Economy.com Daily Update: January 13, 2023

Today's Economy

We preview factors affecting inflation in 2023.

Consumer sentiment beat expectations to start the year, but concerns remain.

Congress will have to address government funding and the debt limit.

Softening inflation data boosted our Q4 estimate from 4.1% to 4.3%.

Commentary

The labor market remains resilient but is slowly moderating.

Industrial production gets a boost in Mexico but slides in Uruguay.

Changes in migration led to a noticeable realignment, but Equifax estimates anticipated them.

Inflation has moved past its peak, but it will take time before it falls back to target.

Today's Economic Indicators

Finland
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 9.1% y/y
Finland’s annual inflation rate stalled at 9.1% y/y in December.

Finland
Retail Sales
Nov. 2022: 0.7% m/m
Finland's seasonally adjusted real retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, recovered by 0.7% m/m in November, mostly reversing the downwardly revised 0.9% decrease in October.

France
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 5.9% y/y
France’s headline inflation rate eased to 5.9% y/y in December, down from the 6.2% rise in each of the previous two months, mainly because of a slowdown in energy prices.

Spain
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 5.7% y/y
In December, Spain's consumer price index declined to 5.7% y/y from 6.8% in November.

Sweden
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 12.3% y/y
Sweden’s inflation rate surprised to the upside in December, accelerating to 12.3% y/y from 11.5% in November.

United Kingdom
Monthly GDP
Nov. 2022: 0.1% m/m
U.K.

Italy
Industrial Production
Nov. 2022: -0.3% m/m
Italy’s industrial production fell for the third consecutive month in November and by doing so the headline index reached its lowest value since December 2021.

Euro Zone
Industrial Production
Nov. 2022: 1% m/m
In November, industrial production in the euro zone grew by 1% m/m, following a 1.9% contraction in October.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Nov. 2022: -€11.7 bil
The euro zone’s not seasonally adjusted trade deficit came in at €11.7 billion in November, expanding from €3.9 billion in the same month a year earlier.

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Dec. 2022: 0.4% m/m
The Moody’s Analytics estimate of global CPI rose by 0.4% m/m in December, adding to a downwardly revised 0.9% increase in November.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Dec. 2022: 0.4% m/m
U.S. import prices increased 0.4% in December after declining 0.7% in the prior month.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Jan. 2023: 7.75%
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru is not taking any chances.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2022Q3: 4.2% q/q SAAR
The Moody’s Analytics estimate of global GDP in the third quarter was revised slightly higher to 4.2% in annualized terms from a previously estimated 4.1%.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jan. 2023: 64.6
Consumer sentiment rose more than expected in January, according to the University of Michigan, maintaining the modest upward trend in place since it hit its record low in June.

Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 11.9% y/y
Weak consumer activity, the expansion of supply, and lower costs of food products contributed to the slowdown in the annual inflation rate to 11.9% year over year in December from 12% previously.