Economy.com Daily Update: December 15, 2016

Today's Economy

Manufacturing is clearly firming, but a sudden surge in production is unlikely.

Fourth quarter GDP growth is tracking 1.5% and risks remain roughly balanced.

Credit growth remains strong in China due to household borrowing.

The central bank wavers on running a high-pressure economy and expects more rate hikes in 2017.

Commentary

Japan's domestic economy will continue its struggles despite easing deflation pressures.

Quarterly U.S. data say many areas were hit harder than monthly figures suggest.

Cyclical recovery will continue through 2017, which will help reform efforts.

Internal and external political struggles are weighing on spending.

Today's Economic Indicators

Indonesia
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2016: 4.75%
Bank Indonesia’s easing cycle is over for now after rate cuts totaling 150 basis points through 2016. The central bank kept its policy reverse repo rate unchanged at 4.75% in December.

Peru
Unemployment
Nov. 2016: 5.8%
The jobless rate in the Lima metropolitan area fell in the three months ending in November, shaving 0.4 percentage point to rest at 5.8%.

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2016: US$0.84 bil
The decline in Indonesia's export has likely troughed, as exports are rebounding sharply.

United Kingdom
Retail Sales
Nov. 2016: 5.9%
U.K. retail sales continued their strong expansion in November despite the somewhat uncertain outlook.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Dec. 2016: 0.25%
The Bank of England kept its policy stance unchanged in December, with the flagship refinancing rate remaining at the record low of 0.25% and its target for asset purchases at £435 billion.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Oct. 2016: -0.8%
Manufacturing sales fell 0.8% in October, with primary metals, petroleum and coal products, and machinery manufacturing recording the largest declines.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Dec. 2016: 9.0
New York's manufacturers are gaining momentum.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Dec. 2016: 21.5
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey was a pleasant sight in December.

United States
Current Account
2016Q3: -$113.0 bil
The U.S. current account improved in the third quarter, but gains were smaller than expected.

United States
Jobless Claims
December 10: 254,000
The U.S. labor market continues to do well, but the economy isn’t at full employment yet.

United States
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2016: 0.2%
U.S. inflation pressures are gradually developing but not enough to suggest that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve.

Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Nov. 2016: 2.7%
November industrial production foiled all expectations with a huge rebound, adding 2.7% in both year-ago and month-ago terms.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
December 09: -1.180
The St.

United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
Dec. 2016: 70
Homebuilder sentiment increased to 70 in December, indicating favorable conditions for housing market growth going into 2017.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
December 09: -147 bil cubic feet
The drawdown in natural gas inventories was larger than analysts expected, which will put upward pressure on prices.

China
Foreign Direct Investment
Nov. 2016:

Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2016: 1.6%
The statistics office’s new consumer price index, which covers the Buenos Aires metro area, increased 1.6% in November, after 2.4% in the previous month.

Mexico
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2016: 5.75%
The Central Bank of Mexico tightened monetary conditions again in December as currency volatility persisted.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Oct. 2016: $9.4 bil
Net long-term capital flows were positive for the third time in four months in October.

United States
SEMI Book-to-Bill Ratio
Nov. 2016:

Singapore
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2016: