Economy.com Daily Update: June 27, 2024

Today's Economy

The increase is concerning but not yet proof that the tireless U.S. labor market is relenting.

The Fed's favorite inflation measure likely inched close to its targeted range.

The goal is attainable if the incoming administration acts decisively.

Construction saved the first quarter, but won’t be there for the second.

Commentary

Both presidential campaigns have upped their efforts to drum up enthusiasm and drive their constituents to the ballot box in November.

Government investment will increase as federal funds fuel infrastructure projects.

Deceleration in consumer credit volumes will be broad-based.

A two-speed economy creates vulnerabilities.

Today's Economic Indicators

Philippines
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2024: 6.5%
As expected, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept its overnight reverse repo rate steady at 6.5% at its fourth meeting of the year.

Spain
Retail Sales
May. 2024: -0.6% m/m
In seasonally-adjusted and calendar-adjusted terms, Spain’s retail sales contracted 0.6% month over month in May.

Sweden
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2024: 3.75%
For the first time in the current policy cycle, Sweden's Riksbank left its monetary policy rate unchanged at 3.75% after cutting rates at the previous meeting.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Jun. 2024: 95.9
The euro zone’s economic sentiment indicator fell to 95.9 in June from 96.1 in May but remained in line with the average recorded since the start of the year.

Belgium
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2024: 3.7% y/y
In June, Belgium’s CPI inflation rate accelerated to 3.7% year on year from 3.4% previously.

Mexico
Employment Situation
May. 2024: 2.6% Unemployment
Mexico's unemployment rate in May showed no significant change, maintaining the historical low as the economy continued to perform well, buoyed by the election year's political cycle.

Mexico
Trade Balance
May. 2024: US1.991 bil
Mexico's trade balance turned positive in May as the value of exports accelerated and advanced faster than that of imports.

United States
GDP
2024Q1: 1.4%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. economic growth slowed further in the first quarter, dropping to below potential after two quarters of above-trend growth.

United States
Industry GDP
2024Q1: 1.2 ppt, SAAR
In the first quarter, private industries contributed 1.2 percentage points to the 1.4% annualized expansion in real GDP.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
May. 2024: 0.6% m/m
Advance estimates from the Census Bureau show that wholesale inventories increased 0.6% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
May. 2024: -$100.6 bil
Advance data show the U.S. goods trade deficit widened in May for a fifth consecutive month to $100.6 billion, a $2.7 billion increase over the April deficit. The value of exports fell 2.7% in May, following a 1.3% rise in April, while the value of imports returned only 0.7% following the previous month's 3.1% increase.

United States
Jobless Claims
June 22: 233,000
Jobless claims have drifted upward.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
May. 2024: 0.1% m/m
Durable goods orders in the U.S., according to the government’s advanced estimate, rose 0.1% from April to May.

Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Apr. 2024: 3.7% y/y
The number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer fell in April by 22,700 (-0.1%) after lukewarm consecutive gains in the previous three months.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
June 21: -0.79
U.S. financial stress inched higher in the holiday-shortened week ended June 21, with the St.

United States
Pending Home Sales
May. 2024: -2.1% m/m
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index fell again in May, losing 2.1% from the month prior.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
June 21: 52 bil cubic feet
Last week’s build in natural gas storage matched analyst predictions, indicating that the increase will not play a role in pricing.

United States
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Jun. 2024: -8
Manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve’s Tenth District worsened in June, according to the Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Survey.

Mexico
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2024: 11.00%
The Central Bank of Mexico continued its monetary pause in June for the second consecutive time, as inflation persisted above target levels and the peso depreciated.

South Korea
Industrial Production
May. 2024:

South Korea
Retail Sales
May. 2024:

Japan
Employment Situation
May. 2024:

Japan
Industrial Production
May. 2024: