Economy.com Daily Update: July 16, 2021

Today's Economy

Consumers keep doing their part.

Supply chain issues and so-so aggregate demand growth have been a headwind to manufacturing.

Momentum has helped to support the bull market.

June's slowdown in price growth was likely temporary.

Commentary

U.K. retail sales will return to positive territory as spending normalizes.

Recent economic data have shown robust growth despite a severe third wave of COVID-19 infections.

Japan's growth will cool because of new lockdowns and fading base effects.

GDP accelerated in the second quarter, but headwinds have increased for the second half.

Today's Economic Indicators

Euro Zone
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 1.9%
The euro zone’s harmonized index of consumer prices increased by 1.9% y/y in June, confirming the preliminary estimate.

Euro Zone
External Trade
May. 2021: €7.5 bil
The euro zone’s not seasonally adjusted trade surplus of goods came in at €7.5 billion in May, down from €8.9 billion in May 2020.

Austria
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 2.8%
Austrian inflation pressures mounted in June, as prices increased by 0.5% from May.

Canada
Housing Starts
Jun. 2021: 282 ths
Canada's residential construction data for June came in a touch weaker than in May.

Canada
Wholesale Trade
May. 2021: 0.5%
Persistent strong demand for goods, inventory rebuilding and rising prices helped lift wholesale trade to a record high.

Canada
International Transactions in Securities
May. 2021: C$20.8 bil
Foreign investors poured into Canadian securities in May.

United States
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: 0.6%, m/m
Retail sales unexpectedly rose in June, overcoming the drop in auto sales that was caused by supply issues rather than softening demand.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
July 14: 90.8
The CNN Business/Moody’s Analytics Back-to-Normal Index moved in the right direction this week from a revised 90.5 to 90.8.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jul. 2021: 80.8
U.S. consumer sentiment fell again in July as inflation expectations rose, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary report.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
May. 2021: 0.5% m/m
Business inventories increased in May.

United States
Median usual weekly earnings
2021Q2: -1.2% y/y
The pandemic is complicating year-over-year comparisons of wages, but faster inflation is a clear corrosive on real wage growth.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2021Q1: 3.1% q/q SAAR

United States
Regional and State Employment
Jun. 2021:
The June employment report for state and regional economies put the second quarter in the books, and although the number of jobs added has been relatively volatile on a month-to-month basis, the recovery in the labor market is generally trending in the right direction.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
May. 2021: -$30.2 bil
Net long-term capital flows turned negative in May for the first time in over a year.