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March 04, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Canada Weekly: Takeaways From Q4 Growth
The economy ended 2015 with a second consecutive quarterly increase in real GDP.

LatAm Weekly: When It Rains It Pours
El Niño weather is disrupting Latin American economies.

Job Market Highlights Resiliency of U.S. Economy
Don't stress over drop in average hourly earnings.

Trade Still Set to Be a Drag on Q1 U.S. GDP
The nominal trade deficit widened in January as exports continue to stumble.

View More Analysis


Insight on Critical Issues

Candidate Report Card: The Republicans
Tax proposals are transparent, simple and expensive.

Forecasters’ Mailbag: An Easing Bias Across Asia
Have a question on the economy? Send it along.

Latin America Economic Preview: 7-11 March
Inflation is trending up.

Global Outlook: Calling All Hands
Collective action is needed to protect the recovery.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagBrazilIndustrial Production
January-11.3%
Brazil’s industrial production began the year with a prolonged and significant contraction given the ...
 
FlagCanadaInternational Merchandise Trade
January-C$ 0.655 bil
Canada's international trade balance registered a C$655 million deficit in January following the C$631 ...
 
FlagCanadaPurchasing Managers' Index
February53.4
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 53.4 in February from 66 in January. ...
 
FlagItalyGDP
2015Q40.1%
Italy’s recovery continued to slow in the fourth quarter of 2015, with the economy growing 0.1% following ...
 
FlagNorth AmericaECRI Future Inflation Gauge
February105.1 (U.S.)
Despite imported deflation pressures and oil prices near a 12-year low, a recovery in inflation will ...
 
FlagRussiaConsumer Price Index
February0.6%
Aggregate consumer price inflation in Russia was 0.6% in February, lower than in the previous month. ...
 
FlagUnited StatesECRI Weekly Leading Index
02/26/2016129.2
The reference week was relatively uneventful for economic data, keeping the ECRI weekly leading index ...
 
FlagUnited StatesEmployment Situation
February242,000
Payroll employment held up in February confirming that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite global ...
 
FlagUnited StatesInternational Trade (FT900)
January-$45.7 bil
U.S. trade continues to display lackluster performance, and the trade deficit increased by $1 billion ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 28.5

Global business confidence has seemingly stabilized after steadily weakening late last year and early this year. Sentiment still appears fragile, but survey responses are no longer eroding. Most worrisome is the decline in businesses’ assessments of present conditions. The weaker sentiment readings are clearly linked to the turmoil in global financial markets. Despite the decline in confidence, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good, and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Housing Outlook: Steady Progress
Single-family construction is slowly starting to pick up.

U.S. Chartbook: Shifting Mix Between Growth and Inflation
Fed should punt in March but may not be able to delay too long.

U.S. Employment Outlook: Testing Resilience
Evidence of a labor market quickly approaching full employment is mounting.

Economic Roundup: Now, It's Getting Interesting
The much anticipated turn in inflation is under way, but the timing is bad for the Fed.

The Democrat's Student Loan Exam
Six of 11 states with Super Tuesday primaries have a per-capita rate of educational debt in the U.S. top 20.



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UPCOMING EVENTS
Moody's Analytics Economic Briefing - Stamford CT
March 24, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
April 05, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Orange County CA
April 06, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Los Angeles CA
April 07, 2016


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