| Today's Economy
Final Thoughts Ahead of December U.S. Employment We look for a 182,000 increase, but risks have shifted to the upside. Europe Daily Briefing: U.K. Builders in Wait-and-See Mode Recent data suggest confidence should rally in 2019. Changing Our Fed Call We now look for three rather than four rate hikes this year; risks are weighted toward even fewer. U.S. Economic Data Affected by Partial Government Shutdown for 1/3/19 Construction spending will be postponed. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Latin America Economic Preview: 7-11 January Inflation adjusted down in Brazil and Chile but rose in Mexico. Road to Recession: The Message of Financial Markets The data remain consistent with an economy that is mid-cycle but very close to tipping into a late-cycle expansion. U.S. Consumer Outlook: Sowing Seeds of Weakness Spending growth will be strong in 2019, but not in 2020. UAE Outlook: Stronger and Wiser The country is weaning itself off oil and has done much to diversify revenue sources. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
December 28: -8.5%
Mortgage applications moved down during the week ending December 28. The four-week moving average for purchase applications ticked up by 0.5%, but the four-week average for refinancing applications remains down, dropping by 0.1%. United States
Challenger Report
Dec. 2018: 43,884
Announced job cuts have dropped over the past couple of months, falling to 43,884 in December, down from 53,073 in November and 75,644 in October. United States
ADP National Employment Report
Dec. 2018: 271,000
The labor market continues to power forward. United States
Jobless Claims
December 29: 231,000
Jobless claims bounced higher in the week ended December 29, but this was likely because of seasonal factors. United States
ISM - NY Report
Dec. 2018: 65.4
The expectations of purchasing managers in New York City are not as optimistic as they were in previous months, according to the December ISM-New York Report on Business. United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Dec. 2018:
United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Dec. 2018: 54.1
After a solid run, U.S. manufacturing conditions have softened and are likely settling into a more sustainable pace of growth. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
December 28: -0.51
Financial stress increased last week despite a positive week for U.S. equity markets. Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Nov. 2018: -13.3%
Industrial output contracted 13.3% y/y in November (NSA) after a 6.8% y/y drop the previous month. Malaysia
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2018:
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