Today's Economy Economic Roundup: Initial Claims Tick Higher; 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Moves Even Lower Don't read too much into claims while concerns about the Delta variant are weighing on yields. Capital Market View: Forecast Tweak Has High-Yield Spreads Tighter Spreads will remain tight in the second half of this year, but will widen in 2022. New Fiscal Assumptions, Modest Tweaks to July U.S. Baseline There was a small downward revision to our GDP forecast for this year, the first in a while. LatAm Daily Briefing: Demand-Push Inflation Excess liquidity in Brazil, Chile and Mexico is driving demand. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary Australia Risk Matrix Update: COVID-19 Keeps Threatening Adding to the economy’s vulnerability to local infection outbreaks is the sluggish domestic vaccination program. South Bears Brunt of New Virus Cases U.S. regional and local infection rates and economic data depend much on the uptake of vaccinations. China Risk Matrix Update: Stabilizing Growth, Rising Uncertainty Accelerated vaccine rollouts have boosted consumer confidence but not enough to bring life back to precrisis normal. This Week in the COVID-19 Recovery The economic recovery must overcome several challenges, but they all are manageable. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Switzerland Unemployment rate Jun. 2021: 3.1% Swiss unemployment continued its downward trend in June, declining to 3.1% from 3.2% in May. Malaysia Monetary policy Jul. 2021: 1.75% Bank Negara Malaysia kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in July's meeting, in line with our forecast. Ireland Consumer Price Index Jun. 2021: 1.6% Ireland's CPI was up 1.6% y/y in June, thanks in part to the lower base from a year earlier. Mexico Consumer Price Index Jun. 2021: 5.88% y/y Mexico’s inflation remained high in June with no signs of receding. Chile Consumer Price Index Jun. 2021: 3.80% y/y Annual inflation in Chile rose above the 3% target in June as prices faced pressures. Brazil Consumer Price Index Jun. 2021: 8.35% y/y Annual inflation continued to climb high in June despite the monetary reaction implemented by the central bank. United States Jobless Claims July 03: 373,000 U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly ticked higher, but there is no cause for concern; new filings can be volatile this time of year because of seasonal adjustment issues around the Fourth of July holiday. Netherlands Consumer Price Index Jun. 2021: 2.0% y/y Inflation in the Netherlands moderated to 2% in June. United States CreditForecast.com Household Credit Report Jun. 2021: 5.52% y/y The consumer credit market witnessed explosive growth in June, increasing $145 billion to $14.5 trillion outstanding. United States St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index July 02: -1.02 Financial stress edged lower last week. United States Natural Gas Storage Report July 02: 16 bil cubic feet The increase in gas stocks last week was below analyst predictions, suggesting that this report should contribute slightly to higher prices. United States Oil Inventories July 02: 445.5 mil barrels Another larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories will give extra momentum to already-high oil prices. United States Consumer Credit (G19) May. 2021: $35.3 bil Consumer credit expanded by $35.3 billion in May, nearly doubling consensus expectations for an $18.4 billion increase. China Consumer Price Index Jun. 2021: China Producer Price Index Jun. 2021: » VIEW MORE ECONOMIC INDICATORS |