Economy.com Daily Update: July 18, 2024

Today's Economy

The European Central Bank held its policy rate steady at its July meeting, but additional cuts this year remain on the table.

The U.S. and Europe are not alone in ramping up tariffs on Chinese products.

Despite disruptions from May flooding, the economy is in good shape this year.

The European Central Bank keeps rates steady; eyes are on sticky inflation.

Commentary

The Republican National Committee approved a policy platform, receiving a full endorsement from presidential candidate Trump.

Inflation has decelerated to target, and election results signal political stability, but there are reasons for caution.

The world economy is doing better than expected, but a lot could go wrong.

The presidential election is looking better for Trump.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2024: MYR14.3 bil
Malaysia’s trade surplus widened to MYR14.3 billion in June from MYR10.1 billion in May, exceeding our and consensus forecasts.

United Kingdom
Unemployment
May. 2024: 4.4%
The U.K.'s unemployment rate in the three months to May was 4.4%, up 0.24 percentage point from the previous three-month period.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Employment Situation
Jun. 2024: 3%
Hong Kong’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 3% for the April-to-June period as expected, marking the fourth straight three-month period that the indicator has remained unchanged.

Euro Zone
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2024: 4.25%
As expected, the European Central Bank did not change its policy stance nor provide guidance about future decisions at its July meeting. We still expect the evolution of inflation to allow cuts in each of the remaining meetings this year, which would total three more cuts.

United States
Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index
Jul. 2024: 27.8
The Moody’s Analytics Beige Book Index held steady at 27.8 in July.

United States
Jobless Claims
July 13: 243,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance are on the rise again.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Jul. 2024: 13.9
July’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Philly Fed shows a healthy expansion in activity from the month before.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
July 12: -0.79
U.S. financial market stress slightly increased in the week ended July 12, with the St.

United States
Conference Board Leading Indicators
Jun. 2024: -0.2%
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index declined again in June.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
July 12: 10 bil cubic feet
Gas storage rose by much less than analysts were anticipating, which could give prices a little bit of a lift.

Argentina
Economic Activity Indicator
May. 2024: 2.28% y/y
The statistics office’s monthly economic activity index, IMAE, increased 2.3% year on year in May after declining 1.6% in the previous month.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
May. 2024: -$54.6 bil
Net long-term international capital flows fell by $54.6 billion in May, down from an inflow of $123.3 billion in April.

Japan
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2024: