| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Fed Can't Declare Victory on Inflation Yet Inflation is generally in line with the central bank's target, but there is more work to be done. Europe Daily Briefing: Did Germany Hit a Brick Wall in the First Quarter? Hard data point to a sharp slowdown in growth Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Chinese Manufacturing Sentiment Dips Despite a downtick in PMIs, industrial production is expected to grow further. Flatter Base Metals Prices Reflect Less-Vibrant Chinese Economy Year-to-date declines are noted in China's bond yields and stock prices. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
New Technologies Unlikely to Spur 1990s-Like Growth The absence of a sustained rise in the U.S. potential growth rate increases the odds of overheating. The North Korea Threat Abates The April summit between the North and South is progress, but be skeptical. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 27, 2018 We look for solid job growth, firming in core PCE deflator, and no changes by the Fed. Macro Roundup: BoJ Sidelined, but Growth Engine Is Stable March’s improved data dump is welcome in an otherwise slow quarter for Japan. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
Semiconductor Billings
Mar. 2018: 0.7%
The first quarter ended on a high note. Germany
Retail Sales
Mar. 2018: -0.6%
German retail sales ended the first quarter on a weak footing. Thailand
Private Consumption
Mar. 2018: 2.6%
Thai private consumption rose 2.6% y/y, the same as the prior month but down from the 4.7% gain in January. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2018: US$3 bil
Thailand’s monthly trade surplus rose to US$3 billion in March, after rising to US$2.3 billion in February. Chile
Employment
Mar. 2018: 6.9%
The national unemployment rate averaged 6.9% in the January-March rolling quarter, up from 6.6% a year earlier. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Mar. 2018: -2.4%
Chile’s manufacturing industry decelerated in March because of the seasonality of Easter. United States
Black Knight Home Price Index
Feb. 2018:
United States
Personal Income
Mar. 2018: 0.3%
Nominal personal income rose by 0.3% in March, similar to the downwardly revised 0.3% gain in February but less than the consensus forecast for a 0.4% gain. United States
PCE Deflator
Mar. 2018: 0%
U.S. inflationary pressures are developing but they are not an immediate concern. United States
Personal Spending
Mar. 2018: 0.4%
Real consumer spending ended a weak first quarter on a stronger note as consumers begin to take advantage of higher disposable income. Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Mar. 2018: 0.8%
The Industrial Product Price Index increased by 0.8% in March, primarily due to higher prices for energy and petroleum products. World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
April 27: 40.7
Global businesses remain upbeat, as they have all year. United States
Pending Home Sales
Mar. 2018: 107.6
The pending home sales index advanced 0.4% to 107.6 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, adding slightly to February’s larger gain. United States
Risk of Recession
Mar. 2018: 12%
The probability that the U.S. will be in recession in six months increased in March but remains low. United States
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Apr. 2018: 21.8
Manufacturing conditions remain solid in Texas, likely supported by higher energy prices and solid global GDP growth. South Korea
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2018:
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