Economy.com Daily Update: June 28, 2019

Today's Economy

We have fairly low expectations fro the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20.

No deal but an agreement to keep talking is the most likely scenario.

A diplomatic dispute has continued to escalate behind the scenes.

A mean-reversion is warranted following an unsustainable first-quarter jump.

Commentary

We look for job growth to have bounced back in June, but the unemployment rate likely rose.

The euro zone’s job market remains robust despite the recent drop in confidence and growth numbers.

Japan's business sentiment likely remained down in the dumps in the June quarter.

Rate cut or not, the Federal Reserve’s easing bias is a relief for the region.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
Household Consumption Survey
May. 2019: 0.4%
France's household goods consumption beat expectations and rose by 0.4% m/m in May, though on the downside was that April’s rise was revised down to only 0.3% from a previous estimate of 0.8%.

Spain
Retail Sales
May. 2019: 0.7%
Spain’s retail sales growth reversed trend and jumped up 0.7% in May in seasonally adjusted terms.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
May. 2019: US$1.4 bil

Spain
GDP
2019Q1: 0.7%
Spanish GDP accelerated in the first quarter of 2019, with growth up 0.7% on a quarterly basis, which is slightly faster than the fourth quarter’s 0.6% gain.

United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2019Q1: 0.5%
Final numbers confirmed that U.K.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2019: 1.2%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation held steady at 1.2% y/y in June, below our expectations of a small increase.

Brazil
Employment Situation
May. 2019: 12.3%
Brazil’s unemployment adjusted downward a little more in May after a steady rebound in the first quarter, when economic activity decelerated.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
May. 2019: 0.1%
The Industrial Product Price Index increased a modest 0.1% from April to May.

Canada
Industry Output
Apr. 2019: 0.3%
Canadian GDP recorded a healthy month in April, although growth slightly lagged March’s strong pace.

United States
Personal Income
May. 2019: 0.5%
U.S. nominal personal income growth remains steady, although the key wages and salaries component appears to be losing some steam.

United States
PCE Deflator
May. 2019: 0.2%
The May inflation data likely won't temper either the Federal Reserve’s dovishness or easing bias.

United States
Personal Spending
May. 2019: 0.2%
Real consumer spending growth has been erratic since late last year, but the swings are moderating.

Chile
Employment
May. 2019: 7.1%
The national unemployment rate averaged 7.1% in the March-May rolling quarter, up from 7% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
May. 2019: 1.87%
Manufacturing production in Chile reported an advance in May following an annual contraction in the previous month.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jun. 2019: 98.2
Consumer sentiment lost ground in June, but did not fully reverse its May increase, according to the University of Michigan.