Economy.com Daily Update: January 5, 2023

Today's Economy

Data released in the new year put our tracking estimate of fourth-quarter growth at 4.1% annualized.

We look for the economy to have added 215,000 jobs on net in December.

We look for the economy to have added 215,000 jobs on net last month.

The contraction at the end of 2022 will continue into 2023.

Commentary

Cooling markets for housing, oil and imported goods are among drivers of the softening outlook.

The U.S. economy is sure to have a difficult 2023 as the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively push up interest rates to quell the painfully high inflation.

Risks remain elevated, and the price of natural gas will remain high throughout 2023.

We expect job gains continued to cool in December with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Dec. 2022: 30.3
Japan’s consumer confidence index rose to 30.3 in December from 28.6 in November.

Singapore
Retail Sales
Nov. 2022: 6.2%
Singapore’s retail sales were up 6.2% y/y in November, slowing a touch from October’s 10.3% increase.

Thailand
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 5.9% y/y
Thailand's inflation rose 5.9% y/y in December, up from 5.5% in November.

Austria
Retail Sales
Nov. 2022: -0.1% y/y
Austrian retail sales tilted downwards by 0.1% in November, following October's sharp fall of 4.8%.

Colombia
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 13.1% y/y
Colombia’s annual inflation rate accelerated in December amid rising food prices and the weaker peso.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Nov. 2022: 1.4% y/y
Brazil’s industrial production decelerated in November after election spending ended.

United States
Challenger Report
Dec. 2022: 43,651
Job cut announcements from U.S.-based employers fell in December to 43,651, down 43% from the 76,835 cuts announced the month prior.

United States
Jobless Claims
December 31: 204,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance are falling again.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Nov. 2022: C$ 0.041 bil
Canada's merchandise exports fell 2.3% in November while imports decreased 2.1%.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Nov. 2022: -$61.5 bil
The deficit on goods and services narrowed by $16.3 billion to $61.5 billion in November, as imports fell by much more than exports from the prior month.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
December 30: -0.01
Financial stress eased in the last week of December, capping off an otherwise challenging year for markets.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
December 30: -221 bil cubic feet
Last week’s decline in gas stocks fell short of analyst predictions, which could put some downward pressure on gas prices.

United States
Oil Inventories
December 30: 420.6 mil barrels
A smaller-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories could put some upward pressure on oil prices.

United States
Vehicle Sales - BEA
Dec. 2022: 13.3 mil, SAAR
U.S. new-vehicle sales declined again in December.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Nov. 2022: 1.4% y/y
Industrial output grew 1.4% year on year in November NSA after 3.6% in the previous month.

China
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2022: