Economy.com Daily Update: December 11, 2019

Today's Economy

The FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.5% to 1.75%.

The successor pact to NAFTA is finally primed to pass; expect little change.

The new pact does little more than extend the current framework for trade and investment put in place by NAFTA.

The Tories' lead has narrowed, and we cannot rule out a hung Parliament.

Commentary

As consumers keep faith in the labor market, they are opening their wallets to major purchases.

The region will leave stagnation behind.

With little else to pick up the slack, consumer spending must not falter.

We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its target range for the fed funds rate unchanged.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Nov. 2019: 0.3%
Our estimate of the global consumer price index rose 0.3% in November, compared with the 0.4% gain in October and 0.2% increase in September.

Brazil
Retail Sales Index
Oct. 2019: 4.2%
Brazil’s retail consumption rebounded in October as the economy continued to recover and employment advanced.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
December 06: 3.8%
Mortgage applications rose 3.8% over the week of December 6, with the refinance index rising while the purchase index ticked down.

Canada
Industrial Capacity Utilization
2019Q3: 81.7%
Industrial capacity utilization in Canada lost ground in the third quarter.

United States
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2019: 0.3%
The gains in consumer prices over the past couple of months won’t deter the Federal Reserve from sitting tight for the foreseeable future.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
December 06: 113.7
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from 122.4 to 113.7 in the week ended December 6.

United States
Quarterly Services Survey
2019Q3:
The Quarterly Services Survey data indicate that the U.S. service sector remains in good health.

United States
Oil Inventories
December 06: 447.9 mil barrels
An unexpected build in crude oil inventories will apply downward pressure on oil prices.

United States
FOMC Monetary Policy
Dec. 2019: 1.50 to 1.75%
After cutting the target range for the fed funds rate by a cumulative of 75 basis points this year, the Federal Open Market Committee took the December meeting off.

United States
Treasury Budget
Nov. 2019: -$208.8 bil
The U.S. government has incurred a cumulative budget deficit of $343.3 billion for the first two months of fiscal 2020, compared with $305.4 billion over the same period last fiscal year.

Brazil
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2019:

Japan
Machinery Orders
Oct. 2019: