Economy.com Daily Update: April 27, 2018

Today's Economy

U.S. GDP growth came in better than expected and the tight labor market is boosting wages.

U.K. growth slowed sharply in Q1, to its lowest in five years.

The Fed may begin to drop hints that it could squeeze in a fourth rate hike this year.

The model has had better days.

Commentary

March’s improved data dump is welcome in an otherwise slow quarter for Japan.

Coming data will show inflation rebounding in the euro zone at the start of the current quarter.

Chinese manufacturing is cruising along; Asia's exports are generally upbeat.

Brazil and Chile will report industrial moderation.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Monetary Policy
Apr. 2018: ¥80 tril.
The Bank of Japan remains firmly on the sidelines, and talks of monetary tightening remain well off the mark.

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Apr. 2018: 7.25%
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation opted to hold its policy rate at 7.25% at the bank’s April 27 meeting, maintaining the same rate it set just over a month ago.

France
GDP
2018Q1: 0.3%
The early-year slowdown in the French economy was confirmed.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Mar. 2018: 0.1%
French household consumption rose by only 0.1% m/m in March, but this has to be seen in the context of a sharp 2.5% increase in February.

Spain
Retail Sales
Mar. 2018: 0.4%
Retail sales added 0.4% m/m in March, a touch above our forecast of a 0.3% gain and accelerating from 0.2% in February.

Germany
Unemployment
Apr. 2018: 5.3%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 5.3% in April after it fell to this record low in March.

United Kingdom
GDP Production Breakdown
2018Q1: 1.2%
There is no way to sugarcoat the U.K.’s first quarter GDP figures: They are terrible.

Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2018Q1: 3%
Taiwan’s economy expanded 3% y/y in the first quarter, down from 3.3% in the prior quarter, according to its advance estimate.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Apr. 2018: 112.7
The euro zone's economic confidence indicator stabilized in April at 112.7 after going sideways for three consecutive months.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Mar. 2018: 13.1%
Brazil’s unemployment increased in March, still affected by seasonality.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2018Q1: 0.8%
The tight labor market is putting upward pressure on wage growth, and this could be enough to cause the Federal Reserve to alter its plans for a total of three to four rate hikes this year.

United States
GDP
2018Q1: 2.3%
U.S.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Mar. 2018: US$ 1,918mil
Mexico's trade account reported a positive result in March, after a surplus in the previous months.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Apr. 2018: 98.8
Consumer sentiment lost 2.6 points in the final April report from the University of Michigan, slipping to 98.8, a three-month low.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
April 20: 150.4
The U.S. economy remains in good health and prospects are good for the quarters ahead.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Apr. 2018: 4.25%
Colombia’s central bank eased monetary conditions in April in an effort to stimulate domestic demand in an environment of declining inflation.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Mar. 2018: 1.2%
Argentina's industrial production advanced in March, although at a more moderate pace.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Mar. 2018: 4.5%
Agricultural prices increased 4.5% in March thanks to increases in both the crop production and livestock production indexes.