other owners since he's now part owner of the Raiders. If the Jets are looking to make a trade, they could try to make a deal for someone like Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton. The Packers are also impacted by Rodgers injury. When the Jets traded Rodgers to Green Bay, they were giving multiple draft picks, including a 2023 first-rounder, a 2023 second-rounder and a 2023 sixth-rounder. They also got a 2024 conditional second-round pick that can become a first-round pick if Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps this year, but clearly, that's now not going to happen. |
| Although the Jets lost Rodgers, they ended up pulling off a stunning victory over the Bills. Here's a look at four quick takeaways from New York's 22-16 overtime win. |
| Josh Allen melts down. Not only did the Bills quarterback throw three interceptions, but he also lost a key fumble with under five minutes left to play in the game. Those four turnovers led to 13 points for Jets. The part that stings for Buffalo is that three of the four turnovers came in the second half. Allen finished 29 of 41 for 236 yards and a touchdown, but he also had the three ugly picks. Following the game, Allen blamed himself for the loss, "Same shit, same place, different day," the QB said of his turnovers. Jets defense kept New York in the game. A big reason the Jets were able to pulll off the shocking win is because their defense absolutely shut down the Bills, especially in the second half. The Jets pass-rush had Josh Allen running for his life most of the night in a game where they ended up sacking him five times (Quinton Jefferson had two of those sacks). In the secondary, Jordan Whitehead was the star of the game . The Jets safety came up with all three of the interceptions on Allen. Jets special teams were extra special. Not only did Greg Zuerlein hit three huge field goals for the Jets, but Xavier Gipson won the game in overtime with an electrifying 65-yard punt return TD (You can see the play here). Gipson's return marked just the third time in NFL history that an overtime game ended on a punt return for a touchdown. Garrett Wilson saved the game. With the Bills leading 13-6 in the fourth quarter, Wilson came up with a reception that might end up going down as one of the best catches of the year. On a second-and-goal from the three, Wilson made a TD catch that tied the game at 13 (You can see the play here). |
| It was a wild win for the Jets and they better enjoy it since wins could be much harder to come by going forward now that Rodgers is done for the season. |
| 3. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 2 |
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| The Aaron Rodgers injury definitely had a huge impact on Prisco's Power Rankings this week. For one, the Jets dropped a few spots after losing their starting quarterback to a season-ending injury. The Bills also took a tumble for losing to a Jets team that didn't have Aaron Rodgers. |
| Here's a look at Prisco's top five teams heading into Week 2 with the biggest change coming at the top, where the 49ers are now No. 1 after a week where three of Prisco's preseason top-five teams ended up losing. |
| 49ers (Moved up four spots) Eagles (Same spot as last week) Jaguars (Moved up three spots)Chiefs (Dropped three spots) Cowboys (Moved up five spots) |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings. |
The biggest jump this week went to the Rams, who might have actually just made the biggest jump in the history of the Prisco's Power Rankings. Going into Week 1, the Rams were ranked 31st, but after beating the Seahawks 30-13, Prisco moved them up 11 spots to No. 20.Although there wasn't a huge shake-up in the AFC, there were a total of four NFC teams that moved up at least five spots. Besides the Rams, we also saw the Cowboys, Packers (14th to ninth), Lions (15th to 10th) and Falcons (28th to 19th) all make a big jump. The biggest tumble went to the Bills and Bengals, who both fell NINE spots. The Bills were ranked third going into the season, but they're now at 12th. As for the Bengals, Prisco punished them for their 24-3 loss to the Browns by dropping them from fourth to 13th.If you're wondering where Prisco has the Jets after Rodgers' injury, they fell four spots. Following their upset win over the Bills, the Jets dropped from seventh to 11th. Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. Although Cardinals looked surprisingly good during a 20-16 loss to the Commanders in Week 1, they didn't play well enough to get out of the cellar. For the second straight week, Prisco has Arizona at the bottom of his rankings.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 2 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
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| 4. Breech's Week 2 picks: Chargers finally get a win |
| It's Tuesday, which can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| If this is your first season with us, here's how the formula works around here: I stay up until an insane hour every Monday night so that I can give you my picks every Tuesday morning. Maybe I need to stop staying up so late, because last week, I only went 9-7 against the spread with my pick. I demand perfection and I will keep picking games until I go a perfect 16-0. |
