Economy.com Daily Update: December 7, 2022

Today's Economy

The November data may overstate the strength of the job market because of severance pay.

Next year’s regional outlook appears cloudy.

German energy production drops during October.

Australian GDP jumped 0.6% q/q in the September quarter.

Commentary

With a split Congress, we've added a debt limit breach to the U.S. risks.

The cost of vehicles is declining, and housing may soon decrease.

The ECB is likely to shift down in December, but this is not heralding an end to tightening.

The Fed will likely hike rates by 50 basis points despite the stronger-than-expected jobs report.

Today's Economic Indicators

Thailand
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2022: 5.5% y/y
Thailand's inflation eased to 5.5% y/y in November from 6% in the previous month.

Switzerland
Unemployment rate
Nov. 2022: 2.0%
Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked down to 2% in November from 2.1% in October, making for the lowest rate in decades.

Taiwan (China)
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2022: US$3.43 bil
Taiwan's trade surplus was $3.4 billion in November, up marginally from October.

Sweden
Industrial Production
Oct. 2022: -1.3% m/m
Sweden’s industrial production recoiled by 1.3% m/m in October, nearly cancelling out September’s upwardly revised 1.7% rise.

Norway
Industrial Production
Oct. 2022: -1.2% m/m
Norwegian industrial production declined 1.2% m/m in October from September.

Germany
Industrial Production
Oct. 2022: -0.1% m/m
In October, German industrial production fell 0.1% from the previous month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a rise of 1.1% in September—an upward revision from the initial estimate of 0.6%.

Italy
Retail Sales
Oct. 2022: -0.4% m/m
Italy’s month-on-month retail sales ticked down by 0.4% in October, offsetting September’s increase, as food and nonfood spending fell by 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.

Euro Zone
GDP
2022Q3: 0.3% q/q
Final estimates report that the euro zone’s third-quarter GDP grew by 0.3% q/q , slowing down from a 0.8% increase in the second.

Ireland
Industrial Production
Oct. 2022: -10.7% m/m
Irish industrial production slumped by 10.7% month over month in October after revised growth of 7.1% in September.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2022: 13.34% y/y
Chile’s annual inflation unexpectedly went up in November, after two months of decline, while monetary conditions remain in restrictive territory.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2022: US$285.2 mil
Chile recorded a second consecutive trade surplus in December, but with both exports and imports trending lower.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
December 02: -1.9%
The U.S. housing market is quickly cooling as higher mortgage rates and low housing affordability price out many would-be buyers.

United States
Productivity and Costs
2022Q3: 0.8%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. productivity growth in the third quarter looks stronger than previously estimated.

Canada
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2022: 4.25%
The Bank of Canada's contrasting moves on the overnight rate and its forward guidance demonstrate policymakers' increasing peril.

United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
December 04:

United States
Oil Inventories
December 02: 413.9 mil barrels
A larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories will put some upward pressure on oil prices.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Oct. 2022: 3.5% y/y
Industrial output grew 3.5% year on year in October (NSA) after 4.3% in the previous month.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Oct. 2022: $27.1 bil
The stock of consumer credit outstanding expanded by $27.1 billion in October, falling just short of consensus expectations for a $28.3 billion addition but ahead of the Moody’s Analytics forecast for a $22.35 billion gain.

Brazil
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2022: 13.75%
The Central Bank of Brazil continued to extend the monetary pause in December as inflation continued to decline into single-digit territory.

Japan
GDP
2022Q3:

Australia
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2022: