| Today's Economy
Europe Daily Briefing: U.K. GDP Should Rebound in Q1 Confidence should return, in line with the fading of no-deal Brexit risks. LatAm Daily Briefing: Argentina's Central Bank Cuts Again By one measure, the real policy interest rate now sits in negative territory. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Japan's Machinery Orders Fit Like a Daydream Core machinery orders surged in November, helped by recovery efforts after Typhoon Hagibis. High-Yield’s Outlook Changes to Negative More Than Doubled Changes to Positive Fourth-quarter 2019's outlook changes for U.S. investment-grade issuers included 21 reductions. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Macro Outlook: The Expansion Continues The higher asset prices rise, the more considerable the risks of a disorderly adjustment. U.S. Credit Outlook: A Strong Performance Consumer credit posted year-over-year balance growth of more than 4% in November. U.S. Regional Outlook: Demographic Leaders Expand Their Edge The South continues to lead the way in population growth. Trade Diversion Since the U.S.-China Trade War The potential gains from trade diversion are likely to be the highest for the EU, Mexico and Taiwan. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Germany
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2019: 1.5%
German consumer price inflation in December slightly exceeded expectations, accelerating to 1.5% y/y from 1.1% in November. World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2019Q3: 2.5%
Our estimate of global real GDP growth for the third quarter was revised a touch higher; activity is now expected to have risen by 2.5% in annualized terms (previously 2.4%), the same as in the previous stanza. Peru
Unemployment
Dec. 2019: 6.1%
The job market in the Lima metropolitan area closed the year on a soft note. Canada
ADP Canada National Employment Report
Dec. 2019: 46,168
The labor market registered solid payroll gains in December, according to ADP. Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Nov. 2019: -2.0%
Total new-vehicle sales in November were down again, marking a 10.3% decline from October, at 146,259 units valued at C$6,459,098 on an unadjusted basis. United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Jan. 2020: 86.1
The Moody’s Analytics Beige Book Index improved to 86.1 in January from 77.8 in November, marking the series’ first increase since summer 2019. United States
Jobless Claims
January 11: 204,000
The U.S. labor market remains strong as jobless claims are low. United States
Import and Export Prices
Dec. 2019: 0.3%
U.S. inflationary pressures remain muted. United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Jan. 2020: 17.0
Manufacturing activity improved moderately from December to January in the Federal Reserve’s Fourth District. United States
Retail Sales
Dec. 2019: 0.3%
Retail sales were strong in December, in stark contrast to the results for December 2018. United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Nov. 2019: -0.2%
The stockpile build paused in November. United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
Jan. 2020: 75
Homebuilder sentiment inched down 1 basis point to 75 in January. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
January 10: -1.47
Financial market stress decreased in the week ended January 10. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
January 10: -109 bil cubic feet
The decrease in natural gas inventories was greater than analysts expected, which will have a positive impact on prices. Singapore
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2019:
United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Nov. 2019: $22.9 bil
Net long-term capital flows increased for the third straight month in November. China
Fixed Asset Investment
Dec. 2019:
China
GDP
2019Q4:
China
Industrial Production
Dec. 2019:
China
Retail Sales
Oct. 2019:
Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2019:
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