Economy.com Daily Update: April 30, 2021

Today's Economy

Nominal personal income jumped 21.1% in March, but only 1.4% excluding transfer payments.

Number of high-yield rating upgrades outnumber downgrades in the first quarter.

Our new measure was stable last week but has been quickening.

The president proposes a $1.8 trillion plan for workers, families and children.

Commentary

Factory production in Brazil likely extended its winning streak on the back of export-oriented industries.

We expect industrial production picked up again in March in Germany, France and Spain.

China's trade surplus is expected to ease over the year.

GDP is forecast at 4% in 2021, but the slow pace of vaccinations is a risk.

Today's Economic Indicators

Netherlands
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021: 7.2%
Retail sales in the Netherlands rebounded in March despite the lockdown measures being extended through April.

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Apr. 2021: 34.7
Japan's consumer confidence dipped in April to 34.7, down 1.4 points from the previous month.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Mar. 2021: -1.1%
French household consumption expenditure on goods decreased markedly in March, coming in at -1.1%.

Spain
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021: 3.5% m/m
Spain’s retail sales increased by 3.5% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms in March.

Switzerland
Retail Sales
Mar. 2021: 22.6%
Real, calendar-adjusted retail sales leapt by 22.6% y/y in March, a remarkable rebound from February’s 6.6% drop.

Italy
Unemployment
Mar. 2021: 10.1%
Italy's employment situation improved slightly in March, as employment grew by 34,000 m/m while joblessness and inactivity declined.

Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2021Q1: 8.2% y/y
Taiwan’s economy is humming.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Mar. 2021: US$3.4 bil
Thailand's trade balance widened in March, as the trade surplus increased to $3.4 billion.

Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2021Q1: -0.6%
According to preliminary estimates, GDP contracted by 0.6% q/q in the first three months of 2021.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2021: 1.6%
According to the preliminary estimate, euro zone consumer price inflation accelerated to 1.6% y/y in April from 1.3% in March.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Mar. 2021: 8.1%
The euro zone's unemployment rate decreased to 8.1% in March, down from a downwardly revised 8.2% in February.

Portugal
Industrial Production
Mar. 2021: 5.0%
Portuguese industrial production posted some impressive yearly figures in March, with total output increasing by 5% after February’s 2.8% drop.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Feb. 2021: 14.4%
Unemployment continued to increase in February as the epidemic took a heavier toll on employment.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Mar. 2021: 1.6%
Producer prices continued their steady climb higher in March.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Feb. 2021: 0.4%
Output growth slowed in February but was still positive.

Chile
Employment
Mar. 2021: 10.4%
Chile's national unemployment rate averaged 10.4% in the January-March rolling quarter, down from a 2020 peak of 13.1%, but still up from 8.2% a year earlier.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2021Q1: 0.9% q/q
The labor market rebounded more sharply in the first quarter, and the impact on employment costs was clear.

United States
Personal Income
Mar. 2021: 21.1% m/m
Our forecast called for a record-breaking increase in personal income, and March’s data did not disappoint.

United States
PCE Deflator
Mar. 2021: 0.5% m/m
The U.S. is in the midst of a transitory acceleration in inflation.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Mar. 2021: 3.6% m/m
Many factors came together to lift spending in March.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
April 28: 87.9
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index came in at 87.9 this week.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Mar. 2021: 3.89% y/y
As expected, national manufactures reported a rebound in March despite the increase in COVID-19 infections.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Mar. 2021: 18.5% y/y
Retail sales in Chile declined in March after a brief recovery in February as mobility restrictions continued to be extended.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Apr. 2021: 88.3
U.S. consumer sentiment continued to improve in April as vaccinations continued, cash was abundant, and economic fundamentals were mostly positive.

Belgium
Unemployment
Mar. 2021: 5.8%
Belgium’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% in March.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Apr. 2021: 1.75%
Colombia’s central bank left the reference interest rate unchanged at 1.75% after April’s regular meeting.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Mar. 2021: 2.6% m/m
The rally in agricultural prices strengthened in March.

South Korea
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2021: