Economy.com Daily Update: February 18, 2022

Today's Economy

The composition of existing-home sales is shifting, but a lack of flips eases our concerns.

Forward-looking indicators point toward less stress in U.S. supply chains.

The latest wholesale trade report highlights the sector's 2021 performance.

The anticipated GST hike will happen in two steps in 2023 and 2024.

Commentary

Omicron’s grip on the economy will leave a mark on first-quarter GDP growth.

Argentina, Brazil and Colombia show positive gains over their regional peers.

The final euro zone CPI figures for January should confirm that inflation accelerated to 5.1% y/y from 5% in December.

U.K. inflation is at a 30-year high and is expected to climb further.

Today's Economic Indicators

Switzerland
Industrial Production
2021Q4: 8% y/y
Swiss industrial production held steady in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Finland
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2022: 4.4% y/y
Finland’s annual inflation rate climbed higher in January, accelerating to 4.4% y/y from 3.5% in December.

United Kingdom
Retail Sales
Jan. 2022: 1.9% m/m
U.K. retail sales rose by a sharp 1.9% m/m in January, in line with our forecast but defying market expectations of a smaller increase.

France
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2022: 2.9% y/y
France’s headline inflation rate saw a slight uptick in January, posting 2.9% year-on-year growth after a 2.8% reading in December.

Sweden
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2022: 3.7% y/y
Sweden’s headline inflation rate slowed to 3.7% y/y in January from 3.9% in December.

Canada
New Housing Price Index
Jan. 2022: 11.8% y/y
The new-home price index was up 11.8% from a year earlier in January.

Canada
Retail Trade
Dec. 2021: -1.8% m/m
Retail sales took a hit in December as a spike in the Omicron variant and the strict lockdown measures that followed weighed heavily on demand-side factors.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
February 16: 94.2
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index popped this week.

United States
Existing-Home Sales
Jan. 2022: 6.5 mil, SAAR
Existing-home sales increased 6.7% in January to 6.5 million units annualized, recouping December’s losses and rising to their highest level since January 2021.

United States
Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales)
2021Q4: $218.5 bil
On a seasonally adjusted basis, internet sales in the fourth quarter increased 1.7% from the third quarter.

United States
Quarterly Services Survey
2021Q4:
U.S. service industries saw solid revenue growth in the fourth quarter but the Omicron variant of COVID-19 likely dinged it early this year.

United States
Conference Board Leading Indicators
Jan. 2022: -0.3%
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ticked down in January, bucking expectations of a 0.2% increase.