Economy.com Daily Update: June 3, 2020

Today's Economy

The May read could understate the true extent of disinflation pressures.

We still expect joblessness to rise further into the summer.

The economy contracted in the first quarter, and risks abound.

The Dow Jones Transportation index and PHLX index saw gains.

Commentary

The global pandemic and simultaneous oil price slump present a unique challenge.

The slowing of global growth over the past decade will make post-crisis deleveraging all the more challenging.

The number of new COVID-19 cases is falling and phased reopenings are underway.

The severe downturn that has engulfed the global economy since the beginning of the year likely hit bottom in May.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
Apr. 2020: 2.57%
The Moody’s Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate held steady at 2.57% in April 2020.

Germany
Unemployment
May. 2020: 6.3%
The German unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in May from 5.8% in April.

Italy
Unemployment
Apr. 2020: 6.3%
Preliminary estimates show that COVID-19’s impact on the Italian labor market intensified in April.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Apr. 2020: 7.3%
The euro zone’s jobless rate rose to 7.3% in April from a downwardly revised 7.1% in March, beating expectations for a much sharper increase.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
May 29: -3.9%
Mortgage applications decreased by 3.9% over the week of May 29, after increasing by 2.7% in the previous week.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Apr. 2020: -25.5%
Brazil’s industry plunged severely in April as the economic paralysis extended along the month as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

United States
ADP National Employment Report
May. 2020: -2,760,000
The historic labor market slide is ongoing.

Peru
Consumer Price Index
May. 2020: 1.8%
The Lima CPI rose 1.78% in May on a year-ago basis, undershooting the mid-range of the central bank's 1% to 3% target for the ninth consecutive month.

World
Moody's Analytics Global HPI
2020Q1: 6.9%
The Moody’s Analytics nominal house price index was up 6.9% on a year-ago basis in the first quarter, compared with a 6% gain in the prior three months.

Canada
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2020: 0.25%
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged, but in a more surprising twist it announced that it is dialing back some of the extraordinary stimulus programs implemented at the start of the COVID-19 crisis.

United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
May. 2020: 45.4
The U.S. nonmanufacturing sector contracted for the second consecutive month in May, but the good news is that several measures improved over the month, indicating a slower contraction.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Apr. 2020: -13.0%
The worst of manufacturing’s decline has likely occurred, and a recovery should take hold now.

United States
Oil Inventories
May 29: 532.3 mil barrels
A surprise draw in crude oil inventories will provide a lift for oil prices.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
May 29: 219.9
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index increased from a revised 218.8 to 219.9 in the week ended May 29.

Australia
Datium Insights - Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Price Index
May. 2020: 2.3%
Australia's used-vehicle prices rebounded in May from the previous month’s steep decline, but price appreciation is far from where it was before the pandemic.

Uruguay
Consumer Price Index
May. 2020: 11.1%
Uruguayan inflation accelerated slightly in May, rising to 11.1% from 10.9% in the prior month.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Apr. 2020: -1.2%
The global semiconductor market is holding well and has shown early signs of resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Malaysia
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2020:

Australia
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2020:

Australia
Retail Sales
Apr. 2020: