| Today's Economy
Late January’s FOMC Minutes Overstated Liveliness of Consumer Spending and Manufacturing December 2018’s seasonally adjusted retail sales sank 1.2% from November’s pace. Europe Daily Briefing: More Cheer for the U.K. Economy We caution nonetheless against putting too much weight into the CBI new orders headline. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Japanese Exports Limp Into 2019 The Lunar New Year may have exacerbated the export slump in January. High-Yield Spreads Will Widen If Downgrades Double Upgrades Through 2019’s Second Quarter Not since the 2.13:1 ratio of 2016’s final quarter have high-yield downgrades at least doubled upgrades for an entire calendar quarter. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Fed Scenario Highlights Cross-Border Synchronicity Under the hypothetical severe stress test, if the U.S. economy declined, Mexico's would sink more profoundly. U.S. Macro Outlook: Holding It Together for Now The economic expansion feels surprisingly tenuous. U.S. Chartbook: Help Still Wanted The gap between job openings and hires widened, and a few lousy economic reports don't mean an end of the expansion. Helping U.S. Families and the Economy The Universal Child Care and Early Learning Act would assist households with working parents.
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Today's Economic Indicators
Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Jan. 2019: 1.6%
Retail sales growth printed at a modest 1.6% y/y in January, down from 2.3% in December. Russian Federation
Unemployment
Jan. 2019: 4.9%
The unemployment rate in Russia gained 0.1 percentage point in January, coming in at 4.9%, the highest reading since April. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
February 15: 3.6%
The mortgage market expanded in the week ended February 15, with the top-line market index increasing 3.6%. The four-week moving averages for purchases and refinances were mixed, however. United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
February 15:
United States
FOMC Minutes
Jan. 2019:
The minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting provided a little more color on the reasons for the significant and sudden dovish shift by the central bank, but the bigger news is the support for ending the balance sheet runoff this year. United States
Agricultural Prices
Dec. 2018: 1.8%
The agricultural prices received index rose 1.8% from November to December thanks to an increase in the crop production index. Australia
Employment Situation
Jan. 2019:
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