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| Thursday, September 29, 2022 |
| Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| Since it's Thursday, that means there's a game tonight and the NFL might as well go ahead and cancel the rest of Week 4 because nothing this week is going to top what we're getting tonight: Dolphins at Bengals. |
| Even if both these teams were 0-3, I'd still be excited to watch this game and that's because the Bengals are debuting their new white tiger look, which might be the coolest uniform combination in the history of football. If you haven't seen the white tiger helmet or the uniform or if you're wondering what they look like together, you can check it out by clicking here. |
| Although I love the white tiger uniforms, I promise we'll be talking about the actual game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be taking a look at three starting quarterbacks who could soon be replaced. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Alright, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Brady Quinn breaks down the latest NFL news |
| If you're going to listen to just one episode of the Pick Six podcast every week, then you should definitely make sure that you're listening every Thursday, because that's when Brady Quinn joins the show. For today's episode, the former first-round pick chatted with Will Brinson about a multitude of topics, including what it was like to be on the call in the Fox announcing booth for the one touchdown dance that got penalized in Week 3 AKA Jamal Williams doing the Hingle McCringleberry three-thrust celebration (You can see the celebration here) |
| It was pretty hilarious to hear Brady explain what was going through his head while Williams was doing his illegal thrusts. For one, Brady was hoping that Fox would make their rules analyst, Mike Pereira, join the broadcast so that he would have to explain why hip thrusting is illegal. |
| "I was hitting up our producer and I was like, 'Bring on Mike Pereira, I want Mike Pereira to have to come on and talk about this in-depth.' I want to go back and do the replay [with Pereira]. I want to show different angles," Quinn said. "I was really hoping to get Pereira in a professional setting having to break down what seemed to be a sexual act that made it on to a Fox broadcast of an NFL game and unfortunately, our producer wouldn't let it happen." |
| Getting a behind-the-scenes look at his most recent broadcast wasn't the only great part of today's episode. Brady also talked about plenty of other NFL-related topics, like whether it's time for the Saints to give Andy Dalton a chance to start. |
| If you want to hear everything Quinn had to say on today's podcast, then be sure to click here. If you want to see his handsome face, then you can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Thursday night preview: Prepping you for Dolphins at Bengals |
| The Dolphins are the only undefeated team in the AFC and they'll be trying to keep their record perfect tonight when they travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. |
| Before we get to the game preview, I'm going to start here by reminding you that there's only one way to watch the game tonight: If you want to see this showdown, you'll have to subscribe to Amazon Prime. You can actually get a free 30-day subscription to prime right now by going to this link. That will allow you to watch the next five Thursday games before you have to decide whether you actually want to pay for Prime. (Note: The game WILL be airing on TV in the home markets of each team, so if you live in Cincinnati or Miami, then you'll be able to watch on a local TV station.) |
| Anyway, back to the preview. |
| My good buddy Jared Dubin put together CBSSports.com's deep-dive preview for this game. Here's how he sees the game playing out: |
| Why the Dolphins can win: Through three weeks, there are only three players in the NFL who have more than 315 receiving yards and two of them play for the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle). The duo has basically been unstoppable for Miami and if they continue to put up big numbers, that likely means that the Dolphins are going to win. The Dolphins have had almost zero success running the ball -- they have the second fewest rushing yards in the NFL -- so if this offense is going to win a shootout with the Bengals, Hill and Waddle will likely have to come up big. One thing to keep an eye on is the health of Tua Tagovailoa. Although he's expected to play, he was limited all week in practice with both back and ankle injuries. Why the Bengals can win: The Dolphins defense is surrendering 413.3 yards per game this year, which is the second most in the NFL. The Dolphins are winning games though because their "Bend, but don't break" defense has been giving up a lot of yards, but not as many points to go along with it. Unfortunately for the Dolphins though, the Bengals have the type of offense that could bend the Miami defense so far that it finally breaks. The Bengals have plenty of weapons on offense in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst, and that's a lot to deal with for a Dolphins team that has one banged up corner (Xavien Howard) and another who won't be playing (Byron Jones). If Joe Burrow goes off against this defense, the Bengals will probably feel pretty good about their chances of winning. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview (odds via Caesars Sportsbook). |
