Economy.com Daily Update: January 31, 2020

Today's Economy

First-quarter U.S. GDP has a lot to overcome.

The outbreak will likely be a noticeable but temporary drag on the Canadian economy.

The economic hit disproportionately affects China; elsewhere, the U.K. leaves the EU.

Brexit, euro zone GDP and inflation, coronavirus—you name it.

Commentary

Brazil's consumer prices likely continued to rise in January.

The economic impacts in China are pronounced; the impacts abroad are rising.

Though the next few months could be rocky, risks remain modest.

Retail sales likely fell across most of the euro zone countries in December.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
GDP
2019Q4: -0.1%
The first estimate of French fourth-quarter GDP growth was a shocker; GDP unexpectedly fell by 0.1% q/q after a 0.3% increase in the third quarter.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2019: US$1.9 bil

France
Household Consumption Survey
Dec. 2019: -0.3%
France’s household expenditure on goods fell by 0.3% m/m in December.

Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2019Q4:

Germany
Retail Sales
Dec. 2019: -3.3%
Real, calendar and seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 3.3% m/m and 0.8% y/y in December.

Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2019Q4: 0.1%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in the fourth quarter, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in the third and below expectations of 0.2%.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2020: 1.4%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation rose to 1.4% y/y in January from 1.3% in December.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Dec. 2019: 11.0%
Brazil's unemployment continued to decline in December as the economy advanced further.

Chile
Employment
Dec. 2019: 7.0%
The national unemployment rate in Chile averaged 7% in the October-December rolling quarter, up from 6.7% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Dec. 2019: 4.2%
Chile’s total industry ended the year with a rebound, with manufacturing leading the recovery.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Dec. 2019: 0.6%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales index rose 0.6% in December after two months of decline.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Dec. 2019: 0.1%
Industrial product and raw materials prices give no indication of budding inflation pressures.

Canada
Industry Output
Nov. 2019: 0.1%
Canadian GDP ticked higher in November, offsetting most of the small dip in October.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2019Q4: 0.7%
Tightening in the U.S. labor market still has not translated to a meaningful acceleration in employment costs.

United States
Personal Income
Dec. 2019: 0.2%
Personal income growth moderated in December as expected.

United States
PCE Deflator
Dec. 2019: 0.3%
U.S. consumer prices perked up a little in December, but this won’t provide much relief to a Federal Reserve whose focus is increasingly on returning inflation to its 2% objective.

United States
Personal Spending
Dec. 2019: 0.1%
Real consumer spending growth moderated in December.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jan. 2020: 99.8
Consumer sentiment remains strong, and this was highlighted by its jump in late January to an eight-month high.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jan. 2020: 4.25%
Colombia’s central bank left the reference interest rate unchanged at its January meeting.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Dec. 2019: 0.8%
The agricultural prices received index increased 0.8% in December thanks to a small bump in crop prices.