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March 15, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Colombia's Peso Exposed to Oil Price Fluctuations
Recent volatility generates uncertainty.

FOMC Preview: Fed to Punt Now, Hike Soon
June is likely for a rate increase, but we haven't ruled out April.

Asia Spotlight: External Pressures Weigh on New Zealand
The domestic economy is performing well despite weak export demand.

Retail Sales and Business Inventories a Wash for Q1 U.S. GDP
The first quarter still tracks at 1.5% at an annual rate, but the composition is slightly better.

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Insight on Critical Issues

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Expansion Continues
The outlook is upbeat, for most of the country.

U.S. Chartbook: Resilience is Tested
The expansion is still in mid-cycle, but recent financial market tightness has tempered sentiment.

Commodity Outlook: Oil Prices Heading Higher
The dollar is losing ground, economic fears are subsiding, and U.S. production is easing.

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 11, 2016
Mounting evidence says that recession fears are premature.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagFranceConsumer Price Index
February-0.1%
France’s EU-harmonized consumer price index was down 0.1% y/y in February because of weak prices of energy ...
 
FlagIndonesiaForeign Trade
FebruaryUS$1.14 bil
Indonesia's monthly trade surplus returned in February after a deficit late last year. But the US$1.14 ...
 
FlagItalyConsumer Price Index
February-0.2%
Deflation pressures intensified in February, with annual harmonized inflation retreating to -0.2% from ...
 
FlagJapanIndustry Activity Indexes
January1.5%
Japan's industrial activity remains relatively downbeat, despite January's surprise uptick. The industry ...
 
FlagJapanMonetary Policy
March¥80 tril.
Because of low inflation expectations, Japan will continue its experiment with qualitative and quantitative ...
 
FlagPeruUnemployment
February6.9%
Seasonal workers are losing their jobs, contributing to a spike in unemployment in Peru's capital. Unemployment ...
 
FlagUnited StatesBusiness Inventories (MTIS)
January0.1%
Business inventories rose 0.1% in January, slightly above consensus estimates and a negative for the ...
 
FlagUnited StatesNAHB Housing Market Index
March58
Homebuilder sentiment is on solid ground even though there have been few notable gains for the industry ...
 
FlagUnited StatesNY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
March0.6
The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests that New York's factories are finding their footing ...
 
FlagUnited StatesProducer Price Index
February-0.2%
The modest step back in the producer price index for final demand does not alter our view that the turn ...
 
FlagUnited StatesRetail Sales
February-0.1%
The lack of pricing power continues to weigh on retail sales with this disappointing report. Retail sales ...
 
FlagUnited StatesTreasury International Capital Flows
January-$12.0 bil
Foreign official investors stepped up their selling of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes. Net long-term capital ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.9

Business sentiment has firmed in recent weeks in tandem with the rally in global financial markets. The turmoil in markets late last year and early this year had noticeably weakened confidence, hitting assessments of present conditions especially hard. But recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. Expectations regarding the outlook into this summer remain notably strong, with over half of respondents saying conditions will improve by then. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

Global Outlook: Calling All Hands
Collective action is needed to protect the recovery.

U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting
The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy.

U.S. Chartbook: Silencing the Critics
Job growth and vehicle sales in February should allay concerns about the economy.

Forecasters' Mailbag: Inflation, 'Bartender Recovery,' Oil Inventories
Have a question on the economy? Send it along.

Economic Roundup: Boom Goes the U.S. Labor Market
Job growth exceeds expectations and slack is quickly vanishing.



About Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation, helps capital markets and credit risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. Through its team of economists, Moody’s Analytics is a leading independent provider of research, credit risk management, modeling, data, and forecasts at the global, national and subnational levels.

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UPCOMING EVENTS
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