Economy.com Daily Update: June 29, 2018

Today's Economy

U.S. real consumer spending disappoints in May but core PCE finally hits 2%.

We review the data and potential impact of cannabis legalization in Canada.

Real spending is now tracking 2.7% at an annualized rate.

It won't be spooked by higher headline inflation.

Commentary

We expect the euro zone unemployment rate to dip further, to 8.4%.

Global trade tensions likely dampened business sentiment in China and Japan.

Inflation moves up in Brazil, Chile and Peru and stays elevated in Uruguay.

Long-run prospects for the budget have improved slightly, but remain bleak.

Today's Economic Indicators

Indonesia
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2018: 5.25%
Bank Indonesia isn't taking any prisoners when it comes to stabilising the rupiah and stemming capital outflows.

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Jun. 2018: 43.7
Japan's consumer confidence held up better than expected in June.

Germany
Retail Sales
May. 2018: -2.1%
German retail sales disappointed in May.

Thailand
Private Consumption
May. 2018: 5.7%
Private consumption grew 5.7% y/y in May, after a 5.2% rise in April.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
May. 2018: US$2.7 bil
Thailand’s trade surplus rebounded to US$2.7 billion in May after narrowing sharply to US$234 million in April.

Germany
Unemployment
Jun. 2018: 5.2%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% in June after falling to this record low in May.

United Kingdom
GDP Expenditure Breakdown
2018Q1: 0.2%
The U.K.’s final GDP estimate brought some cheer following the disappointing two previous weeks.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2018: 2.0%
Euro zone inflation accelerated to 2% in June, from 1.9% in May, overshooting the consensus of no change.

Brazil
Employment Situation
May. 2018: 12.7%
Brazil’s unemployment reported a mild decrease in the three months ending in May, despite the prolonged workers' strike.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
May. 2018: 1.0%
The Industrial Product Price Index increased 1% in May, primarily because of higher prices for energy and petroleum products.

Canada
Industry Output
Apr. 2018: 0.1%
The Canadian economy continued its steady growth in April, though it has slowed slightly.

United States
Personal Income
May. 2018: 0.4%
Nominal personal income rose by 0.4% in May, better than the downwardly revised 0.2% gain in April and in line with our forecast.

United States
PCE Deflator
May. 2018: 0.2%
The May PCE deflators were not overly eventful.

United States
Personal Spending
May. 2018: 0.0%
Real consumer spending failed to increase in May, but coming on the heels of two months of strong growth, the trend remains favorable.

Chile
Employment
May. 2018: 7.0%
The national unemployment rate averaged 7% in the March-May rolling quarter, unchanged from a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
May. 2018: 1.76%
Chile’s industry continued to advance in May, although with remarkable moderation.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jun. 2018: 98.2
The June final consumer sentiment index showed modest improvement, gaining 0.2 point relative to May, though the index retreated from its midmonth report.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
June 22: 148.2
The U.S. economy is in good shape and economic prospects for the coming quarters are positive.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2018: 4.25%
Colombia’s central bank board left the reference interest rate unchanged at June’s meeting.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
May. 2018: -1.2%
According to Argentina’s statistics office (Indec), industrial output contracted 1.2% y/y in May (NSA) after a 3.4% expansion in the previous month.