| Good morning Voornaam, I'm afraid that the direction of travel in the Aspen share price is going to be rather nasty today. The company released an announcement yesterday that raised more questions than answers. More details will emerge today after the conference call with investors, but for now we have to work off the knowledge that they are expecting a major drop in EBITDA thanks to a dispute with a customer. It raises a lot of questions about how much of a moat Aspen actually has in its contract manufacturing business.
It's a very different story at Standard Bank at least, where headline earnings grew 10% year-on-year in the latest quarter. The Africa Regions continue to contribute more than 40% of earnings. Standard Bank is so confident at the moment that they haven't even changed their guidance for the year despite the economic difficulties out there. That's a brave call!
In other news, Coronation's AUM was flat this quarter. Oasis Crescent achieved inflation-beating growth in the distribution. Texton is sending a lot of cash back to shareholders, but why not as a share buyback? Finally, Tharisa released the Competent Person's Report for the Karo Project.
These details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
For those who enjoy doing detailed research on single stocks, the most recent edition of Unlock the Stock gives you a great opportunity to learn more about CA Sales Holdings. This has been one of the genuine success stories on the JSE in recent years, with a business model that has no direct peer on our market. Learn more here>>>
The latest episode of Magic Markets is packed with insights, particularly if you've ever wondered how carry trades work and what their impact on currencies and yields can be. We talked about the global asset ownership web in general, a particularly relevant point in the current geopolitical context. Get it here>>>
Finally, I was very chuffed to see how well Satrix did at SALTA this year. These are the industry awards for ETFs and Satrix took home 10 accolades. They have been a wonderful supporter of Ghost Mail as you know, so you should check out the list of awards at this link>>>
Have a day! |
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| GHOST STORIES: Diversification - the way to survive market chaos |
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| | | With the markets in disarray in the aftermath of tariffs, it looks like the theme this year is more around risk management in a bear market rather than which growth stocks to buy.
This is where strategic asset allocation becomes key, as discussed with Kingsley Williams of Satrix in this podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST STORIES: Debt markets - the other side of the coin |
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| | | Intengo Market is a digital marketplace for debt instruments in South Africa, driving outcomes like increased liquidity and price discovery.
CEO Ian Norden joined me on this podcast to give an overview of the debt markets in South Africa. From trends in public vs. private markets through to how Dutch auctions work, there's so much in here - and you can expect many more insights in months to come.
Learn all about the debt markets in this podcast>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Aspen is going to have a rough day. Standard Bank achieved 10% growth. Coronation's AUM went sideways this quarter. Oasis Crescent and Texton released property sector updates. In mining, Tharisa released the CPR for the Karo Project. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - CA Sales Holdings |
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| In the 51st edition of Unlock the Stock, regular attendee CA Sales Holdings returned to the platform to talk about the recent performance and strategic focus areas for the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Colombia has a cocaine hippo problem |
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| | | Ecosystems are like very complicated Jenga towers: one wrong move, and suddenly you’ve got starlings in New York, hippos in Colombia, and scientists frantically trying to put the pieces back together. Dominique Olivier tells the story of Pablo Escobar's hippos in this piece>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Positioning for tariff turmoil |
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| | | In this special edition of Investec’s No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Chris Holdsworth and Osagyefo Mazwai to delve into the recent market turmoil following President Donald Trump's controversial tariff announcements. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| I'm not even remotely surprised that Tesla reported a significant drop in revenue. I'm also not surprised that the share price went up anyway. The Tesla share price is as far removed from reality as Musk himself, hence why I avoid it entirely. Automotive revenue fell 20% year-on-year, with lower average selling prices as a major contributor to the issue. Net income fell by 71%. I will say it again, as I've said for the past few years now: Tesla does not operate in a competitive vacuum. The Chinese aren't just coming - they are here. And so are the Europeans.
Moving on to a company that actually has a moat, Lockheed Martin beat forecasts for revenue and profit in the latest quarter. As the maker of the F-35 fighter jet (Ray-Bans sold separately), this is one of the companies that benefits from more geopolitical tension in the world.
This week in Magic Markets Premium, we've covered Delta Air Lines. They came into this year expecting their best year ever. Now, they've pulled full-year guidance. Talk about a deterioration! As our subscribers will find out in the Delta research, the issue is more around uncertainty than observable problems - for now, at least. |
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| ICYMI: Magic Markets - Trade Wars and Trading |
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| | | Magic Markets: With the markets all over the place and practically impossible to predict, Moe is busy with a day-trading strategy and Ghost has bought a few dips, ranging from technology through to golf. Is there method in this madness? What is really going on out there? And should we be thinking more and more about China?
Volatility can be wild, but it’s also a key feature of the markets and a very exciting time for those who like to see action on the screens. In this episode, our passion for the markets really shines through. We invite you to join us.
To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| US President Donald Trump hinted at a potential easing of tariffs on China, saying tariffs will "come down substantially" - though not eliminated entirely. This signals a possible de-escalation in the US-China trade war, which has been causing global economic uncertainty. The US stock market showed a rebound with Wall Street rallying after the US Treasury Secretary declared the trade war with China "unsustainable". This optimism follows Trump backing off a threat to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
European index futures and Asian equity markets are following suit with a positive start to the day. The dollar index has strengthened against the majors, although surprisingly we are seeing the recent appreciation of the rand maintained. The JSE All-Share Index is expected to open up firmer this morning in line with its global peers.
In the Middle East, Israel has conducted deadly airstrikes on Gaza, breaking a ceasefire with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that these strikes are "only the beginning," with hundreds reported killed in Gaza. The situation remains tense with ongoing conflict and international concern over civilian casualties, including a recent attack on a school shelter in Gaza that killed at least 10 people, including a child.
The US imposed new sanctions targeting a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping, which has raised speculation that Iranian oil exports could be curtailed, tightening supply. Industry data showed US crude inventories fell by approximately 4.6 million barrels last week, potentially the largest weekly draw since November, indicating stronger demand or reduced supply. These factors are contributing to the current rebound in oil we are seeing.
Gold prices have pulled back after reaching all-time highs the previous day. Spot gold dropped about 0.7% to around $3,357 per ounce, and US gold futures declined roughly 1.5% to about $3,367 per ounce. This correction followed a shift in market sentiment triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump softening his stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and expressing optimism about a potential trade deal with China, which boosted risk appetite and reduced gold's safe-haven appeal. The recent pullback can be attributed to profit-taking after a strong rally and a stronger US dollar, which makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers. The easing of geopolitical tensions, including hints from Russia's President Putin about halting the Ukraine war, has also reduced immediate safe-haven demand.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.54/$ | US 10yr 4.36% | Gold $3,309/oz | Platinum $964/oz | Brent Crude $68.44
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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