Economy.com Daily Update: February 7, 2025

Today's Economy

Job growth slowed to open the year, but the unemployment rate edged lower to 4%.

Canada has more leverage with what it imports from the U.S. than what it exports.

A rebound in production in the first quarter should unfold as new orders pick up following almost two years of stagnant demand for manufactured goods.

Transatlantic relations are under strain with the potential for tariffs on European goods looming.

Commentary

The consumer price index, to be released Wednesday, will show an ongoing moderation in price growth.

January's 143,000 payroll gain is about what we expected.

Inflation bounces back sharply in Chile but rises only moderately in Uruguay.

The threat of tariffs and tougher immigration policies is increasing inflation expectations, at least in markets.

Today's Economic Indicators

India
Monetary Policy
Feb. 2025: 6.25%
In its first meeting of 2025, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.

Japan
Consumption Activity Index
Dec. 2024: -0.5% m/m
The Bank of Japan's real consumption activity index, adjusted for travel, fell 0.5% month over month in December, a much weaker reading than we had expected.

Taiwan (China)
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2025: 2.7% y/y
Taiwan’s inflation jumped to 2.7% y/y from December’s 2.1%, surpassing our and consensus expectations.

Taiwan (China)
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2025: US$10 bil
Taiwan’s trade surplus jumped to $10 billion in January from $6.1 billion in December.

Germany
Industrial Production
Dec. 2024: -2.4% m/m
Industrial production dropped 2.4% in December compared with the previous month as manufacturing slowed significantly.

Spain
Industrial Production
Dec. 2024: 0.9% m/m
Spain's industrial production increased by 0.9% month over month in December after adjusting for seasonal and calendar variations.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2025: 4.94% y/y
Chile’s inflation rebounded strongly in January, remaining above the upper limit.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2025: US$3,375.9 mil
Chile recorded another gargantuan trade surplus in January, with the US$3.376 billion nearly double our forecast.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2025: 3.59% y/y
Mexico’s inflation continued to decline at the start of the year, falling into the target’s upper range, but remained above the 3% target.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Jan. 2025: 6.6%
The labor market is starting the year on a positive note, extending its recent streak of strong performances.

United States
Employment Situation
Jan. 2025: 143,000 m/m
The labor market opened 2025 showing signs of moderation.

United States
Monthly GDP
Dec. 2024: -0.9% m/m
U.S. real monthly GDP fell 0.9% in December, according to the Moody’s Analytics monthly estimate.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Feb. 2025: 67.8
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index remains at a low level and in a narrow range.

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Dec. 2024: -0.5% m/m
In December, wholesale inventories fell 0.5% following a 0.1% decline in the prior month.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Dec. 2024: 8.4% y/y
Industrial output grew 8.4% in December compared with the previous year following a 1.6% decline in November.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Dec. 2024: $40.8 bil
The stock of consumer credit outstanding expanded by $40.8 billion in December, surging past consensus expectations for a $12.4 billion gain and even besting the Moody’s Analytics forecast for a sturdy $30.3 billion addition.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Dec. 2024:

Colombia
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2025: