What’s going on here? US air freight managers and port operators reported sharp declines in bookings, as trade-reliant companies would rather go to the pub, have a nice cold pint, and wait for all of this tariff stuff to blow over. What does this mean? America’s busiest port for Chinese imports expects shipments to be down a third in the first working week of May. China’s businesses are waiting to unroll the packing tape, see, hoping that the two countries will negotiate lower tariff rates. That’s left US firms working through their existing inventories, meaning thousands of companies will need to restock by mid-May. Unless shipping numbers pick up by then, American shoppers could be looking at some seriously sparse shelves, as well as higher prices on the products that are available. And industries like trucking, logistics, and retail could be forced to lay off workers. Why should I care? For markets: Tariffs are just step one. China’s government is expected to announce financial support soon, designed to bolster the sectors and households hit hardest by tariffs. Stateside, the US president wants to use money made from the levies to lower taxes. He’s proposed reducing income tax for workers earning under $200,000 a year, cutting the corporate tax rate, and making tips and social security income tax-free. The bigger picture: You get an import, you get an import, everyone gets an import. Chinese manufacturers could theoretically ship their goods elsewhere – but they’d need to find an awful lot of shoppers to make up for American consumers’ appetites. China exported some $440 billion worth of goods to the US last year. So the “world’s factory” is expected to cast a wide net and send its stock all over – from Europe to Southeast Asia and Mexico. And that could cause a problem for local producers, who may be forced to lower their prices to compete. | 
