Economy.com Daily Update: July 15, 2022

Today's Economy

Retail sales, industrial production and business inventories put Q2 GDP tracking at -0.5%.

The focus should be on the terminal level, not the speed, of the BoC's rate increases.

Mario Draghi will give a speech either reaffirming his resignation or seeking a vote of confidence.

Supply issues continue to depress the market.

Commentary

Mexico and Uruguay see solid upticks in industrial production.

Next week, the ECB will unveil its anti-fragmentation tool.

China's GDP growth slowed in the June quarter; other indicators were less than rosy.

Russia has been squeezing natural gas deliveries into Europe for several months, and yet reserves are replenishing.

Today's Economic Indicators

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2022: US$5.09 bil
Indonesia’s foreign trade surplus widened to $5.1 billion in June from $2.9 billion in May, exceeding our expectation of a $4.3 billion surplus.

Finland
Retail Sales
May. 2022: -0.1% m/m
Finland's seasonally adjusted retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, decreased by 0.1% in May after rising by a downwardly revised 0.4% in April.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2022: 8.0% y/y
Italy’s headline year-on-year inflation rate accelerated to 8% in June, confirming preliminary estimates.

Euro Zone
External Trade
May. 2022: -€26.3 bil
The euro zone’s nonseasonally adjusted trade balance fell into a deficit of €26.3 billion this May from a surplus of €12 billion in May 2021.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Jun. 2022: 0.2% m/m
U.S. import prices rose a little less than we anticipated but won’t have any implications for monetary policy.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Jul. 2022: 11.1
The July Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests that manufacturers in New York feel better about the present but are increasingly concerned about what the future holds.

United States
Retail Sales
Jun. 2022: 1.0%, m/m
Retail sales rebounded strongly from their disappointing May performance, though some of the gain appears to be price-driven rather than due to more merchandise being sold.

Canada
International Transactions in Securities
May. 2022: C$2.3 bil
Increased market volatility has dramatically slowed the pace of financial flows into and out of Canada.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
May. 2022: -4.9% y/y
Purchases of new cars and trucks in Canada increased in May after falling from March to April.

Canada
Wholesale Trade
May. 2022: 1.6% m/m
Wholesale trade rebounded strongly in May, regaining all of its April losses and then some.

India
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2022: -US$26.2 bil
India’s merchandise trade deficit increased in June, rising to $26.2 billion from $24.3 billion the previous month.

United States
Industrial Production
Jun. 2022: -0.2% m/m
U.S. industrial production slipped 0.2% in June after being revised lower in May.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
May. 2022: 1.4% m/m
Business inventories increased by 1.4% from April to May.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
July 13: 89.2
The U.S.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jul. 2022: 51.1
U.S. consumer sentiment remains historically low, according to the University of Michigan.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2022Q1: 2.9% q/q SAAR
The Moody’s Analytics estimate of global GDP increased by 0.7% q/q in the first three months of 2022.

Colombia
Industrial Production
May. 2022: 46.2% y/y
Manufacturing output continued to expand in May supported by robust domestic demand conditions.

Peru
Unemployment
Jun. 2022: 6.8%
The unemployment rate in the Lima metropolitan area fell to 6.8% in the April-to-June rolling period, but the decline was for the wrong reason.