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| Friday, August 2, 2024 |
| It's Eagles Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (5th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 23.8 (23rd) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 23.3 (2nd) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Hired Kellen Moore as offensive coordinatorHired Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator |
| The identity of this Eagles offense will almost certainly remain centered around Jalen Hurts and the run game (especially with the addition of Saquon Barkley), but Kellen Moore may influence some subtle changes. For starters, I expect Philly to play significantly faster on offense. |
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| I also expect much more pre-snap motion. Philadelphia ranked 30th in motion rate when passing in 2023. Moore's Chargers ranked fifth. Moore's presence could have a profound impact on one or both of Philly's top receivers in this regard. |
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| I speculated on which wide receiver may better fit as Moore's motion man, and there have been reports out of camp that DeVonta Smith is being used more in the slot, but we likely won't have a clear picture until Week 1. Neither of Philly's top receivers saw the field in 2023 preseason action. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Jason Kelce retiredDrafted a guard in Round 5 and a center in Round 6 |
| Philly's dominant offensive line endured the loss of guard Isaac Seumalo in 2023 and will again be forced to adapt to life without one of its most important interior presences in 2024. Cam Jurgens, Philly's 2022 Round 3 selection, filled in for Seumalo at right guard in 2023 and is expected to fill the void left by Jason Kelce in 2024. Jurgens was solid, if unspectacular, in Seumalo's place after playing just three snaps at guard and 35 regular season snaps overall as a rookie. With Jurgens moving to center, the right guard position is expected to be filled by 2023 Round 3 selection, Tyler Steen. Like Jurgens, Steen barely played (71 snaps) as a rookie. |
| I'm expecting this to be one of the best lines in football again, but it's possible that the inexperience on the interior might become problematic for Philly. The Eagles led the NFL in yards before contact per rush, and Jason Kelce was one of the best performers at his position even in his age-35 season. |
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| Jalen Hurts is a black hole |
| This offense runs through Hurts, more than any other offense runs through any single player. |
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| This makes it difficult for an Eagles running back to matter much for Fantasy. Even with an awesome offensive line, the Eagles have not produced much through the RB position since Hurts took over as the starting QB. |
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| I want to get my hands on the passing game pieces from this offense. Maybe Saquon Barkley will completely change the way the opportunities in this offense are distributed. Austin Ekeler was sixth in expected Fantasy points per game under Kellen Moore in 2023 (in an obviously different team dynamic), and we've seen Moore lean heavily on Ezekiel Elliott in the red zone in the past. |
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| I just feel so confident in Philly's pass-game pieces. Even with modest projections for the Philly passing game (18th in yards and 23rd in touchdowns), A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all yield better price-adjusted return than Barkley for Fantasy purposes. |
| Brown's median PPR projection comes in just behind Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but I actually have him ranked ahead of both Jefferson and the Sun God. If Brown ends up being the WR who Moore uses primarily as the motion man, his upside could be unlocked in a massive way. No receiver has been more efficient on short routes than AJB . Brown only scored seven touchdowns and still finished as the WR5 in Fantasy. His median touchdown projection (7.8) is again low relative to the other top receivers, because I only have the Eagles projected for 23.8 passing scores. It would require an outlier type of season in the touchdown department for Brown to join CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill in the top tier of Fantasy receivers, but if there was any current WR to bet on being an outlier, from a talent perspective, he'd be my pick. |
| Speaking of touchdowns, Goedert has accounted for 22% of Philly's touchdowns when on the field during the Jalen Hurts era. The problem has been staying on the field. But when healthy, Goedert has been a red zone target that Hurts has locked in on. He accounted for a 33% red zone target share when on the field in 2023. |
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| Goedert's receiving efficiency dipped in a big way in his age-28 season, and I worry that age and injuries may be catching up to him. He projects to finish with the 13th most points at the TE position, just ahead of Dalton Schultz and Luke Musgrave and behind Pat Freiermuth and Brock Bowers. |
| The Philly pass-catcher who I am the most intrigued by is DeVonta Smith. He doesn't project as a massive value or anything. In fact, my median projections aren't bullish on Smith (relative to price) at all, which should give you an idea of just how overvalued Barkley appears in my projection, since he stands out as the worst value of any Philly player. For reference, Smith falls behind Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Diontae Johnson, Tee Higgins, Tank Dell, Cooper Kupp, and Stefon Diggs and ahead of Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Terry McLaurin, and Chris Godwin. A median projection can only account for so much change, though. Smith's 2023 data is not particularly encouraging. I'm intrigued by the potential change that a median projection cannot account for as Philly's offense evolves under Kellen Moore's guidance. |
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| Are we buying the DeVonta Smith hype? |
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| Smith has all of the tools. His career arc has felt a bit disappointing recently, but I still feel extremely excited about the long-term outlook for Smith as a player. |
