Economy.com Daily Update: August 7, 2020

Today's Economy

Barring a deal between the House and Senate, the U.S. could face a double-dip recession.

The U.S. economy gained nearly 1.8 million jobs in July, but uncertainty still clouds the outlook

It is unclear what data the Trump administration is relying to claim that aluminum imports hurt U.S. producers.

The exemption will not have material impact on overall financing.

Commentary

The pace of economic contraction slows in Chile; Mexico’s central bank will likely ease further.

We expect that U.K. GDP fell by around 20% q/q in the three months to June, the worst slump on record.

New wave of COVID-19 infections clouds Australia's economic prospects.

Real-time data reveal the breadth and persistence of flight from cities.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
Industrial Production
Jun. 2020: 12.7%
French headline industrial production continued its rebound in June, rising 12.7% m/m after a 19.9% increase in May.

Spain
Industrial Production
Jun. 2020: 14.0%
Spain’s industrial production increased 14% in June.

Germany
Industrial Production
Jun. 2020: 8.9%
Headline calendar and seasonally adjusted industrial production climbed higher in June, adding 8.9% m/m to a downwardly revised 7.4% increase in May.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2020: 3.62%
Mexico’s inflation continued to move upward in July, as core prices continued to realign.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2020: 2.31%
Brazil’s inflation continued to gradually move upward in July as more prices started to realign.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2020: 2.5%
Chile’s inflation moderated again in July as the economy remains weak and in recession.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Jul. 2020: 10.9%
The labor market continued to heal in July, though the speed of the recovery slowed.

United States
Employment Situation
Jul. 2020: 1,763,000
Payroll employment increased slightly above the consensus, adding 1.763 million jobs.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2020: US$1,173.2 mil
Chile’s foreign trade surplus ticked down in July, coming in at $1.17 billion, above the Moody’s Analytics forecast and once again on the back of falling imports as the COVID-19 outbreak spread through the country, lowering demand for imported goods.

Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
Jul. 2020: 68.5
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index increased from 58.2 in June to 68.5 in July.

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Jun. 2020: -1.4%
Wholesale inventories decreased 1.4% in June, less than the consensus expectations of a 2% decline.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Jun. 2020: $8.9 bil
Consumer credit expanded in June by $8.9 billion.