Economy.com Daily Update: August 15, 2019

Today's Economy

On Wednesday, the Baa industrial yield closed at 4.08%.

Manufacturing has had a poor run, but the economy can still move forward.

We expect growth close to zero for 2019.

July retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.7%.

Commentary

Darkening global outlook poses biggest risk.

Places that rely on exports to China, particularly crops and livestock, are most at risk.

The escalating trade war is currently the biggest risk to the U.S. economy.

The economy is facing a pronounced slowdown given the imposition of fiscal austerity measures.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2019Q1: 2.8%
The global economy has grown at a steady clip over the past couple of quarters, but trade tensions between the U.S. and some of its trading partners will continue to be a drag.

United Kingdom
Retail Sales
Jul. 2019: 3.3%
U.K. retail sales rose by 3.3% y/y in July, below the 3.8% jump in June but beating the consensus for a sharper deceleration.

Canada
ADP Canada National Employment Report
Jul. 2019: 73,706
Canada's labor market is sending strong signals.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Jun. 2019: -7.1%
Sales of new motor vehicles have taken a turn for the worse.

United States
Jobless Claims
August 10: 220,000
Although jobless claims increased in the week ended August 10, they remain quite low.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Aug. 2019: 4.8
The August reading of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions index was little changed, inching up from 4.3 to 4.8.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Aug. 2019: 16.8
The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook survey worsened in August, though it still points to growing manufacturing activity.

United States
Productivity and Costs
2019Q2: 2.3%
U.S. productivity increased 2.3% in the second quarter, close to our expectations but stronger than the consensus.

United States
Retail Sales
Jul. 2019: 0.7%
Retail sales growth accelerated more than expected in July.

Peru
Unemployment
Jul. 2019: 6.0%
The job market in metropolitan Lima turned in a surprisingly strong showing in the last three months ended in July.

United States
Industrial Production
Jul. 2019: -0.2%
Industrial production fell 0.2% in July, downshifting after two consecutive monthly gains.

Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Jul. 2019: 2.8%
Russian industrial production growth retreated to 2.8% in July from 3.3% in June.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Jun. 2019: 0.0%
Stockpile growth took a breather in June.

United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
Aug. 2019: 66
Homebuilder sentiment rose 1 basis point to 66 in August.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
August 09: -1.23
Financial market stress edged higher in the week ended August 9 as escalating trade tensions and slowing global growth weighed on markets.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
August 09: 49 bil cubic feet
Natural gas inventories increased by 49 billion cubic feet in the week ending August 9, falling short of expectations for a 55-bcf build.

Colombia
GDP
2019Q2: 3.0%
The Colombian economy expanded at a steady pace in the second quarter, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and solid domestic demand growth.

Singapore
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2019:

Mexico
Monetary Policy
Aug. 2019: 8.0%
Mexico’s central bank eased monetary conditions in August, despite resilient underlying inflation.

Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2019: 54.4%
The Argentina statistics office’s national consumer price index increased 2.2% in July, down from a 2.7% gain in the previous month and a 3.1% advance a year earlier.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Jun. 2019: $99.1 bil
Net long-term capital flows increased for the third straight month in June.