Economy.com Daily Update: June 30, 2017

Today's Economy

We will return on Wednesday.

Some temporary factors have weighed on U.S. core inflation, but the trend isn't encouraging.

Policymakers hint at a rate hike, and financial markets are responding.

Japan's Q2 GDP tracking estimate is 1.9% annualized.

Commentary

Unemployment likely rose in June but for the right reason.

The economy is set for an expansion despite hiccups.

Investors will keep an eye on the data for hints of policy changes.

Japan's Tankan survey showed improvement in Q2, but further gains in the second half are unlikely.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Housing Starts
May. 2017: -0.3%
Japan's housing market is showing signs of slowing down after strong growth in 2016.

France
Household Consumption Survey
May. 2017: 1.0%
French household consumption was a major surprise in May, surging by 1% m/m and building on a 0.4% increase previously.

Germany
Retail Sales
May. 2017: 0.5%
German retail sales gained in the middle of the second quarter, up 0.5% m/m from April, when they fell by 0.2%.

Thailand
Private Consumption
May. 2017: 2.4%
Thailand’s consumption is being boosted by higher tourist arrivals.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
May. 2017: US$2.2 bil
Stronger global demand will support Thailand’s trade position through the second half of 2017.

Germany
Unemployment
Jun. 2017: 5.7%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment remained at 5.7% in June, after it fell to this record low in May.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2017: 1.3%
The euro zone's annual harmonized inflation slowed to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in the previous month.

Brazil
Employment Situation
May. 2017: 13.3%
Unemployment remained high in May, although it decreased somewhat as the economy advanced in the first quarter.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
May. 2017: -0.2%
Weaker energy prices sent both the Industrial Product Price Index and the Raw Materials Price Index lower in May.

Canada
Industry Output
Apr. 2017: 0.2%
Canadian GDP rose 0.2% in April, a slight deceleration from March's 0.5% gain.

United States
Personal Income
May. 2017: 0.4%
Growth in nominal personal income picked up slightly to 0.4% in May from a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in April, beating our forecast for a 0.1% increase.

United States
PCE Deflator
May. 2017: -0.1%
The path toward stronger inflation has been bumpy, but the recent step back may not have significant implications for U.S. monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve has turned its attention to financial stability.

United States
Personal Spending
May. 2017: 0.1%
Consumer spending growth remained modest in May.

Chile
Employment
May. 2017: 7.0%
The national unemployment rate averaged 7% in the March-May rolling quarter, up from 6.8% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
May. 2017: 1.9%
Chile’s manufacturers reported a mild rebound in May after the negative effect of Easter in April.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jun. 2017: 95.1
Consumer sentiment dropped 2 points in June, falling to 95.1, moderately better than the preliminary report earlier this month.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
June 23: 143.1
The U.S. economy will continue to expand over the coming quarters; however, gains will moderate as the expansion matures.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2017: