Economy.com Daily Update: April 2, 2020

Today's Economy

COVID-19 will only have a modest impact on last month's job numbers.

Additional data and a methodological tweak move New York City to the top.

The U.K.'s universal credit claims skyrocketed in the final two weeks of March.

The economy has escaped recession since 1999, but it won't withstand the coronavirus pandemic.

Commentary

New filings totaled 6.648 million in the week ended March 28.

We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar.

The CP markets shouldn't batter the economy too much, as long as financial markets stay afloat.

An accurate forecast of the spread and duration of the disease is a critical component for estimating the economic impact of the virus.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Challenger Report
Mar. 2020: 222,288
Job cuts soared in March because of the COVID-19 outbreak, with total job cuts falling just short of 225,000.

United States
Jobless Claims
March 28: 6,648,000
The sheer scale of the disruption to the U.S. labor market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is becoming evident in the jobless claims data.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Feb. 2020: -C$ 0.98 bil
Canada's merchandise exports rose 0.5% in February while imports were down 0.8%.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Feb. 2020: -$39.9 bil
The U.S. nominal trade deficit narrowed from $45.3 billion in January to $39.9 billion in February.

United States
ISM - NY Report
Mar. 2020: 12.9
It remains too soon to see the impact of COVID-19 in most of the economic data, but the March ISM-New York Report on Business is one more soft data indicator that panic may be setting in.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Feb. 2020: 0.0%
U.S. manufacturing will contract in the first half of this year because of supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19, state closures of nonessential businesses, and Boeing’s decision to halt production of the 737 MAX.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
March 27: 5.14
Record fiscal and monetary stimulus helped to stabilize financial markets last week.

United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Mar. 2020: 10.7 mil, SAAR
As expected, U.S. unit vehicle sales dropped precipitously in March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent lockdowns.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
March 27: -19 bil cubic feet
The decline in natural gas stocks was slightly smaller than analyst expectations, but this report will have very little effect on gas prices due to overwhelming concerns surrounding COVID-19.

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2020: US$4.71 bil
Brazil’s trade balance grew its surplus in March, reaching $4.71 billion following a surplus of $3.10 billion in February.

Australia
Retail Sales
Feb. 2020: