Economy.com Daily Update: April 28, 2025

Today's Economy

The U.S. economic calendar is jam-packed this week.

Amid a global trade war, Central American economies have key advantages that could work in their favor.

We review the many global ramifications of emerging U.S. tariff policy.

The Moody's Analytics economic team wins an award for forecast accuracy.

Commentary

Consumer and manufacturing sentiment is nearing record lows.

While economic data mostly reflect the period before “Liberation Day” upheaval, there are growing indications that business activity is grinding to a halt.

Following a robust 228,000 job gain in March, we expect a much softer increase in April.

Demand for Mexican products increased in March in anticipation of U.S. tariffs.

Today's Economic Indicators

Spain
Retail Sales
Mar. 2025: -0.2% m/m
In March, Spain's retail sales, adjusted for seasonal and calendar variations, fell 0.2% compared with the previous month, following a 1.3% increase in February.

Spain
Unemployment
2025Q1: 11.4%
Spain’s unemployment rate rose to 11.4% in the first quarter of 2025, a 0.75-percentage point increase from the previous quarter.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2025: -HKD45.4 bil
Hong Kong’s merchandise trade deficit widened to HKD45.4 billion in March from HKD36.3 billion the prior month.

France
Job Seekers
Mar. 2025: 3.19 mil
In March, the number of job seekers in France decreased by 28,500 to 3.19 million.

Mexico
Employment Situation
Mar. 2025: 2.2% Unemployment
Mexico’s unemployment declined in March for a second consecutive month, despite the economy’s slowness.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Mar. 2025: US$3,442.5 mil
The country’s trade balance remained in positive territory in March as exports increased and imports moderated.

India
Industrial Production
Mar. 2025: 3.0% y/y
India’s industrial production rose 3% over the year in March, up a touch from 2.9% in February.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
April 25: 7.8
Global business confidence remains weak in the wake of so-called “Liberation Day” in early April when President Trump announced broad-based tariff increases on U.S. trading partners.

United States
Housing Vacancies & Homeownership
2025Q1: 65.1%
The U.S. homeownership rate inched down from 65.7% to 65.1% in the first quarter of 2025.

United States
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Apr. 2025: -35.8
Although Texas factory production rose at a moderate pace, indicators of the near-term outlook fell sharply.