| You can check out Sullivan's full gambling preview by clicking here, but if you don't feel like clicking over, here's one prop from both of us for tonight's game (We both hit our props from Monday's game, so we'll see if we can keep this roll going). |
| ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Joe Mixon OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-127): "Mixon is averaging 6.6 targets per game this season and is facing a Dolphins defense that just gave up 143 receiving yards to running backs last week." ONE PROP I LIKE: Evan McPherson OVER 7.5 total points (-103) or OVER 1.5 field goals (-142): Dating back to last season, McPherson has gone over this total in 10 of the past 11 games he's played in (including the playoffs). Also, the only time he didn't go over it came in this year's opener when he likely would have gone over the total if the Bengals long snapper didn't get injured (McPherson scored six points in the game, but left four on the table with a missed 29-yard field goal and an extra point that got blocked). As for the field goal prop, McPherson has gone over 1.5 field goals in 11 straight games. I can't overstate this enough: The Bengals love kicking field goals. I like the total points prop slightly better just because it has better value, but I really like both of these props. |
| Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight: |
Dubin's pick: Dolphins 27-24 over Bengals
Sullivan's pick: Bengals 24-23 over Dolphins
My pick: Bengals 34-27 over Dolphins |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, four of our six experts are taking the Bengals, but that could even out, because there will still be two expert picks coming in before the game kicks off. |
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| 3. Agent's take: Three starting quarterbacks who could soon lose their job |
| When you have a former NFL agent on staff, it's always nice to get his opinion on as many topics as possible, and this week, CBSSports.com's former NFL agent (Joel Corry) decided to take a look at three veteran quarterbacks who could soon be losing their starting job. Although guys like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have nothing to worry about, there are plenty of quarterbacks who should be looking over their shoulder over the next few weeks. |
| Here's a look at the three quarterbacks who might not finish the season as their team's starter: |
| Steelers QB Mitchell Trubisky. "Selecting Kenny Pickett with the 20th overall pick in this year's NFL Draft put Trubisky on notice that he wasn't Pittsburgh's long-term solution at quarterback. Pittsburgh's offense has been struggling with Trubisky under center. Trubisky has been criticized for a reluctance to throw the football down the field. He is averaging a league-worst 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada has come under fire as well for the problems with the offense. After the Jets on Sunday, the Steelers face the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles in succession. Realistically, the Steelers could be 1-7 or 2-6 after that stretch heading into a bye week. It wouldn't be surprising for Tomlin to make a switch to Pickett after the bye if the offense is still stagnant." Saints QB Jameis Winston. "Winston is playing through four fractures in his back but he seems to have regressed in his decision-making. He has already thrown five interceptions in three games. Just as concerning is New Orleans' almost nonexistent offense in the first half of its three games this season given that Winston has much better weapons at his disposal than in 2021. The Saints have a seasoned backup in Andy Dalton. The 12-year veteran has a 77-69-2 record as a starter. Dalton is on a one-year, $3 million deal worth up to $6 million through incentives. Winston is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions. Continuing to be among the league leaders isn't a blueprint for job security." NOTE: With Winston battling injuries, Dalton could end up starting this week and if the Saints win, it wouldn't be surprising to see New Orleans stick with the Red Rifle. Panthers QB Baker Mayfield. "The early returns for Mayfield haven't been good as the Panthers have gotten off to a 1-2 start. Mayfield's 51.9 completion percentage is 31st in the NFL. He also ranks near the bottom in passer rating (25th) and passing yards (29th). Head coach Matt Rhule may have a low tolerance for subpar quarterback play because of a shaky future with the Panthers." |
| For a full look at Corry's take on these three situations, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. Rookie rankings heading into Week 4: Sauce Gardner makes big jump |
| If you read this newsletter regularly, then you know we love to rank things here. And if you don't read it regularly, I have some news for you: We love to rank things here, and today, we have rookie rankings. |
| CBSSports.com's Josh Edwards ranks the NFL's top rookies every week, and here's how things stand as we get ready to kick off Week 4 tonight. |
| Top rookies heading into Week 4: |