| Matt Harmon ranked the WR prospects that he has evaluated (pre-draft) across the 2021-24 seasons on ReceptionPerception.com, and Smith ranks as the WR5 on that list ahead of the likes of Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Malik Nabers, and a bunch of other excellent receivers. Smith is an elite prospect who immediately looked the part as a rookie but has taken a back seat to A.J. Brown over the past two seasons. |
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| It's insane that Brown has posted a nearly identical target rate to the Sun God. St. Brown operates as the clear focal point of his offense. With the exception of Hill, who exists in a world of his own, everyone listed in the vicinity that Brown falls in from a target rate perspective has had very little top-end target competition. That has not been the case for Brown and Smith, the closest we have to a WR duo who can rival Miami's from a talent standpoint. Prior to his trade to Philadelphia, Brown appeared on track to be the NFL's next alpha target hog with target shares above 30% being accessible on a yearly basis. That's the type of target competition that Smith has faced in the early stages of his career. |
| Smith's target per route run rate hit a career-low in his third season, down from 22.6% to 18.8%. He remained wildly efficient with those targets, increasing his catch rate even while his average route depth and depth of target both increased dramatically. That's highly unusual. Typically, as the depth of targets increase, catch rates decrease. Smith posted a career-best reception rate and yard per target rate in his third season, it just became less of a priority for the Philadelphia offense to target him. |
| That may change in 2024. The Eagles signaled a clear desire to move the offense in a different direction. As outlined in the coaching changes section, Kellen Moore may be just the person suited to unlock Smith's skill set. |
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| To this point, Smith has mostly been asked to line up and win in uncreative ways. He's talented enough to do just that, as evidenced by his near league-best efficiency on 'go route' targets. |
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| Smith is a stud. He's just been frustrating for Fantasy because we've had no idea what type of usage to expect. Smith had five or fewer targets in half of his games in 2023! |
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| When it comes to drafting Smith for Fantasy, he falls into the same range as Malik Nabers, George Pickens, D.J. Moore, and Zay Flowers in my head. The range of outcomes for those receivers is wide, and Smith arguably has the highest ceiling of the bunch. I'm drafting Nabers comfortably ahead of him because I feel much more confident in his median target and PPR projection. It's a true toss-up between the other four, I have Smith below Pickens and above Moore and Flowers. |
| Some wide receivers who I also rank in the same range but are different archetypes in my head are Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf, Christian Kirk, and Diontae Johnson. I view all of those receivers as bringing a safer median projection than Smith. The only ones who I have ranked behind Smith are Kirk and Johnson. |
| Okay, let's talk about Saquon |
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| Over the past five seasons, the league average target per route run rate at the RB position is 18.9%. The average for running backs playing in offenses with Kellen Moore at OC was 17.5%. The average for running backs with Jalen Hurts at QB was 15.9%. The average for Eagles running backs not named Kenneth Gainwell was 14.5%. Again, the league average was 18.9%. That's a significant deviation. D'Andre Swift had a 16% target share in healthy games during his time with Detroit. His rate in Philly was 10.2%. That's a significant deviation! |
| You might think of Barkley as a dual-threat back because of his rookie season, but he hasn't been a productive receiving back in a long time. Barkley's highest target total since his 121-target rookie season is 76. He ranked 21st among 35 qualified running backs in yards per route run in 2023. |
| All of the target rates that I just fed you about A.J. Brown also matter for Saquon's projection. He's no longer on an offense with Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton as the top weapons. |
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| I have Barkley projected for 43.4 targets. That's just not going to get it done! People are drafting this guy in the first round! |
| The following excerpt is from a June newsletter titled "The Importance of RB Targets & Receptions." |
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| Not all touches are created equal. I have Barkley projected for 257 rush attempts. Only Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson project for more. It just doesn't matter! He's projected for the 12th-most PPR points. I have Isiah Pacheco projected for more points and targets per game than Barkley. You could legitimately justify drafting Pacheco ahead of Barkley if not concerned with Pacheco's injury risk. I'm happy to draft any of Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Taylor, or De'Von Achane before Barkley. I even projected Hurts for only 44% of Philly's rushing touchdowns, and still, this is where Barkley falls in my projections. Hurts accounted for 68% of Philly's rushing touchdowns in 2023. He's accounted for 53% of Philly's rushing touchdowns in healthy games over the past three seasons. I'm projecting Saquon to impact Hurts in a way that we've never seen, and still, he's the RB12 in my projections. |
| One last Eagles note -- rookie WR Johnny Wilson is reportedly getting first-team reps alongside Brown and Smith. |
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| Wilson was the most productive "X" receiver of any incoming 2024 rookie when facing press coverage, on a yard per route run basis. His career at Florida State offers some really interesting data points. |
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| He wasn't selected until Round 6, but Wilson is a 6-foot-6 and 240-pound WR who dominated target shares and produced at a crazy-efficient clip. Could be fun! |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview until August 8! Monday, we will be covering the Green Bay Packers. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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