| Good morning Voornaam, As you look at your share portfolio this year, you may be inclined to jump on the bandwagon of "the market is a casino" - and at silly enough valuations, it kinda is. As always, following sensible strategies will pay off over the long term.
As for actual casinos, Sun International seems to have had a terrific second half in 2024 - although mainly in the online betting side of the business. For the sake of my own sanity, I've tried to convince myself that this timing is purely a coincidence and has nothing to do with two-pot payouts. Considering we saw an uptick in discretionary retail categories like clothing and furniture at the same time, I've gotta tell you that I'm not feeling confident about how South Africans chose to spend their money last year.
Moving on, AVI shows us that they didn't spend that money on biscuits. Instead, tea and coffee were the order of the day. We might be gambling online like crazy, but at least we are managing our sugar intake as a country. If anyone knows how to turn modest revenue growth into a strong profit performance, it's AVI.
On the disappointing side of things, I'm afraid that Mpact has very little to smile about after the performance of the Plastics division in 2024. Merafe also had a tough year, although their problems are based on external commodity pressures.
In the property sector, Texton's earnings were flat and NAV came in lower, yet the share price has significantly closed the discount to NAV over the past year. Does the higher cash balance at Texton have anything to do with this?
Finally, Assura (the recent addition to the JSE from the UK market) looks set to leave as quickly as it arrived, with a non-binding cash offer on the table that the board is likely to support. Primary Health Properties, the other recent arrival to our market for the UK, is also working on merger proposal to Assura. Spare a thought for the JSE and its efforts to attract new listings.
Get my analysis on all these updates (plus the Nibbles) in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
The next company to present on Unlock the Stock is HomeChoice, so be sure to register for free to engage directly with management this Thursday at 12pm.
Hosted by Jeremy Maggs and part of the excellent Investec Focus Radio stable, the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday focuses on whether China is Trump-proof. You don't want to miss this one! Find it here>>>
In Magic Markets, the team from Mesh Trade joined us to explain how you can invest in gold using blockchain technology. Interesting, right? Talk about tradition meeting technology! To learn about fractional ownership of Krugerrands (and a discount available for a limited time), listen to this podcast>>>
Finally, where does the future of shopping lie? Is it click, or brick? Or perhaps both? Dominique Olivier's latest column digs into recent eCommerce stats and trends. Be sure to give it a read here>>>
Have a lovely day! |
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| SATRIX: Don't waste the TFSA opportunity |
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| | | Tax-free savings accounts (TFSA) are one of the most building blocks in any equity portfolio. The advantage of compounding tax-free returns over a long period is incredibly powerful and can really turbocharge a long-term wealth creation journey.
To discuss the importance of TFSA investments and the opportunities available to investors in the ETF universe, familiar voice Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix returned to the Ghost Stories podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Retailers on sale on the JSE - a review of the first few weeks of 2025 |
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| The retail sector got off to a very poor start in 2025. With practically the entire sector down, are there stocks that were punished more than they should've been?
This podcast is a useful summary of recent retail updates across the clothing and grocery sectors, as well as other relevant areas.
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | AVI and Sun International were the highlights of the day. There was bad news at Mpact and Merafe, with little to get excited about at Texton as well. Assura is dealing with its potential suitors, including Primary Health Properties! Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Afrimat |
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| In the 48th edition of Unlock the Stock, popular JSE mid-cap Afrimat returned to the platform for a management presentation and interactive Q&A with attendees of the webinar. The recording is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Click or brick: where does the future of shopping lie? |
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| | | Online shopping was supposed to take over the world - so why are more people demanding access to physical stores? The numbers tell an interesting story about the need for omnichannel strategies. Read it here>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Is China Trump-proof? |
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| | | Tariffs may have a diminished impact on China, as the country has strategically restructured its supply chains to lessen its reliance on the US. This is according to Campbell Parry, global resources analyst at Investec Wealth and Investment International, on the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday available here>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| If you hold a large portfolio of US stocks, you'll need a strong stomach to open your brokerage platform this morning. I've actively avoided Tesla (and been vocal about that decision throughout), so a 15% drop in that share price yesterday managed to miss me. The risk is exactly what it has always been: the company is synonymous with Elon Musk. Love him or hate him, he's a super polarising figure and that generally isn't good for sales. The stock has fallen every single week since Elon Musk became America's proxy president.
For the sake of balance and to show you that Europe is far from being out of the woods, Volkswagen reported a 15% drop in annual operating profit. They don't expect a particularly great recovery year ahead, with a dangerous cocktail of Chinese rivals and global geopolitical noise. As for tariffs, it's anyone's guess how that could play out.
Given the jitters in the US at the moment, we decided to cover a European defence stock (not the spelling!) as our latest report in Magic Markets Premium. BAE Systems finds itself in an interesting position, with strong links into the US, European and allied military budgets. It's a better business than many of the continental Europe names, as reflected in the valuation. Our subscribers can enjoy our detailed work on this growth stock. |
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| Magic Markets: Buying gold on the blockchain |
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| | | Magic Markets: If there’s one thing the markets taught us recently, it’s that gold remains as relevant as ever. Mesh Trade brings you a new way to invest in this store of value, giving you a perfect example of tradition combined with tech.
For a limited time, Mesh investors can buy Krugerrands at the best retail price in the market and on a fractional basis using blockchain technology. Mesh also offers a wide range of tokenised financial assets, giving investors a multi-asset solution on a single platform.
To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| The S&P 500 futures dropped significantly amid intensifying recession fears, following a major market sell-off. The US stock market has seen substantial losses, influenced partly by ongoing tariff uncertainties.
European stocks hit their lowest point in nearly a month on Monday, led by a sharp decline in tech shares. This was fueled by persistent concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic growth prospects.
Asian markets mirrored Wall Street's downturn on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei and Taiwan's indices falling approximately 3%, their lowest since September. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) also declined by over 1%, driven by fears of a US recession and the impact of tariffs, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen.
Gold prices edged higher, supported by a weaker dollar and increased safe-haven demand amid global economic uncertainties and trade tensions.
Brent crude oil futures declined to around $69.01 per barrel, marking their second consecutive day of losses. The drop is attributed to mounting fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and concerns about weakening oil demand.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.33/$ | US 10yr 4.19% | Gold $2,902/oz | Platinum $961/oz | Brent Crude $69.31
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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