| With that in mind, here are three of my main picks for the week, starting with the first Amazon game of the year on Thursday night: |
| Minnesota at Philadelphia (-7): The Eagles have a better offense, they have a better defense and I think they even have better special teams. Due to those three facts, I think I have to pick Philly. PICK: Eagles 27-17 over LionsL.A. Chargers (-3) at Tennessee: If you missed Tennessee's opener, Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and completed fewer than 50% of his passes. He looked so lost that I'm not sure he can be fixed in one week. I think this game will turn out like last week's game for Tennessee where everyone but Tannehill plays well enough to win. PICK: Chargers 19-16 over TitansArizona at N.Y. Giants (-4): I think the Cardinals defense will keep this game from turning into a blowout, but the Giants' season is on the line, so I can't pick against them here. If the Giants lose this game, they will be the laughingstock of the NFL and I don't think they want to be the laughingstock of the NFL. PICK: Giants 20-13 over Cardinals |
| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 2, be sure to click here. |
| 5. NFL Week 1: Overreaction or reality |
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| Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things and that's especially true when we're talking about the first week of the NFL season. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL this week to decide if we're all overreacting. |
Situation: Tua Tagovailoa is the early frontrunner for MVP.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "When Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, the Dolphins offense is a juggernaut. Tagovailoa was dominant throwing the football in the Dolphins' thrilling 36-34 win over the Chargers, completing 28 of 45 passes for 466 yards with three touchdowns and an interception for a 110.0 rating. ... The Dolphins are a Super Bowl contender in the AFC if Tagovailoa is healthy." |
Situation: The 49ers are the best team in the NFC.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "The 49ers are the biggest threat to the Eagles in the NFC to get to the Super Bowl, but a few more games need to be played out before determining that one. They are one of the five best teams in the NFL and have the potential to be even better." |
Situation: The Titans should make a change at quarterback.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Tannehill was poor on Sunday, but should Tennessee make a quarterback change with him being in the final year of his contract? The sad truth is -- Malik Willis is worse and Will Levis is an unproven rookie. The Titans have no one currently better than Tannehill -- and probably won't for the whole year." |
| There are plenty more overreactions from Week 1 and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Chris Jones is back with the Chiefs |
| It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Chris Jones signs one-year deal. The Chiefs star is finally back with the team after agreeing to a one-year deal. Jones had one year left on his deal and the two sides basically took that deal and enhanced it. Jones will still be making $19.5 million in base salary, but the Chiefs agreed to add nearly $6 million in bonuses that will allow him to earn up to $25.17 million in 2023, according to ProFootballTalk. Of course, Jones was hit with $2 million in fines for missing training camp and he also missed a game check, which means he lost out on roughly $3.5 million. This means that even if he hits all those bonuses, he'll only be making roughly $3 million in extra cash this year. Steelers star Cam Heyward out multiple weeks . The Steelers defensive end will be out for an extended period of time after injuring his groin. Heyward is going to undergo surgery and the current estimate seems to be that he could miss anywhere from 5-8 weeks.
Browns lose their starting right tackle for the season. The Browns and Steelers will be playing each other in Week 2 and both teams will be dealing with a major injury. For the Browns, that injury is to Jack Conklin, who will miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL against the Bengals in Week 1. The loss of their All-Pro right tackle is a brutal one for the Browns. Seahawks expected to work out Jason Peters. After watching the Seahawks offensive line struggle in Week 1, Pete Carroll has decided to look for some help. To that end, Seattle brought in veteran offensive lineman Jason Peters for a workout on Monday. If the 41-year-old Peters signs, he'd become the oldest player in the NFL. ESPN to unveil a Toy Story alternate broadcast. On the heels of Paramount's success with its alternate NFL broadcasts on Nickelodeon, ESPN is also going to produce a broadcast aimed at children. The broadcast will happen on Oct. 1 when the Falcons play the Jaguars in London. If you're wondering what this broadcast will look like, you can see a brief teaser preview here. |
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