Economy.com Daily Update: February 25, 2022

Today's Economy

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue joins with the U.S. in sanctions against Russia.

Canada produces many of the same commodities as Russia, potentially improving Canada's trade balance.

Real consumer spending and a bigger drag from inventories have Q1 GDP south of 1%.

Preliminary estimates point to a quick acceleration in February.

Commentary

As businesses deal with supply-chain issues, smaller firms’ B2B spending is outpacing their larger counterparts.

Retail sales jump in Argentina and Mexico, while unemployment falls in Brazil.

Inflation likely accelerated in January in the euro zone.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis really complicates the story.

Today's Economic Indicators

Singapore
Industrial Production
Jan. 2022: 2.0% y/y
Singapore’s industrial output rose by 2% y/y in January, a marked slowdown from the double-digit increase for most of 2021.

Denmark
Retail Sales
Jan. 2022: 4.2% m/m
Retail sales have bounced back to start the year.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Jan. 2022: -1.5% m/m
France’s household consumption of goods pulled back by 1.5% m/m in January after registering no growth (downwardly revised) in December.

Germany
GDP
2021Q4: -0.3% q/q
Germany’s economy did not shrink as quickly as initially reported for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Feb. 2022: 114.0
The euro zone’s economic sentiment indicator recovered by 1.3 points in February and now stands at 114, after trending downward in the past three months.

France
GDP
2021Q4: 0.7% q/q
France's GDP grew 0.7% q/q in the fourth quarter, a deceleration following a 3.1% uptick in the previous stanza.

Belgium
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2022: 8.0% y/y
Consumer price growth in Belgium surged in February, rising to 8% y/y from 7.6% y/y in January.

France
Job Seekers
Jan. 2022: 2.98 mil
France's labor market continues to impress.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Jan. 2022: -US$6.286 bil
Mexico's trade balance started the year in negative territory, despite the increase in exports.

Mexico
Economic Activity Index
Dec. 2021: 1.3% y/y
Economic activity in Mexico advanced a little further at the end of the year, although the annual rate was still low.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Jan. 2022: 1.6% m/m
U.S. durable-goods orders got a boost from transportation in January.

United States
Personal Income
Jan. 2022: 0.0% m/m
Personal income was unchanged from December to January, better than consensus expectations of a 0.3% contraction.

United States
PCE Deflator
Jan. 2022: 0.6% m/m
The Federal Reserve will have zero tolerance for any upside surprises to inflation this year, and with global energy prices rising recently, the bank won’t catch any break on inflation soon.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Jan. 2022: 1.5% m/m
Real consumer spending jumped in January, although the trend is still weak, as the increase barely more than reversed the prior decline.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
February 23: 94.5
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index climbed again this week.

Mexico
GDP
2021Q4: 1.1% y/y
Mexico’s economic weakness extended into the fourth quarter as the economy was affected by supply disruptions.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Feb. 2022: 62.8
U.S. consumer confidence took a big step back in February to yet another cyclical low despite declining infections and some improvement in the stock market, according to the final report from the University of Michigan.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Jan. 2022: 109.5
The NAR pending home sales index dropped 5.7% to 109.5 in January, compounding December’s losses, and tumbled back to its lowest level since April 2021.

Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Jan. 2022: 8.6% y/y
Russia's industrial production growth accelerated to 8.6% y/y in January from 6.1% in December, beating market expectations and marking the 11th consecutive month of growth.