| 1. Falcons WR Drake London. "London, who caught three passes for 54 yards and a TD against the Seahawks, has been the target on 31.6% of Marcus Mariota's pass attempts this season. His size and speed represent a comparable advantage to that of Kyle Pitts in the pass game"2. Jets WR Garrett Wilson. "Wilson took a massive shot in the first half but did return to the game. Cincinnati did a better job of limiting the big plays Wilson was able to make in this game, but he still finished with six catches for 60 yards." 3. Jets CB Sauce Gardner. "Gardner, who was ranked 10th last week, was a nuisance for Bengals receivers. He raked out a few balls at the catch point."4. Texans safety Jalen Pitre. "There is a lot of value in a player that always finds himself around the football and that is Pitre. He is just as likely to be making plays in the backfield as he is in coverage. He was one broken tackle away from taking his first career interception to the house against the Bears in a game where he had two picks."5. Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr. "Stingley projects a lot of confidence on the field and has the makings of a lockdown NFL cornerback. There were moments he could have shown better awareness in zone coverage against the Bears but the arrow is pointing up." |
| Edwards actually ranked a total of 15 rookies, and if you want to check out his entire list, be sure to click here. |
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| 5. NFL MVP Vote: Changes could be coming to the MVP process |
| The NFL MVP is handed out every year, but one thing you might not know about the award is that it isn't actually handed out by the NFL. Instead, the award is handed out by the Associated Press. There are a total of 50 sports writers -- all chosen by the AP -- who get to vote on the award. |
| If you're wondering why I'm explaining all of this now, it's because CBSSports.com's NFL Insider Jonathan Jones is reporting that the voting format could soon be changing. |
| Here's what we know: |
| The current structure: Under the current rules, each voter is only allowed to name one person on their ballot. The downside of the current set up is that you can't vote for multiple candidates, and with only 50 voters, there's a good chance you can have a tie (There was a tie for the award in both 1997 and 2003). The possible new set up: According to Jones, the AP is considering a set up where voters would be able to rank candidates on their ballot. For instance, a voter might be able to list five players with their top choice getting five points, their second choice getting four points and so on. At that point, the player with the most voter points would be named MVP (My example wouldn't necessarily be the new structure, it's just an explanation of how the new structure might work). Why the AP has avoided this set up in the past. Although AP voters have long called for the MVP system to be reformed, the AP has shied away from doing it because of one nightmare scenario, which would be a situation where a player wins MVP even though they didn't get the most first place votes. If a player gets 25 first-place votes, no second place votes, 24 third-place votes and one fourth-place vote, they could lose to a player who gets 50 second-place votes. |
| For more on the possible changes that could be coming, be sure to click here so you can check out Jones' story. |
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| 6. Rapid-fire roundup: Backup location chosen for Chiefs at Buccaneers game |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Chiefs-Buccaneers game could be moved to Minnesota. With Hurricane Ian causing devastation in Florida, the NFL has a contingency plan in place in case Sunday night's game has to be moved out of Tampa. If the game is relocated, it will be played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota . That stadium is available because the Vikings are playing in London this week. The NFL is expected to make a final decision on the location of the game by Friday. The Tampa Sports Authority told the team today that it will have enough resources to host the game, so the guess here is that Brady vs. Mahomes will end up staying in Tampa. Joey Bosa placed on injured reserve. Brandon Staley announced on Wednesday that Bosa will be undergoing surgery on his injured groin and will be placed on IR. Although Staley expects Bosa to return this season, it won't be anytime soon. Bosa has to miss at least four weeks due to his IR stint, and due to the nature of his injury, it will likely be even longer than that.
Myles Garrett receives citation for car car crash. After a crash investigation, the Ohio State Highway Patrol has issued Garrett a citation for "failure to control his vehicle" and "Unsafe speed for the type of roadway being traveled appeared to be a contributing circumstance." The Browns star was driving his car on Monday when it flipped off the road. Garrett was taken to the hospital to be evaluated, but was released less than 24 hours later. NFL players allowed to wear international flags on helmet in Weeks 4 and 5. Over the next two weeks, NFL players will be allowed to wear a helmet decal of the country or territory's flag that represents their nationality or cultural heritage. A player is allowed to wear the flag of an international country or territory if they lived there for two years or more or if they have a relative who was born there (parent or grandparent). For more on this unique situation and players who will be participating, be sure to click here.
Zach Wilson likely to start against Steelers. After missing the first three weeks of the season with a knee injury, it appears that Wilson could be making his 2022 debut this week against Pittsburgh. The quarterback has been cleared to play, which was the last hurdle he had to overcome. Wilson tore his meniscus during the Jets' first preseason game back on Aug. 12. |
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