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March 10, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Economic Roundup: European Central Bank Gets Aggressive and Creative
Actions will help the economy but only modestly; the ECB can't do it alone.

How Long Can Brazil Stay on Top?
Mexico may not reach Brazil's economic stature for three decades.

U.S. Services Survey Nudges Q4 GDP Lower
We have cut our tracking estimate from 1.1% to 1% at an annual rate.

The Soothing Effect of U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Claims will have to make a sustained break above 300,000 to signal significantly weaker job growth.

View More Analysis


Insight on Critical Issues

Asia-Pacific Economic Preview: 14-18 March
Data will show that risks to the Asia-Pacific outlook remain downwardly skewed.

Europe Economic Preview: 14-18 March
Greece is under pressure from the migration crisis and its international creditors.

U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting
The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy.

Brave New World of Negative Interest Rates, Part 2
Negative policy rates and quantitative easing, taken together, pack a punch.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagBrazilRetail Sales Index
January-10.3%
Retail sales continued to contract in Brazil at the beginning of the year as the economy remained in ...
 
FlagCanadaNew Housing Price Index
January1.8%
Ontario and British Columbia continue to lead Canadian house prices higher. Canada's New House Price ...
 
FlagCanadaIndustrial Capacity Utilization
2015Q481.1%
Canadian industries decreased their production capacity by 0.5 percentage point in the fourth quarter ...
 
FlagColombiaGDP
2015Q43.3%
Colombia's economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in the final quarter of 2015 led by manufacturing, ...
 
FlagEuro ZoneMonetary Policy
March0.0%
The European Central Bank cut all three main monetary policy rates while announcing further monetary ...
 
FlagFranceNonfarm Payrolls
2015Q415.9 mil
According to the final number, nonfarm payrolls in France increased 0.2% to 15.9 million in the three ...
 
FlagFranceIndustrial Production
January1.3%
Industrial production in France increased 1.3% m/m seasonally adjusted in January, following a 0.6% decrease ...
 
FlagGermanyForeign Trade
January€18.9 bil
Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €18.9 billion in January from a revised €20.3 billion in the previous ...
 
FlagSpainRetail Sales
January2%
Spain's retail trade, not seasonally adjusted, expanded 2% y/y in January, down from a revised 3.2% increase ...
 
FlagUnited StatesFinancial Accounts - Households
2015Q4$86.8 tril
Household wealth jumped in the fourth quarter, but, coming off a decline, it is still growing only slowly, ...
 
FlagUnited StatesFinancial Accounts - Nonfinancial Corporate
2015Q4$22.80 tril
Nonfinancial corporate business balance sheets have improved substantially since the Great Recession. ...
 
FlagUnited StatesSt. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
03/04/2016-0.609
Financial market conditions eased last week as oil and equity markets rebounded. The St. Louis Fed Financial ...
 
FlagUnited StatesTreasury Budget
February-$192.6 bil
The federal budget deficit is trending lower this fiscal year compared with the last one, but policymakers ...
 
FlagUnited StatesNatural Gas Storage Report
03/04/2016-57 bil cubic feet
Despite the beginning of spring weather and rising inventories in many regions, overall inventories fell, ...
 
FlagUnited StatesJobless Claims
03/05/2016259,000
The U.S. job market has not been significantly affected by the tightening in financial market conditions ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 29.2

The slide in global business confidence that began during the summer seems to be over. Sentiment still appears fragile, but survey responses are no longer eroding. The weakest response is to businesses’ assessments of present conditions; there are roughly as many respondents saying conditions are improving as saying they are weakening. Expectations regarding the outlook this summer remain stronger. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good, and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

Global Outlook: Calling All Hands
Collective action is needed to protect the recovery.

U.S. Chartbook: Shifting Mix Between Growth and Inflation
Fed should punt in March but may not be able to delay too long.

Candidate Report Card: The Republicans
Tax proposals are transparent, simple and expensive.

Fed Should Allow Inflation to Overshoot the 2% Target
The anticipated acceleration in inflation appears under way, but the Fed should remain patient.

Economic Roundup: Boom Goes the U.S. Labor Market
Job growth exceeds expectations and slack is quickly vanishing.



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UPCOMING EVENTS
The Topsy-Turvy World of Negative Interest Rates
March 16, 2016


EBA Scenarios for the 2016 EU-wide Stress Test
March 23, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic Briefing - Stamford CT
March 24, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
April 05, 2016


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